The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Buffalo Bills players heading into their matchup with the Miami Dolphins to help you craft a winning lineup.
Josh Allen, QB
If you’ve come to the Josh Allen section of this article, you’re either down bad and looking for a pick-me-up, or you just have a lot of time to kill.
You get access to the most unstoppable quarterback in our game playing a defense that Daniel Jones and Drake Maye have victimized. All signs point to you starting Week 3 with a bang, and few things are better than walking into the office on a Friday after getting 33 points from your QB.
That, of course, is no lock. He didn’t account for a single score last week against the Jets, but he does average 27 fantasy PPG for his career against the Dolphins, reaching that 33-point number on five occasions.
Could Keon Colemon get loose? Does Khalil Shakir rack up the receptions? How Allen gets to an impressive point total is up for debate, but it’s very likely that if you roster the reigning MVP, you’re loving life when your head touches the pillow on Thursday night.
James Cook, RB
James Cook just can’t stop scoring touchdowns these days, and there’s no real reason to think that his RB1-level production falls off a cliff any time soon.
He’s getting the high-leverage touches (of which there are many, thanks to his quarterback’s superpowers), the pass work, and everything in between. Defenses are so terrified of what Allen can do to them that they’d happily give Cook room to run if it means that Allen isn’t carving them up down the field.
Cook owns one of the better floor/ceiling combinations at the position, and I expect to see another top 10 showing at home in this island game.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis more than doubled his snap count in Week 2 (19) from Week 1 (eight), thanks to a wonky game script and a reconstruction of Josh Allen’s face at one point.
With James Cook running hard (5.2 YPC this season, not to mention a 100% catch rate), there just isn’t a reason to give Davis a chance. I think he’s up there in the backup running back power rankings, but his path to standalone value isn’t there as long as Cook is active.
He’s a strategic hold. I always save a spot on my bench for a player who has only contingent value, and if I hit big, I hit big. If not, no real harm. Davis is my most common player in that spot this season, and I’ll continue to hold as long as this Bills offense remains elite.
Joshua Palmer, WR
I feel like this entire division is made up of receivers that you could talk yourself into when forced, but would never look to do it when your roster is reasonably full.
The Bills spent the offseason talking up Joshua Palmer, and he’s delivered a 32-yard catch in both wins this season. He’s an athletic 6’1″ 25-year-old who is attached to Josh Allen: it’s not hard to see some weekly upside.
That said, the target earning is something I have to see from him. He was never really given the chance to do so during his final two seasons with the Chargers, thus making it a skill I’m doubting until proven otherwise.
That part also concerns me. It concerns me that the Chargers, knowing that they were going to embrace a high PROE this season, elected to move on from Palmer. They spent a third-round pick on him in 2021 and know him better than anyone.
They didn’t mind letting him walk, and it’s not as if the Bills have excelled at adding big-time receivers to this Allen-led juggernaut in the past (i.e., Amari Cooper).
I’m skeptical. Roster him if you want a piece of this offense. I can’t blame you there, I’d just do it with measured expectations.
Keon Coleman, WR
I’m not sure we’ve learned a damn thing about Buffalo’s passing game through two weeks.
The season opener was that bonkers game against the Ravens, where they came back from the dead with a Derrick Henry fumble and deflected touchdown passes.
Not sustainable.
Week 2 in New York was a systematic demotion of the Jets that saw Josh Allen get his face bashed in and the Bills run the ball 43 times.
I had Keon Coleman as a preseason sleeper, and I stand by that, but asking for consistent production is probably a bit much. He’s been productive for one quarter this season (22.5 PPR points in the fourth quarter of Week 1), but he really didn’t have many opportunities last week to show us signs of growth.
This is a great matchup, obviously, but it carries the same game script concern that Coleman fell victim to last week. I have both primary Buffalo receivers ranked in the WR30-40 range, a tier where I’m comfortable flexing them if needed, but don’t feel obligated to play them.
Khalil Shakir, WR
In what felt like a good spot against the Jets (Sauce Gardner presumably on Keon Coleman and thus leaving vacated space), Khalil Shakir was held without a catch in the first half last week and finished with just a single reception on two targets.
What gives?
This is an interesting two-game sample. I’m buying into Shakir being the consistent threat he’s proven to be over time, because his slot usage has remained in the same range as it always has.
But …
It’s only an 11-target sample, so do what you will with it, but Shakir’s aDOT is 10.3 yards thus far (2024: 5.6). I don’t think that’s sticky, especially if Coleman takes the step forward that we expect, but it’s at least worth tracking.
I still think Shakir is a rich man’s Wan’Dale Robinson, and I realize how insane that could sound after the Giants’ slot machine broke the Week 2 slate.
If I could acquire Shakir for Robinson today, I’d do it without thinking twice.
This Miami matchup is going to be a get-right for plenty of players this season, and I think there’s a chance we see that come to fruition for Shakir. I have him ranked just ahead of DJ Moore in my WR3 tier for Week 3.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Dalton Kincaid is an involved third-year player on a potent offense that lacks high-end targets to compete with.
On paper, I love it.
In reality, less so.
We’ve cleared 600 days without a 55-yard game from the 2023 first-round pick, and given how effective this team is running the ball inside the 10-yard line, there’s not as much touchdown equity as you’d want to assume, given the raw scoring numbers of this offense.
Against the Jets on Sunday, he led the Bills in targets (six) and catches (four): we got 37 yards from him.
If you’re treating the tight end position like your D/ST and simply playing the matchup game, I could see going this direction on a short week against a porous Dolphins bunch. That’s fine, but attaching yourself to him as anything more than a week-to-week option is something I won’t endorse.
