The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Atlanta Falcons players heading into their matchup with the Buffalo Bills to help you craft a winning lineup.
Michael Penix Jr., QB
I was hopeful that we’d see Michael Penix build on his finish to last season, but we aren’t getting any of it.
In his four games this season, he’s totaled just three touchdown passes while misfiring on 19-of-26 deep passes (zero touchdowns and one interception). The rushing has disappeared (21 yards in Week 1 against the Buccaneers, 10 yards since), and while he’s funneling looks to Drake London, that’s all he’s doing that matters in our game.
The Falcons have games against the Dolphins and Panthers before Thanksgiving: the best-case scenario is that we see some signs of life in this game that give us some confidence in using him as a streamer in those spots.
Bijan Robinson, RB
Penix hasn’t done a ton to demand respect from opposing defenses, and it just doesn’t matter.
Through four games, Bijan Robinson has as many 10+ yard runs as attempts that have failed to gain yardage, something that is difficult to comprehend with the attention that is paid to him by opponents.
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Last season, Atlanta did a great job of featuring their stars post bye (Robinson: 90+ rush yards and multiple targets in every game following the off week in 2024). With a few favorable matchups left, there’s a real chance that Atlanta is home to the overall RB1 this year and entering 2026.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
I remain steadfast in my belief that Tyler Allgeier is one of the 32 best running backs in the NFL, but that doesn’t matter if you’re playing behind a top-five guy, and that’s the situation in Atlanta.
Allgeier has been handed the ball 10+ times in every game this season besides the 30-0 loss to the Panthers. He owns a very narrow range of outcomes, and that can be useful in ultra-specific spots, but with just two teams on a bye, hopefully Week 6 isn’t one of those spots for you.
He’s one of my three favorite handcuffs in the game, but that doesn’t mean he’s holding standalone value in most situations.
Drake London, WR
After failing to finish any of the first three weeks as a top 20 receiver, Drake London broke out in Week 4 against the Commanders with 25 PPR points on his way to a WR5 finish.
Is it here to stay?
The Bills traditionally do well to take away chunk plays, so counting on a 43-yard catch in consecutive games is a long shot, but the volume is something that projects as stable and keeps London in the WR1 discussion.
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His 38.5% target share in the game entering the bye was obviously good to see, and we saw the Falcons work hard to get their WR1 involved in the first week post-bye last season with a 42.1% share.
You can count on 9-11 targets, and that’s exactly what you drafted him for this summer. You can start London with plenty of confidence this week and for years to come, until further notice.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE
Kyle Pitts caught all five of his targets for 70 yards and scored against the Commanders in Week 4 ahead of the Week 5 bye, his second top-7 finish at the position in September.
This, to me at least, looks different than Pitts’ tease runs of years past. His PPR points per target are trending toward a career high, and the efficiency is in a good spot to sustain, given his target diet.
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2021: 11.2 aDOT
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2022: 13.7 aDOT
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2023: 12.0 aDOT
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2024: 8.7 aDOT
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2025: 5.6 aDOT
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We’ve been fed the “he’s in the wide receivers room” propaganda for years now, and while that role came with theoretical upside, he’s been unable to cash in on any of it. Reasonable minds can disagree as to why the struggles happened, but they happened and showed no signs of correcting.
This chain-moving plan is going to keep Pitts’ ceiling case below that of a top 5 tight end, and that’s OK if it means locking him into top 12 status.
Like it or not, this is a different version of Pitts, and this version is a lineup lock due to the state of the position.
