Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 7 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 11 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
After serving a beatdown to Tulsa in Week 6, the Memphis Tigers now have the inside track to the College Football Playoff, with a 20.8% probability according to the PFSN FPM. They have a difficult back stretch of the schedule, but Ryan Silverfield’s team has proven they can mix it with anyone. That said, they’d be a significant underdog (11.9% probability) on the road at Indiana.
The Miami Hurricanes continued their march through the ACC in Week 6, casting aside Florida State in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggested. The Missouri Tigers have enjoyed a similar level of dominance so far, fueled by a top-25 scoring offense and defense. However, they’ve not faced anything as ferocious as the Hurricanes’ defense yet this year.
Put your hands up if you’d pay good money to watch the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs rematch in the postseason. Our college football bowl projections throw together the two SEC outfits in the first round, but who would hold the advantage? Home-field advantage noses the probabilities toward a Bulldogs repeat, with the PFSN FPM giving them a 3.5-point win.
After losing to Florida State to open the season, many fans and analysts had written off the Alabama Crimson Tide for the season. However, they now have a 49.7% chance of reaching the 12-team tournament, where our latest college football bowl projections see them facing the projected Big 12 champion, the Texas State Red Raiders, in what could be the closest first-round game.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 MiamiÂ
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 5 Indiana
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 7Â GeorgiaÂ
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9Â Alabama
As the projected Big Ten champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes take up their residence in the Rose Bowl, welcoming Alabama across the country. With Julian Sayin looking better by the week, Jeremiah Smith hitting form, and a defense that appears to be easily one of the best in the country, it would be a fool who confidently predicts the Crimson Tide competing at all in this one.
The Ole Miss Rebels currently have a 23.1% probability to win the SEC title, according to the PFSN FPM, with our college football bowl projections placing them in the Sugar Bowl for a matchup that doesn’t occur in the regular season. As a quarterback battle, Trinidad Chambliss vs. Gunner Stockton has intrigue, but Georgia likely has a small advantage in this one.
We’re about to witness what Indiana vs. Oregon looks like as an actual Week 7 matchup, but there is a world where the result on Saturday doesn’t deviate either team from their postseason destiny. On a neutral field, the PFSN FPM gives the Ducks a 61.9% win probability with a four-point margin of victory, and that feels like a fair reflection of where both teams are right now.
The quarterfinal stage of our college football bowl projections comes to a conclusion with two teams that might have been considered surprising entrants ahead of the season, but have looked among the best teams in the nation. Strong defenses and exciting offensive weapons should make for an enticing encounter, but the Hurricanes are favored slightly (53.4%).
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 7Â GeorgiaÂ
- Peach Bowl: No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 6 MiamiÂ
At a time when the SEC and Big Ten are threatening to take over the sport, it’s refreshing to see three different conferences represented at the playoff semifinal stage of our college football bowl projections. The potential for Ohio State to travel west to Arizona just to take Georgia away from the Peach Bowl adds another layer of intrigue to two exciting matchups here.
While it’s never wise to rule out Kirby Smart’s team, there aren’t many worlds in which this Ohio State team isn’t better in all phases than the Bulldogs, and the PFSN FPM gives them a 65.1% win probability. The second matchup promises to be closer, with Oregon projected to be a 1.5-point favorite on neutral ground against Miami. The trench battle will be key to success here, with Carson Beck’s difficulties under pressure being a potential factor.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 OregonÂ
This has been a consistent conclusion to our college football bowl predictions since the start of the season, and there is little to suggest that we should deviate from this College Football Playoff National Championship Game premonition just yet. Dante Moore vs. Julian Sayin could be an elite quarterback matchup, and both teams boast top-25 defenses heading into Week 6 of the season.
MORE: Week 6 College Football Players of the Week
But who would win? The Buckeyes have a 61.9% win probability on a neutral field, according to our PFSN CFB FPM, and while this clash would likely be closer than the Rose Bowl beatdown that Oregon suffered in the playoff last year, Ohio State’s better defense and offensive line would likely prove the difference-maker. Can the Buckeyes go back-to-back? You bet they can.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
North Carolina Central vs. Alabama State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
UNLV vs. Arizona
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Cure Bowl
James Madison vs. East Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Ohio vs. Southern Miss
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State vs. Troy
Gasparilla Bowl
South Florida vs. Clemson
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Fresno State vs. Buffalo
Boca Raton Bowl
Miami (OH) vs. Utah State
New Orleans Bowl
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
UConn vs. New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. New Mexico State
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Penn State
Rate Bowl
TCU vs. Maryland
First Responder Bowl
Temple vs. UCF
Military Bowl
Florida State vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl
Louisville vs. Nebraska
Fenway Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Navy
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Boise State vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
San Diego State vs. Texas State
Gator Bowl
Notre Dame vs. LSU
Texas Bowl
Iowa State vs. Texas
Birmingham Bowl
Tulane vs. Auburn
Independence Bowl
Kansas vs. California
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. South Carolina
Alamo Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona State
ReliaQuest Bowl
Michigan vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl
SMU vs. USC
Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Iowa
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Houston
Liberty Bowl
Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Bahamas Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
