The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Seattle Seahawks players heading into their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars to help you craft a winning lineup.
Sam Darnold, QB
We were all worried about Sam Darnold leaving the insulation provided by Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, but he’s basically a carbon copy of the 2024 version of himself through five weeks.
2024 Darnold
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8.5 air yards per pass
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2.2% interception rate
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23.3% deep pass rate
2025 Darnold
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8.4 air yards per pass
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2.2% interception rate
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21.6% deep pass rate
He’s sending 8.6 targets per game to his alpha receiver and currently holds a deep passer rating that is 31.4 points higher than last season. With the Jags’ turnover-based defense that thrives on big plays, how uncomfortable will they be able to make Darnold?
My guess? Not very. Not only is Jacksonville on a short week, but for an aggressive unit, they blitz at a below-average rate. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the eighth-best offensive line when it comes to limiting pressure in non-blitz situations.
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Darnold has one rush attempt over the past month and is averaging just 26.8 pass attempts per game. I like him more than the rest of the industry seems to this week, and he’s a potential DFS stack option with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but I can’t swallow the volume limitations in standard league.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
Death, taxes, and this Seattle situation. Zach Charbonnet is going to out-snap Kenneth Walker III and cash in on short carries, regardless of what the ladder shows. They’ve shared a field for three games over the past month, and in those contests, Walker has 42 carries for 272 yards (6.5 yards per carry).
The new version of this offense isn’t capitalizing on the versatility of their most explosive back (who has exactly one reception in four straight games, a stretch that includes the game Charbonnet missed), and that’s a problem.
If we could count on 15-20 carries, I’d be willing to overlook the limitations in the pass game, but we can’t. In a game where the Seahawks scored 35 points, Walker touched the ball 11 times despite running hard.
I have Walker ranked ahead of Charbonnet because that’s how I approach things like this: give me the upside case, even if the touch projection lags slightly behind. He enters Week 6 as my RB22, just ahead of Alvin Kamara, but behind rookies like Cam Akers and Quinshon Judkins, who have their arrow pointing up.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
The three highest snap share games in this backfield all belong to Zach Charbonnet this season (58% in Week 1, 57.4% in Week 5, and 54.7% in Week 2), and he’s found paydirt in three of four contests.
He was fortunate to get into the end zone against the Buccaneers over the weekend, as he cashed in a five-yard carry after Kenneth Walker III ripped off a 31-yard gain to put Seattle on the doorstep.
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We complain weekly about the usage rates of this backfield, but should we? Charbonnet has 9-12 carries in three games this season and… doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 15 yards. Why would we expect this to be anything but a full-blown committee?
Walker has a 20-plus-yard rush in three straight games with Charbonnet by his side, and yet, the Seahawks aren’t comfortable extending him. We’ve got three finishes in the mid-20s at the position from Charbonnet thus far, and that’s where he falls for me this weekend against a Jaguars team on a short work week.
Cooper Kupp, WR
There is a time and a place to use Cooper Kupp. That time and place is when you are grasping at straws and need access to some upside, but with the understanding that a dud is entirely possible.
Kupp has a pair of games with six catches, a general profile that is hard to find on the waiver wire, but he has failed to see six targets in the other three contests, and that’s the rub.
Sam Darnold is playing at a high level under a very simple plan: get Jaxon Smith-Njigba as many looks as possible and take what the defense gives him otherwise.
Some weeks, the defenses will give him Kupp, and that’s where these PPR spike weeks come from, but there are yet to be any pregame signals to help us identify those spots ahead of time.
I’m ranking Kupp as a WR4 until I can crack the code as to when he will be featured. The upside is in volume, but without a 25-yard catch or an end zone target, this is a small-miss player; should he have a nice day on your bench, without the path to finish a week as a top-20 receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had all of our attention last season by posting a 73% catch rate and looking like the future of the position in Seattle. The Seahawks confirmed as much this summer by moving on from Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Sometimes, things go as planned. Sam Darnold is playing at a high level, and we learned last season that when that’s the case, his top option can give us fantasy points by the boatload.
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“JSN” has seen his catch rate spike to 79% over five weeks, which is noteworthy in itself. Toss in the fact that his aDOT is up 39.1%, and the elevated catch rate speaks to an entirely different level of dominance.
His floor this season is 90 yards from scrimmage. His floor. His 1,816-receiving-yard pace doesn’t feel unattainable. Jacksonville enters this game on a short week and struggled to contain bona fide WR1s in September.
Smith-Njigba (my WR3 this week) qualifies as part of that tier and has every chance to be a top 10 PPR receiver moving forward. Seattle lacks clarity just about everywhere else, but you should feel privileged to roster their WR1.
Tory Horton, WR
Tory Horton has caught a touchdown pass in three of four games, but he’s still searching for his first 40-yard game as a pro, and with a 44.1% snap share for the season, you’re really trying to thread a thin needle.
If you’re in the Horton business as a cheap bet against 32-year-old Cooper Kupp lasting in the WR2 role for the entire season, I’m with you. Kupp hasn’t overwhelmed at all, but if Horton were to absorb his role and work into 6-8 targets per game, you’d have my attention.
This is a dice roll that I like in deeper formats. I’m not ranking him as a viable option for Week 6 and don’t plan on it in the short term, but we play to win games in December, and if Sam Darnold continues to play at this level, there’s a chance that Horton will work his way into the flex mix with time.
