The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tennessee Titans players heading into their matchup with the Houston Texans to help you craft a winning lineup.
Cam Ward, QB
A pick-six on the third play of the game is certainly an interesting way to start the game.
Cam Ward continues to do the same thing weekly, and I see no reason to anticipate change for much of his first NFL season. Each week, we see flashes of potential and moments of youth. That’s not a rare combination for a 23-year-old. In fact, I’m more encouraged, long-term, about the good than the bad after three games.
The developing connection with rookie receiver Elic Ayomanor is yet another reason to buy stock in Ward in dynasty/keeper formats. Still, for redraft managers, there’s no reason to roster the rookie given the loaded nature of the position.
Tony Pollard, RB
Among the 28 running backs with at least 30 carries this season, Tony Pollard ranks 21st in red zone touches, 22nd in percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards, 24th in percentage of expected points earned, and 25th in our custom Elusive Rating. He’s been as bad as your eyes are telling you.
This game features two of the worst lines in the league, and I don’t suspect the sledding to get any easier against the fourth-best per-carry run defense since the beginning of last season.
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He benefited from a review that put the Titans on the one-inch line last week after a Chimere Dike touchdown was overturned, and I suspect it’ll take a similar level of fortune to make him lineup worthy in Week 4.
In my rankings, I have Quinshon Judkins and Jacory Croskey-Merritt ranked higher.
Tyjae Spears, RB
Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here.
What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Tony Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.
I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on injured reserve with an ankle injury), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.
If you have room on your bench/IR, stashing Spears is the play, understanding that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t be. Tony Pollard is handling a ton of work (38 rushes through two weeks) and not showing much upside (long run: 10 yards).
Spears offers cheap exposure to the “Cam Ward Experience” that you can ditch at a moment’s notice if the roster space becomes more valuable and is used differently.
Calvin Ridley, WR
Young quarterbacks come with growing pains, and it really is that simple. Cam Ward’s two touchdown passes have both gone to Elic Ayomanor, and if Calvin Ridley isn’t going to get the future dangerous looks that this offense offers, he’s on the roster bubble in most leagues.
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I’m still holding, mainly because I think that there’s a world in which Ward develops on the fly and Ridley’s stock increases with time. He does have a 25-yard grab in back-to-back games, so there are at least some breadcrumbs.
As for Week 4, you can’t justify going this direction in any capacity. Ridley doesn’t have a top 50 finish this season, and his current catch rate (38.1%) is lower than the worst free-throw season from Shaquille O’Neal.
Chig Okonkwo, TE
This is the profile I want to look at for a tight end as injuries pile up and bye weeks approach.
Chig Okonkwo’s slot usage is up nearly 50% from a season ago, and while his target rate is in line with 2021, he’s getting the ball in his hands earlier and thus picking up more yardage after the catch this year than last.
In a struggling offense with an inconsistent rookie calling the shots, a big body like this that can do the heavy lifting once fed the ball stands to hold a reasonable weekly floor with some progressive upside as Ward develops.
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By no means am I saying that Okonkwo has to be rostered, but he needs to be on your radar when it comes to streaming the position. The Texans allowed Brenton Strange to lead the Jaguars with 61 receiving yards last weekend, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Okonkwo could build on a solid Week 3.
He’s on the outside looking in this week at my top 12 tight ends, but he’s taken the Uber to the front door and is ready to enter should the position across the league continue to struggle.
