Now that we’re two weeks into the season, we can evaluate what’s real and what isn’t from a fantasy football standpoint. It’ll take some time to sort through anomalies, but the picture should only get clearer from here. But to throw a loop into it all, we’ve seen a crazy rash of injuries pop off already. So, if you’re in a tough spot and need to make a tough choice, hopefully this list will help.
Start ‘Em: Carson Wentz, QB, Minnesota Vikings (vs CIN)
We haven’t seen much from Carson Wentz over the last couple of years. Last a full-time starter back in 2022 for the Washington Commanders, he’s only started a pair of week 18 games since. That leaves us with little to go off, so it’s a true shot in the dark to start Wentz.
He’s been a tad erratic throughout his career, and I wouldn’t expect any different here. What’s changed is that he’s on a loaded team and gets the start against a weak Bengals defense. His gunslinging tendencies, decent mobility, and a stacked supporting cast should be enough to provide fantasy relevance.
But what really excites me here is having Kevin O’Connell lead this offense. Wentz should be more akin to Sam Darnold than J.J. McCarthy. A veteran playmaker who’s had success before but needs layups and schemed reads to offset destructive tendencies? We’ve seen this story before.
We’ll see how fruitful Wentz can be during this stint, but against the Bengals, I’d be more than willing to bet on him for the week.
Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings (vs CIN)
If I’m willing to start Wentz against the Bengals, I’m certainly pumped to start Jordan Mason. This is now the second year in a row that Mason has been put in a position to take over as a true workhorse for his team, and last time it went pretty well.
I’d trust very few offensive minds to get the most out of Mason like Kyle Shanahan, but Kevin O’Connell is one of them. With Aaron Jones going on IR, Zavier Scott is the only remaining RB on the roster. Minnesota called up Cam Akers for depth, but as a free agent in week three, I’d imagine he’s more of an emergency option than an actual competition.
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Last week, the Bengals allowed Quinson Judkins to have 61 carries on 10 attempts in his first NFL action. He was able to succeed despite missing most of the training camp. We’ve seen Mason succeed against better teams, so this should be a slam dunk.
Dylan Sampson, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs GB)
Dylan Sampson has been a pleasant surprise through two weeks as the fellow rookie running back for the Browns. He did lose work to Quinshon Judkins as he joined the lineup, but the Ravens pulled away late, making the game uncompetitive. In a close game against the Bengals in week one, Sampson compiled 20 touches.
While his rushing stats are not impressive, his 11 targets, 11 receptions, and 77 yards are very appealing. His role as a pass catcher should be far more lucrative against a strong defense like Green Bay, which has shut down opposing running backs. If Judkins can’t find room to run, they’ll be forced to turn to Sampson in hopes of creating yardage in space.
The Lions and Commanders only managed to average 2.2 and 2.8 yards per attempt against the Packers, which led to more passes going to their backs instead. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery had 14 targets and 14 receptions, whereas the Commanders’ backs had five targets. However, they lost Ekeler to injury in the fourth quarter.
It’s a risky start. But with plenty of injuries, some of us have hard choices.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs NYJ)
This start was a slam dunk before Emeka Egbuka missed two practices earlier this week. While he was able to put in a limited practice on Friday, he’ll be questionable to play with hip and groin injuries. If he suits up, this is a smash play.
Sauce Gardner is back on his game after a down season. The elite defensive back has been excellent in his first two games, but the defense around him has not. The Bills and Steelers both hung 30 or more on New York, putting the Bucs in a great position to light it up. If Gardner’s primary assignment is Mike Evans, Egbuka has much room to work.
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Egbuka has already had a good start to the year. Three touchdowns in two games are incredible, but the workload could be slightly better. It’s unsurprising to see him struggle against the Texans in a low-scoring game, but seven targets are still promising. If he’s healthy and gets the favorable matchup, he could see double-digit targets for the first time.
It’s hard to imagine a breakout for an exciting rookie with three scores already, but if he gets the looks this week, I think we’re in store for his actual emergence.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears (vs DAL)
I want every bit of this game I can get. Russell Wilson ate against this Cowboys defense last week, which leaves me very bullish on what Caleb Williams may be able to accomplish. After two weeks, it seems that Rome Odunze may be the beneficiary of this new Ben Johnson offense, but I believe DJ Moore may still be recovering from the hospital balls that took him out of the Vikings game.
By all means, I’m also firing Odunze in this matchup. But I think this could be a good spot for Moore to have his first big game, too. With the defense having to consider Odunze now after a strong performance against Detroit, the Dallas defense will be stretched thin trying to cover both without DaRon Bland.
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This team should also be familiar with Matt Eberflus’s defense, though it hasn’t raised a particularly tough challenge for other offenses. It may be time to panic if Moore can’t get it right here with an ideal matchup.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (at CAR)
It’s kinda weird that we’re back in on the whole Kyle Pitts thing, but here we are. Not only that, but I’d love to have him this week with a juicy matchup against the Panthers. Carolina still has a bad defense, making this an excellent spot for Michael Penix Jr. to get right after two challenging games to start the year.
What makes this even better for Pitts is that Drake London, who has also been slow to start, will likely be matched up with Jaycee Horn for most of the game. Horn has been nothing short of excellent while the defense around him has struggled. If London can’t be a featured piece here, it’ll leave plenty of room for the remaining weapons to eat.
That makes this a Darnell Mooney section as well, but Carolina has had more troubles with the TE than anything in the passing game. Trey McBride torched the Panthers with 123 yards on eight receptions. Covering an elite TE isn’t easy, but they also allowed Brenton Strange to go for 59 yards, while Hunter Long caught a touchdown.
It’s lining up beautifully for Pitts. Let’s see if I’m the fool for buying in, or if we finally get the player we’ve been waiting years for.
Sit ‘Em: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (at CLE)
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers have gotten off to a fantastic start to the year, beating two NFC powerhouses by multiple scores. Love has played a steady hand in both games, but hasn’t faced the level of defense he’ll be up against on Sunday in Cleveland.
The Browns will be a fantasy black hole this season unless something drastic happens. Their defense is legit, playing an aggressive brand of football under coordinator Jim Schwartz. This unit, led by Myles Garrett, allows the league’s third-fewest passing yards and the fewest rushing yards. That comes after facing Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson in their first two games.
The Green Bay defense has also been incredible, making this game ugly. It seems unlikely that Joe Flacco and the Browns’ offense will produce much in this game, putting little to no pressure on Love. Now, with Tucker Kraft questionable and Jayden Reed out, the offense may struggle to find consistency.
This is projected to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week. A seven-point lead may feel like a blowout if these two defenses show up, so maybe lean away from it if you can.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (at LAC)
Two games in, and it looks like the Chargers may have heard the disrespect this offseason. Off to an impressive 2-0 start over two divisional rivals, Los Angeles has dominated both opposing quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith. They’ve allowed just one passing touchdown between the two, and coaxed Smith into three interceptions.
Now they’ll face the young Bo Nix. Last season, Nix found reasonable success against the Chargers in their two meetings, combining for 479 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. In the first match, he added 61 rushing yards, which propelled him to QB9 that week, but he didn’t find those same running lanes the second time, resulting in a QB15 finish.
This has the makings of a low-scoring, slow game where both sides are grabbing for what they can get. With three interceptions and a fumble already, Nix hasn’t quite found his groove in his sophomore campaign and has his most challenging task yet.
The Chargers will be without Khalil Mack, but the Broncos have also announced that Evan Engram will miss the game. I’d steer clear of this divisional matchup.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers (at CLE)
Much of the same sentiment about this matchup will be echoed from the Love section. However, this matchup may be even more brutal for Josh Jacobs, particularly against the Cleveland run defense. The Green Bay run game hasn’t exactly popped off yet. Jacobs has been solid, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry with a 47.6% success rate so far.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns have been crushing opposing running backs. In week one, Chase Brown ran for just 43 yards on 21 attempts, which actually looks pretty good compared to the 23 yards on 11 attempts that Derrick Henry managed. Considering Henry destroyed the Bills on the ground the week prior, it was quite a statement from Cleveland to shut him down completely.
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Offensive linemen Zach Tom and Aaron Banks are both questionable heading into this game, so even if they do suit up, they won’t be at full strength. Their absences were clear against Washington, but a positive game script has favored Jacobs in both games. If this game is as low scoring as I expect, they may need to pass the ball more often to put away the Browns.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders (vs LV)
We’ll see if the internet’s preseason hype darling will have his breakout right away, but I’ll wait to see it first. Following the injury to Austin Ekeler last Thursday, Bill Croskey-Merritt has been elevated to starter status. Without Ekeler or Brian Robinson, this is a backfield that JCM could dominate over time.
That said, he may not be set up for immediate success. I can’t explain it, but the Raiders’ run defense has been pretty stout. They’ve already faced a pair of young and exciting RBs in TreVeyon Henderson and Omarion Hampton and held both to minimal production. The bigger issue with those matchups has been lackluster offensive lines, which Washington will likely also have.
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Croskey-Merritt’s receiving profile is also concerning. With just two targets and no catches, you’ll rely exclusively on ground production to get your points from him. Instead, I’d expect Jeremy McNichols to get plenty of work on passing downs. That means we’ll have to wait and see if there are valuable touches on the goal line and in two-minute drills before we can crown Bill.
Furthermore, Jayden Daniels will miss this game, so Marcus Mariota will be set up to start. While Mariota should be an acceptable fill-in, the offense will be far from what it’s capable of with Daniels. So, while Croskey-Merritt is an exciting fantasy prospect, I’m still in wait-and-see mode.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (at CAR)
Quietly, Carolina Panthers CB Jaycee Horn has been nothing short of elite to start the year. Not so quietly, Drake London hasn’t returned the results we’ve been looking for. His 15 targets against Tampa Bay didn’t produce much, then an injury slowed him down against Minnesota.
Atlanta should be able to move the ball easily against a porous Carolina defense, but Jaycee Horn may erase London from the game. My worry isn’t that London alone might not break free from his matchup, but that the Falcons won’t need him to have plenty of success. Neither Brian Thomas Jr. nor Marvin Harrison Jr. was productive against Carolina, but they weren’t required.
London may see a fair share of slot snaps to get going, but with Darnell Mooney back in the lineup, we may see him and Kyle Pitts get the lion’s share of receiving work.
I hate to bet against a player I was so high on throughout the offseason, especially in a seemingly plus matchup. But this could be the perfect storm of things working against him, meaning we may need to wait another week for his breakout.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs HOU)
The Texans’ defense has been excellent this year, and elite CB Derek Stingley Jr. has been a big reason for that. As we all know, Brian Thomas Jr. has struggled to make an impact in Liam Coen’s new offense. The opposing momentum means this probably won’t be the game for Thomas to straighten out his act.
When a highly drafted player starts slow, we tend to stick through it, hoping they finally have the week where the dam bursts. The underlying metrics for Thomas are promising; he’s getting a lot of looks, but not delivering on them. Supposedly, it’s a wrist injury that’s held him back, something many Tyreek Hill managers can vouch for being a bigger issue than it may seem.
After a full practice on Wednesday, Thomas was limited on Thursday. While his game status doesn’t appear to be in question, whether or not he can perform up to his draft stock is. We’ll see if he starts to look more like himself from last year, but I’m avoiding matchups against Stingley if possible.
The team is also trying to get Travis Hunter Jr. involved, so if he continues to see plenty of work from the slot, Thomas won’t be able to hide from Horn.
I’d urge managers to hold onto Thomas for the long haul, but it’s understandable and frustrating to consider benching a high draft pick. I’d ignore the price for now and hope next week brings better results.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (vs DET)
It’s over, I’m afraid. I bought into the offseason hype as well, partially because I historically bought into Andrews in his good years and thought that he could reach those heights again. I should have known better to take his touchdown-heavy stretch late last year as a sign of reemergence, but I had hoped this meant he would again be a massive part of this offense.
I was wrong.
Through two games in which the Ravens have scored a combined 81 points, Andrews has had four targets, two receptions, and seven yards. Last year’s slow start was understandable considering a pre-season car crash, but there’s no excuse for it this year.
This game may feature a return of Isaiah Likely, which could effectively end Andrews’ reign as the team’s top TE. Even if it likely took a few weeks to get back into game shape, what reason is there to believe Andrews will see a higher target share?
Detroit has also been great at suppressing the position on defense. Tucker Kraft was held to just 16 yards against the Lions before breaking out with a massive game the following week against the Commanders. The Bears’ duo saw little action despite an ideal game script, with just three targets, two receptions, and 29 yards. If there’s a game for Andrews to regain his mojo, it’s probably not here.
