To say Bill Belichick’s first season in Chapel Hill has been a rollercoaster would be a massive understatement. Just five games into his college coaching career, the Super Bowl-winning coach’s team has won two games — one against Charlotte and one against FCS squad Richmond.
UNC’s three losses — TCU, UCF, and Clemson — were by an average of 29 points. While this would typically be a rough coaching “debut,” the situation has gotten even more out of control due to the seemingly continuous negative headlines about his girlfriend, 24-year-old ex-pageant girl Jordon Hudson. But just how bad are things in Chapel Hill?
Exclusive PFSN Data Shows North Carolina’s Early-Season Struggles
Even though this week is the Tar Heels’ bye, eye-opening headlines have still managed to come out of North Carolina.
On Monday, reporter Ollio Connolly wrote on X that “Bill Belichick has discussed buyout options with North Carolina’s hierarchy. Belichick has signalled a willingness to trigger his own $1 million buyout if he can find a soft landing with another team or in media.”
In other tweets, he pointed out that members of the coaching staff are already looking for an out and that even Belichick’s communications with the staff have been “distant” and “weird.”
Regardless, the university and the coach put out a joint statement clarifying that both parties are all in. “I’m fully committed to UNC Football and the program we’re building here,” Belichick said. “Coach Belichick has the full support of the Department of Athletics and University,” the school added.
So, on the surface, North Carolina and Belichick appear to be solid. But much like the analogy of a duck seemingly looking calm on the surface while furiously paddling underwater, things might be coming to a head in Chapel Hill.
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According to PFSN’s exclusive data, things might be much worse than anticipated. While Belichick’s current roster relies on transfer players who decided to join the respected coach this past offseason, both the team’s offensive and defensive grades have steadily dropped since the long-time Patriots coach joined the team.
On offense, the unit has steadily deteriorated to a 71.1 (C-) Impact Grade, their worst since the 2019 season.
- 2019: 78.9 (C+) ranked 33rd
- 2020: 82.3 (B-) ranked 19th
- 2021: 80.8 (B-) ranked 22nd
- 2022: 81.9 (B-) ranked 20th
- 2023: 81.4 (B-) ranked 20th
- 2024: 75.1 (C) ranked 72nd
- 2025: 71.1 (C-) ranks 101st
While the offense has shown steady signs of decline, especially since Belichick arrived, having a 101st-ranked unit is no way to make strides towards winning an ACC title. In fact, Carolina’s 71.1 OFFi grade is the fourth-worst among Power Four teams, ahead of only Wake Forest (69.5), Oklahoma State (68.4), and Maryland (67.3).
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As for defense, the dropoff hasn’t been as severe, but it is still present.
- 2019: 77.6 (C+) ranked 47th
- 2020: 73.14 (C) ranked 71st
- 2021: 71.23 (C-) ranked 96th
- 2022: 69.4 (D+) ranked 116th
- 2023: 75.9 (C) ranked 60th
- 2024: 75.9 (C) ranked 60th
- 2025: 74.4 (C) ranks 80th
The Tar Heels’ defensive grades have consistently stayed in the 70s — barring 2022 — but the team continues to rank low compared to other teams.
Now, where has this drop-off occurred? Obviously, North Carolina’s on-field results leave much to be desired, but one of the biggest areas of struggle is at offensive line play. They rank 127th in EPA per dropback with -0.18. One of the biggest reasons for this is that the line can’t pass protect well. They rank 116th in pressure rate allowed (37.3%).
Part of the problem on defense is that the unit hasn’t been able to force opposing offenses into difficult situations, as seen in their 54.2% pass success rate (105th) and 110th ranking in third-down avoidance rate. The defense has also only put up a 3.6% sack rate, which ranks 127th.
Not only that, but the Tar Heels’ defense has committed 11 penalties, which isn’t horrible at 58th, but the flags have been damaging. UNC ranks 118th in defensive penalty EPA with -4.71%.
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While Carolina still has time to turn things around this season — and even potentially make a decent bowl game — news like that on Monday shows that this Tar Heels team is in a dire position.
The school may have thought it was getting a homerun hire out of Belichick, but it seems wiser for the school to part ways, get someone younger in, and fully flesh out a culture and multi-season rebuilding plan for a team that has been inconsistent for the past few years and is in need of a coach willing to commit to starting from the ground up.
