No. 8 Florida State travels to Charlottesville in Week 5 to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. The matchup marks the opening weekend of conference play for both sides, with both offenses coming into it on a hot streak.
Our Florida State-Virginia preview features exclusive PFSN player and team grades, advanced analytical insights, and our data-driven score forecast for Friday’s game.
Florida State vs. Virginia Details
- Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
- Game time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va.
- Predicted weather at kick: 70°, rain, 4 mph winds
- How to watch: ESPN
Florida State vs. Virginia Head-to-Head Record
Florida State has defeated Virginia 14 times in its 18-game history, with the Cavaliers winning just four. While the two teams compete in the same conference, the game hasn’t been played regularly, with the last meeting coming in 2019 when Virginia won 31-24 at home.
The 2019 victory was a dramatic comeback for Virginia, which scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. That triumph also meant Virginia currently holds the Jefferson–Eppes Trophy, awarded to the winner since 1995.
Florida State vs. Virginia Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Florida State (95.97, A)
- Virginia (85.36, B)
PFSN College DEFi
- Florida State (90.3, A-)
- Virginia (81.7, B-)
PFSN College OLi
- Florida State (91.09, A-)
- Virginia (88.5, B+)
PFSN College QBi
- Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (88.7, B+)
- Chandler Morris, Virginia (90.9, A+)
PFSN College RBi
- Florida State (N/A)
- J’Mari Taylor, Virginia (74.21, C)
PFSN College WRi
- Florida State (N/A)
- Trell Harris, Virginia (79.64, C+)
PFSN College TEi
- Markeston Douglas, Florida State (66.71, D)
- Dakota Twitty, Virginia (75.44, C)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Florida State (N/A)
- Daniel Rickert, Virginia (80.17, B-)
PFSN College DTi
- Daniel Lyons, Florida State (75.66, C)
- Virginia (N/A)
PFSN College LBi
- Justin Cryer, Florida State (67.28, D+)
- James Jackson, Virginia (69.2, D+)
PFSN College CBi
- Jerry Wilson, Florida State (81.95, B-)
- Emmanuel Karnley, Virginia (70.62, C-)
PFSN College SAFi
- Ashlynd Barker, Florida State (87.74, B+)
- Christian Charles, Virginia (91.27, A-)
Florida State vs. Virginia Prediction
What a difference a year makes, especially in the transfer portal era. Florida State looks renewed in 2025 and is currently ranked No. 8 in the AP Top 25 poll. The Seminoles are unbeaten to start the season and are favored by seven points on the road in Week 5.
That line isn’t surprising. Florida State has been dynamic on offense under OC Gus Malzahn, as they have dominated the ground game while also showcasing the ability to create explosive plays through the air.
Florida State ranks second in the nation, averaging 363 rushing yards per game, while its 17 rushing touchdowns are the most in the country.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has racked up 139 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground through three games, while explosive playmaker Micahi Danzy leads the team with 173 rushing yards. Gavin Sawchuk and Samuel Singleton Jr. also have multiple rushing touchdowns.
However, the offense’s potency has been enhanced by the ability to involve running backs in the receiving game. Danzy has the second-highest receiving yards on the team (126), while Jaylin Lucas, Ousmane Kromah, and Sawchuk all have over 50 receiving yards.
Castellanos’ impact on the Florida State team can’t be overstated. He holds the seventh-highest PFSN’s College QBi grade so far in 2025 (88.7, B+) and has made explosive plays downfield with wide receiver Duce Robinson, averaging 24.9 yards per reception.
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How Virginia can slow down the offense will be key. The Cavaliers rank 43rd in the nation, allowing 3.3 yards per rush, but their 7.5 yards per passing attempt allowed ranks 92nd in the FBS. This means that the Cavaliers will have to put up points if they are to overcome a top-10 team.
Chandler Morris has been extremely impressive, ranking fourth in PFSN’s College QBi metric (90.9, A-) while receiver Trell Harris has been elusive with 321 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Virginia’s offense ranks 11th in the country, averaging 45.5 points per game, but the Seminoles are even hotter, leading the nation with 58 points per game.
The offenses will get all the attention, but whoever can make plays on defense will come out on top. Florida State is only allowing an average of 10 points per game on defense, giving them the edge.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Virginia 24
