The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Carolina Panthers players heading into their matchup with the Dallas Cowboys to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bryce Young, QB
The touchdown pass thrown on a frozen rope with elite anticipation to Xavier Legette last week against the Dolphins was a work of art, but there simply aren’t enough plays like that. Bryce Young has failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of five contests this season and continues to struggle with consistency (5.5 yards per attempt).
I love that he’s weighing Tetairoa McMillan down with volume, and the surprisingly effective run game was great to see, but for fantasy purposes, what needs to happen, even in this perfect matchup, for Young to be worth a look?
He’d have to be close to perfect. The odds are good that the QB you’ve been using weekly will be active this week, and that makes exploiting this matchup (24+ fantasy points allowed to every quarterback they’ve faced this season) difficult.
Young ran for 40 yards in Week 1 against the Jaguars, and if you told me that was projectable, I’d listen. That would make him a slightly lesser version of Justin Fields, where the points have the potential to pile up via WR1 targets and cheap plays on the ground.
But that’s not the case. Over the past month, he has 14 rushing yards total, and if the big plays aren’t going to happen through the air for this offense (held without a 30-yard completion in three straight and four of five), I simply can’t get there.
I’ve juiced the numbers as much as I can with Dallas coming to town, and Young is my QB16 for Week 6.
Chuba Hubbard, RB
Chuba Hubbard (calf) missed just his fifth career game last week, and the hope is that he’s good to assume his lead role in a matchup that is as good as it gets.
Thus far, Hubbard is roughly two PPR points per game behind where he finished last season, but that’s more of a Panthers stat than one for their RB1. This season, he has actually produced 1.2% more than expectations, given his usage, up from his 2.6% below mark in 2021.
I don’t think we are looking at a game-changer as much as a high-floor player, but there certainly is value in that, and that’s why he remains in my top 20 for the rest of the season.
Rico Dowdle, RB
Peak behind the curtain:
“Wow, 97 scrimmage yards in the first half for Rico Dowdle. Save for if he falls off after the half but still has strong counting numbers.”
That was a note I jotted down in real time during the Panthers game last week.
As it turns out, it was noteworthy, but for a different reason: he was better in the second half of the win over the Dolphins!
When all was said and done, the Chuba Hubbard replacement racked up 234 yards of offense and was the fantasy story of the week.
Now what? We saw him clear 1,000 rushing yards with Dallas last season, but that was more of a volume thing than anything impressive talent-wise (3.7% production below expectation). He certainly looked the part of a game-changer last week (+62.8%), though the opponent should be noted.
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I’m not sure the performance was overly predictive for Dowdle. But with Hubbard (calf) entering this week with a ‘day-to-day’ plan and another ultra-enticing matchup ahead (sixth most PPR RB points allowed), we might get a chance to use him for another week with top-20 expectations.
Carolina’s lead back has gotten his hands on the ball at least 19 times in three of five games, and because I think this game will be competitive, such a projection is very possible for Dowdle should Hubbard miss another game.
If that’s not the case, we might be looking at a 60/40 type of split in a below-average offense where you’re not comfortable playing either.
Jalen Coker, WR
Dave Canalas said last week that the plan is to open the 21-day return window for Jalen Coker (quad) ahead of action this week.
This obviously isn’t a player who needs to be rostered, but he did average 14.9 yards per catch last season, and the Panthers offense needs all the explosive potential they can get.
The immediate matchups aren’t too favorable, but could a 3-10 Carolina team prioritize all its young talent after its Week 14 bye? If that’s the case, matchups with the Saints and Buccaneers in Weeks 15-16 are interesting from a roster depth perspective as you navigate the playoffs.
Not a must-add right now, but I’m not losing track of his name as the weather turns.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR
The usage profile for Tetairoa McMillan is that of a WR2, while the offense he is heading profiles as a full fade. This is how we land in the middle, with him being a fine weekly option.
Through five weeks, McMillan has cleared 100 air yards four times and actually saw his slot usage hit a season high in the win over the Dolphins.
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We know that he can win downfield, so that uptick in slot snaps has me interested in a flow-raising type of way. The vertical routes are going to continue to be there, but in this Bryce Young world, it’s hard to bank on those.
McMillan caught 75% of his targets on Sunday (September: 51.4%), and if the efficiency increases even a little, the eighth overall pick can trend closer to my weekly WR2 tier.
That’s more of a long-term view: if you’re earning 8-10 targets against and playing the Cowboys, you’re a must-start in all formats, that much we know.
Xavier Legette, WR
A hamstring cost Xavier Legette two games, but he returned in grand fashion. Scoring his first touchdown in 11 months.
It was a beautiful throw from Young, and plays like that are a part of the developmental process, but they are so few and far between that it doesn’t require your attention.
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Legette has turned 107 routes into 39 receiving yards. That’s a tick over one yard per route, and football games aren’t nearly long enough to turn that into anything of note, especially as a part of an offense that is rarely in scoring position.
If you want to go this direction as a cheap way to attack the Cowboys in DFS, be my guest. It opens up a lot of flexibility, and that’s valuable with two teams on a bye and five games off the main slate.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE
Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and is going to miss “multiple weeks”.
The 22-year-old tight end sparked in Week 2 against the Cardinals with seven catches, but even that came in that chaotic comeback attempt where Young threw 30 (!) passes in the fourth quarter.
I continue to think there is something in this profile. The blend of size and athleticism is that of an asset in this league, especially for an offense that is theoretically in the process of building. His target share, albeit in a small sample, was improved last season, and that’s impressive with an aDOT that was up 25.4% from his rookie campaign.
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McMillan is going to be the alpha target earner in this offense for years to come, but after that, we are looking at a lot of middling talents without much proof of concept in the target-earning department.
Sanders doesn’t need to be held onto in redraft leagues if he was ever on a roster in the first place. Maybe he can be a streaming option in the second half of this season, but we will address that when we see that he is fully healthy and involved.
