The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 4, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
Thursday night’s San Francisco 49ers-Los Angeles Rams matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC West contenders. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 5 performance.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy, QB
I’m no expert, really, at anything, but especially injury analysis, but I thought Brock Purdy looked great physically after a two-game absence (toe).
He was steady in the pocket and, more importantly, seemed to fully trust his teammates. For better or worse, he didn’t hesitate to put his playmakers in a position to make plays. His blind faith in his teammates is encouraging to me on many levels.
First is the obvious. Purdy has some athleticism to his game, but he’s going to have to make his bones as a passer, and the willingness to take shots allows him access to a ceiling.
The less obvious is the long-term outlook. I like Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall as much as anyone, but this group of pass catchers is going to get better as this season progresses. The hope is that George Kittle is back before Halloween, and that alone makes this offense more dangerous. What about Brandon Aiyuk?
What about a late bye (Week 14) that could allow this offense to get healthy and peak at the right time?
- Week 15 vs. Titans
- Week 16 at Colts
- Week 17 vs. Bears
I’m OK if you don’t want to put all of your eggs in the Purdy basket right now, a matchup on short rest against a tough divisional opponent, but readers of this article to be in a position to win their league this winter, and having Purdy rostered could well prove to be a part of that equation.
Further helping his value down the stretch of the season is the fact that some of the game’s finest at the position run into some serious hurdles. Lamar Jackson has to go to Lambeau in Week 17, Josh Allen closes out this fantasy season with games against the Browns and Eagles, and Justin Herbert has to deal with the Chiefs and Texans over the final three weeks
Christian McCaffrey, RB
I had all of my 50/50 (rushing yards/receiving yards) stats researched and ready to go, but then Christian McCaffrey finishes one yard shy of doing it for a fourth-straight game, and it’s now all on the cutting room floor. That’s about the only thing he’s done wrong.
McCaffrey ended September with 100 touches and has a real claim to be the greatest pass-catching back this sport has ever seen (pace: 132 receptions). He’s essentially a low-end WR1 who gets handed the ball 16-19 times a game, a true one-of-one situation.
I’m more confident that the 3.3 yards per carry average improves than I am that his top-five standing in receptions and targets regresses. McCaffrey is a special talent whose only true downside is health, something that literally every running back in this spot deals with.
You got a discount on “CMC” this draft season, and you need to make it count for as long as he is on the field.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR
The 49ers were hoping for a mid-October return for Brandon Aiyuk, a former first-round pick who had ranked 11th in the NFL with 2,357 yards from the start of 2022 to the end of 2023, but that now sounds like a pipe dream with his status being labeled as “not close” in the middle of last week.
By getting some clarity on the health front in the first half of August, we were at least able to enter drafts with some sort of plan. Aiyuk is hanging out on your IR slot for the time being, meaning that he is not costing you a roster spot and thus isn’t taking much win equity off of your plate early on.
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In a perfect world, his injury recovery would have taken us past the San Francisco bye week, but it doesn’t (Week 14 bye). That said, a fully functional Aiyuk coming down the stretch for an offense that needs an alpha WR in a favorable stretch (Titans, Colts, and Bears in Weeks 15-17) could be the piece that swings your fantasy postseason.
This injury was priced into Aiyuk’s cost at your draft, so there’s no point in trying to trade for him now. But what if his manager starts slow? What if panic mode sets in before we have a definitive return date?
I’m mentally noting who has Aiyuk rostered and tracking their status, preparing to pounce should the losses pile up. We are nearing the point in the process where a low-ball offer could be mutually beneficial, so keep your head on a swivel!
Jauan Jennings, WR
If you roster any 49er, “check injury report” probably fits into your bedtime routine somewhere between “brush teeth” and “let the dog out”. That’s going to be the case again this week after Jauan Jennings was sandwiched between defenders on a touchdown last week, a play that hurt to watch for anyone who has ever had a rib injury.
Jennings has just nine catches in his three games this season and has been held under 25 receiving yards in two. Ricky Pearsall certainly seems like the receiver this team is more comfortable with in the splash play department, and that upside (assuming health across the board) is what Pearsall will be my highest-ranked 49er receiver until otherwise noted.
That said, there’s no dismissing the vibes. Jennings grabbed our attention in Week 3 last season, with an 11-175-2 stat line in Los Angeles against these Rams. That sort of upside isn’t available in this spot, but given the surrounding injuries, if Jennings is the top target, he could return WR3 value in what I expect to be a fun game.
Ricky Pearsall, WR
Outside of the elite, there might not be 10 receivers that impress me more on a route-by-route basis than Ricky Pearsall, but he’s been infected with the “San Francisco-itis,” and I’m not sure mankind has the cure.
He’s been banged up seemingly all season, and Brock Purdy’s toe clearly impacted how he stepped into throws in his return to action. A healthy version of this connection could land him in lineups every week — I’m just not sure we’ll see it any time soon.
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Pearsall said he had “a little bit of instability” in his knee after the loss to the Jaguars. I’m not a doctor, but “instability” isn’t exactly a word I love to hear for a big-play maker like this (30-plus yard reception in three of four games with a 15.9-yard aDOT).
There is a whole lot to like here, and I hope we get the full version on display eventually. For right now, however, this situation has more risk than reward, and I’m looking elsewhere to fill my flex.
George Kittle, TE
George Kittle was doing George Kittle things until he decided to do less fun George Kittle things in the Week 1 win over the Seahawks.
Early on, he caught all four of his targets and scored on an extension play to the pylon, where he flexed his athleticism and awareness. When he’s right, he’s as good as it gets at the position. The problem is that we almost always have to navigate injuries, and that is already the case in 2024.
Kittle has played the full slate of games just once in his eight-year career and is now nursing a hamstring injury that landed him on IR ahead of Week 2, ruling him out through this week at the very least.
What causes Kittle to miss time is the same mindset that makes him an elite option when active. I’m banking on him returning to take on the Bucs in Week 6 (for those keeping track at home, this would give him two weeks to work his way into form before National Tight End Day) and offer the type of strong production we’ve come to know and love.
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford, QB
Matthew Stafford piled up the numbers over the weekend against the previously unbeaten Colts (375 pass yards, three touchdowns) on his way to a QB2 finish. That’s great, but I can’t imagine that you’re overreacting to that performance and considering him in single QB leagues.
Despite Puka Nacua being on a historic pace and the honing in on Davante Adams during red zone situations, this was Stafford’s first weekly finish inside the top 15 at the position. He ran hot on Sunday, but in looking at September as a whole, where is Stafford supposed to improve?
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The Rams have failed to clear 23 real-life points in five of six games against the 49ers since 2022 (17.7 PPG), and Stafford hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points against San Francisco since joining Los Angeles (12.4 PPG). Last week was fun, but I’d keep that in the past and not project it to continue.
Kyren Williams, RB
Kyren Williams has killed the 49ers in the past, and it’s easy to fall in love with the metrics from those games. In three career matchups, 24 of Williams’ 77 touches have come in the red zone, netting him five touchdowns.
That includes a TD hat trick in Week 3 last season, but it should be noted that neither Puka Nacua nor Cooper Kupp was active for that contest (Tutu Atwell and Colby Parkinson were the top target earners in that game, hence the heavy Williams usage).
That’s obviously not the case these days with Nacua looking like the best receiver on the planet and Davante Adams aging with grace. I’m intrigued by Blake Corum seeing 20 snaps last week against the previously unbeaten Colts and seeing his touch count increase each week (2-5-8-11) this season.
Corum isn’t going to unseat Williams, but he could subtract from a bottom line that I already thought carried some risk due to the TE equity tied up in the passing game. Williams remains a starter in all formats, but I’m a big game away from moving on (we are 10 months removed from his last 20-yard gain).
Puka Nacua, WR
Evolution is nice, but mankind is unequipped to deal with some things, and that’s just the way it is. We couldn’t stop the avocado toast momentum, and traffic at rush hour remains undefeated. I think I’m ready to add “guarding Puka Nacua” to that list.
We are four weeks into the season, and the Los Angeles star has three games with nine-plus targets and an 85%-plus catch rate. We haven’t seen a receiver go over that number for an entire season since Michael Thomas in 2019 (five), and the NFL has shown no ability to quiet everything he does well.
Chris Olave is the only player in the league with as many targets as Nacua has receptions and given the efficiency of those looks, I’d question the Rams if they didn’t keep peppering him with looks all over the field.
Remember when Nacua initially established himself as a star? He had a big Week 1 to open his career, but it was the second week that showed stability in his work. That was a 15-catch, 20-target performance against the 49ers. I’m not projecting that this week, but would it shock you to see him repeat?
Davante Adams, WR
Puka Nacua might well be the best receiver in the sport — he’s comfortably my WR1 in PPR formats for the next three months at the very least — and even with that asset in hand, the Rams view it as a sound decision to feature Davante Adams in scoring situations. And who am I to disagree?
The 32-year-old has seen nine of his 27 targets over the past three weeks come with his feet in the end zone, and he’s going to need to maintain that usage pattern to return value alongside the unstoppable force that is Los Angeles’ WR1.
Adams cashed in his end zone target for a 10-yard score last weekend against the Colts, giving him his third straight top-24 finish at the position. We can’t bank on elite counting numbers (under five catches and 60 yards in three of four games), but his role inside the 20-yard line is nothing short of elite.
As long as Matthew Stafford is standing upright, Adams will be a top-25 receiver for me in all formats and thus a staple in your starting lineups.
