The fantasy football landscape has dramatically shifted in the 2025 season, with unexpected injuries reshaping rosters and breakout performances creating new stars. Week 3 presents critical lineup decisions as managers navigate quarterback uncertainties and waiver wire opportunities. Competent managers are making strategic moves to capitalize on these early-season developments.
Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN
We saw what was at risk from Aaron Jones Sr. taking almost a 2024 Jaylen Warren role to Jordan Mason’s Najee Harris in Week 2, so given that the former Packer is on injured reserve for at least four weeks, it saved you from yourself.
It’s human nature.
When we spend something meaningful, we take an overly optimistic view of it when asked to evaluate it. Jones cost you a sixth-round pick this summer, so you were naturally more likely to look at his Week 1 usage as optimistic, citing the downfield routes as a path to rare upside.
In theory, those routes offer something that few running backs have access to, but if they aren’t complemented by the stuff that every running back has access to, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.
Jones is a 30-year-old back with north of 1,700 touches on his NFL resume. The truth is that an injury was a real risk, and with a fading role, he may never return to my RB2 range this season.
You’re holding tight, but that’s more because you don’t have a choice. He wasn’t involved much before the injury, and that tanked any trade value he could have had.
Alvin Kamara | NO
The trade window remains open.
Alvin Kamara got there with a touchdown in Week 1 and a 24% reception share in Week 2. He’s been an RB2 both weeks, and that’s fine if you played him, but this Saints offense looks as bad as advertised, and that has me running away from this investment if I can.
We are nearing 1,100 days since Kamara’s last 25-yard carry. If you, like me, believe that scoring opportunities will be sparse at best, you’re putting a lot of faith in this collection of below-average quarterbacks to get him the volume he needs through the air.
I think it’s more likely that Kamara finishes outside of the top 20 at the position than inside the top 10, and I’m guessing that if you sell before this game, you’ll get a pretty solid return for that profile.
Ashton Jeanty | LV
Ashton Jeanty has either run into the MonStars from Space Jam or his teammates are letting him down.
The data says the ladder, but I’m all ears if you have proof of the former and some skill extraction tool.
We saw Jeanty truck a safety on Monday night, but the rookie’s opening career has been difficult, and this bottom-10 offensive line doesnāt offer much hope moving forward.
Highest percentage of rush yards coming after contact, Weeks 1-2
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 104.3%
- Jeanty: 103.7%
- Dylan Sampson: 97.4%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 97.3%
- Zach Charbonnet: 96.6%
He was only on the field for one-third of Vegasā third-down snaps against the Chargers, which shows a lack of understanding of the prospect.
Jeanty was used as an elite player in the pass game in 2023. That wasnāt the case in 2024 because handing him the ball was simply easier. But we need role expansion before we get anything close to a meaningful return on this investment.
Iām playing Jeanty this week, partly because I think thereās a decent chance this game stays close, but I canāt deny that Iām nervous, mainly for everything surrounding Jeanty.
Austin Ekeler | WAS
Austin Ekelerās season ended on Thursday night because of a torn Achilles at Lambeau, a brutal break for a 30-year-old who was once the apple of the eye of fantasy managers.
It goes without saying that you can cut ties; thereās no reason to tie up even an IR slot in redraft leagues, as this injury would require significant missed time for any player, never mind a running back with north of 1,500 career touches on his resume.
Bill Croskey-Merrritt will get every opportunity to thrive in a two-down role. At the same time, Jeremy McNichols figures to get the first crack at an Ekeler role that is much more important to the Commanders than to fantasy managers.
Bhayshul Tuten | JAX
There were whispers this preseason about the readiness of Bhayshul Tuten, and Adam Schefter reported Sunday that his expectation was for the rookie to be given extended run sooner rather than later.
Sure enough, he saw valuable snaps on Sunday and found the end zone on a screen pass. After scoring that touchdown, he and Travis Etienne had split 10 touches. While the starter distanced himself as the game wore on, thereās no denying that Liam Coen is interested in the immediate impact that the fourth-rounder can have.
No, heās not a flex-worthy option right now, but he should be rostered in far more leagues than he is.
Bijan Robinson | ATL
These teams played a crazy game in Week 18 last season. It was after your fantasy season ended, so if you don’t recall, all Bijan Robinson did was rack up 173 yards and two touchdowns in a contest best known for Bryce Young’s heroics.
Robinson is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 4.5 catches per game. I’m not saying that he’s on a Christian McCaffrey-like trajectory this season, but he was my top-ranked overall player entering the year, and I feel even better about it now.
Before the game last week, ESPN ran a Saquon Barkley interview in which he gushed over the cuts that Robinson, and no one else, can make. If you can impress a player coming off a 2,000-yard season, who am I to fight it?
Robinson is well-positioned to win the Offensive Player of the Year award and would be my top overall player if we drafted today for the 2026 season.
Braelon Allen | NYJ
Entering the season, we were worried that the Jets would view Braelon Allen and Breece Hall as two very similar backs, thus leading to a full-blown committee and headaches for all involved.
The good news is that theyāve made it clear, for at least two weeks, that they believe one is superior to the other.
The bad news is that your guy is on the wrong side of things if you’re reading this section.
Allen has just eight touches (all carries) through two weeks, and even with Fieldsā status cloudy, the path to double-digit touches isnāt clear, never mind the run-stuffing ability of this Tampa Bay defense.
Allen is a fine hold at this point because heās an injury away from being awfully interesting, but he will need that injury to matter, something that wasnāt clear entering the season.
Breece Hall | NYJ
Breece Hall came storming out of the gates in Week 1ās loss to the Steelers (145 yards on 21 touches), but running room was a little tough to come by (10 carries for 29 yards against the Bills).
Hallās true value will be somewhere between those two performances, though I do worry that we are looking closer to the latter than the former with New York a seven-point underdog.
The Fields situation looms, and if the dual-threat QB sits as expected, Hall will fall a bit in my rankings. Tyrod Taylor holds a similar skill set to Fields, but the backup is now 36 years of age and wouldnāt open up the same running lanes.
It would appear that the threat of Braelon Allen isnāt something we need to sweat right now, and with this role in hand, Hall wonāt fall outside of my top 20 at the position this week.
Brian Robinson Jr. | SF
Before the trade, the fantasy industry told us what they thought of Brian Robinson Jr. Despite having a clear path to a lead role in a top-10 offense, he was viewed as a middle-round pick with limited upside.
With the 49ers, he’s reinforced as much, turning his 18 opportunities (rushes plus targets) into just 7.6 PPR points.
So why not trade him to the Christian McCaffrey manager and be on your way?
Nobody was excited about him in a lead role when he had it, so where would he rank if CMC were to miss time?
My guess is in the low-end RB2 range, and that’s of limited appeal to me. You know that he holds more value to the team, sweating every McCaffrey touch, so why not try to throw a dart on a Matthew Godon type that could come through on unrealized upside in his situation?
Or, even better, make a move for a buy-low player with Robinson as a tie-breaking piece to convince the CMC manager that he/she is wise enough to be better safe than sorry.
At the end of the day, I don’t think Robinson holds the type of contingent value that McCaffrey handcuffs of years past have.
Bucky Irving | TB
I don’t want to set the bar too high, but when I watch Bucky Irving play, I really do see 90% of Bijan Robinson, and considering that I have the Falcons star as my offensive player of the year bet, that’s saying something.
Irving glides in the open field and always seems to make a two-yard gain four yards. That may sound like peanuts, but add it up 15-20 times a game and/or around the end zone.
Buy low.
Buy low and use this stat to do so (unless they read this article, in which case they are wise to the wool you’re trying to pull over their eyes): through two weeks, 74 players had a carry gaining more than 10 yards, and Irving is not one of them (Mac Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Troy Franklin are, though!).
That’s a fun and quirky stat that is true for now. I don’t think it’ll last beyond this week, so I’d try to make a move quickly. The Jets’ matchup is tough on paper, but I believe that Irving’s abilities can transcend a tough spot.
The Bucs get the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins to end the fantasy season: You won’t care what you paid in Week 3 to get Irving when he’s busy winning you a championship around the holiday season.
Cam Skattebo | NYG
Cam Skattebo plays football like Russell Westbrook plays basketball: one speed at all times. That is hard for defenses to deal with but also hard on the human skeleton over time.
The rookie saw three touches in the first quarter over the weekend and finished the instant classic against the Cowboys with 59 yards from scrimmage and a score. He’s tough as nails, and the Giants trust him, giving us a more “when” not “if” situation for him to assume control of this backfield.
It’s never that easy.
Tyrone Tracy is just 25 years old and cleared 1,100 yards as a rookie. This isn’t a Falcons situation where Atlanta spent huge on Bijan Robinson with the intention of him taking over Tyler Allgeier’s bellcow role. It feels more like a “we are building a committee to grow alongside our franchise QB” sort of situation.
Not ideal for fantasy managers.
Both are fluid pass catchers, and I think the “right” answer as to which one is most valuable down the stretch this season will largely depend on who the quarterback is.
Assuming neither outperforms the other by a wide margin, I suspect New York will opt for the RB with a little more NFL seasoning in Tracy when they make the inevitable shift to Jaxson Dart.
That could change in short order, but that would be my guess, and that’s why I still give Tracy the slightest of edges moving forward. This, however, is not the type of backfield that can sustain multiple RBs, so in the short term, I have no intention of playing either in a redraft setting.
Chase Brown | CIN
Projecting the Cincinnati offense in a post-Joe Burrow world isn’t an exact science, but there are some things we feel good about.
The pass rate over expectation is likely to dip, and the time from snap to pass is likely to decline by 10-15%.
Sign me up!
Chase Brown has the backfield all to himself, and while the implied point totals will be lower with Jake Browning under center, I expect their RB1 to be plenty busy.
Over his past 10 games, Brown has touched the ball 23 times per contest (4.2 receptions), an elite figure by any measure. No Burrow could mean fewer overall plays, but even if you’re (in my opinion) overly aggressive in your reduction and lop off 25% of Brown’s touches, we are still looking at 17-18 opportunities, and that’s plenty to be considered as a fine RB2 in all formats.
Add that Minnesota has been the most blitz-heavy defense since the beginning of 2022 and could be looking to jump-start their new look offense with even more aggression. It could be a high catch total for Brown that translates nicely into DFS tournaments.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was a healthy scratch last week in Lambeau, and while I don’t expect that to be the case as the season wears on, it speaks to how the team views him.
Following the Brian Robinson trade, there was speculation that Rodriguez, a 25-year-old who has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on his 86 attempts as a pro, could work his way into a competition with Bill Corsky-Merritt for the two-down role.
That’s something we don’t have to sweat right now, which means C-Rod doesn’t need to be rostered in any format.
Christian McCaffrey | SF
What’s understood doesn’t need to be explained.
Christian McCaffrey is on pace for 425 touches this season, and no one thinks twice about it. He’s cleared 50 rushing and receiving yards in both contests despite not having a touch pick up more than 25 yards.
Despite all the injuries, the 49ers are 2-0, and CMC is their cheat code. He’s got the highest fantasy floor when healthy of any player in professional sports, and I’m not even sure who else you’d put on that tier.
The Cardinals’ defensive metrics have been good up to this point, but I’m sorry if I need to see more than impressive showings against the Saints and Panthers to sell me on a turnaround.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR
Chuba Hubbard entered this season with two touchdown receptions on his professional resume, which he has doubled in just two weeks.
Hubbard caught 43 passes in 15 games last season, a sign of skill development from the previous year (39 in 17 games) and a promising indicator, given the Panthers’ low win projection for 2022.
With 34 touches and three gains of at least 14 yards through two weeks, Hubbard has a pretty ironclad case regarding his weekly status. The offensive environment will come with limitations, but with an elevated floor like this, Hubbard can be a valuable weekly asset on a successful fantasy team.
The Panthers and Falcons played a crazy game to conclude last season, and with the increased versatility shown by Hubbard over the years (five or more targets in both games this season), there’s not a game type that would scare me.
D’Andre Swift | CHI
Without a bail-out three-yard score in the fourth quarter to cut Detroit’s lead to 24, D’Andre Swift managers would be complaining about consecutive finishes outside of the top 30 at the position.
To be honest, I’m not too worried about the value of Chicago’s lead back. He’s got a firm hold of this backfield, and he’s caught three passes in both losses: regardless of what you think of Swift’s talent, 15 carries and 3-5 targets is enough to land you in the flex conversation at the very least.
The Cowboys’ defense was vulnerable deep downfield last week against the Giants, and if they overcorrect in that regard, I think Swift is a solid bet for his standard work. Thus, a top 25 finish at the position with some upside should this offense bounce back after a rough Week 2 and keep this game tight.
David Montgomery | DET
David Montgomery cashed in a dive in the blowout win over the Bears, and his 11 carries picked up 57 yards, a much more satisfactory result than the 25 yards his 11 totes gained in Week 1 against the Packers.
His role in the pass game may depend on the script (four targets in the loss to open the season, but only one on Sunday), but he still appears to carry enough scoring equity to carry weekly RB2 status in most matchups.
In this one, however, he falls a tick below that and is more of a flex option for me. Since the beginning of last season, the Ravens have been the best post-contact rush defense in the league, and with their ball-control style of offense, the floor for Montgomery in this spot, if he’s held out of the end zone, is troubling.
I’m not looking to bench Detroit’s RB2 for a flier receiver, but if you feel good about 6-8 targets or 15+ touches from a similarly ranked option on your bench, I’d lean that option for this week.
De’Von Achane | MIA
The Dolphins went three-and-out to open up Week 2, and their playcalling was ultra creative: two De’Von Achane carries and one target.
His role is as favorable as any back in the league this side of Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor. While I trust his raw talent to pay off more often than not, you at least have to weigh the potential for a Miami implosion in the long term.
I don’t like this matchup, but Achane is matchup-proof, so there’s no analysis needed on that front. By no means do you have to sell, but with him finding the end zone in each of the first two weeks, could you move off of him for Bucky Irving?
I would in a heartbeat.
What about a slightly lower running back and George Pickens or something along those lines?
Again, it’s not a must-do, but it’s worth considering.
Derrick Henry | BAL
For me to say that the league has found a blueprint, a team would have to slow down the Ravens as a whole.
It’s odd that Derrick Henry carried the ball 11 times for 23 yards against the Browns last week (27 of those 23 yards came after contact), but it’s not as if Cleveland solved this Todd Monken system; they gave up 41 points!
Henry differs from the Tier 1 backs in that he will likely have games like this. It happens every year.
Know why, if you weren’t a Henry manager, you are blind to these occurrences?
Because he erases all memory of them with a historic game sooner or later, Baltimore relies on Henry, and no one knows how to slow this offense.
My math degree tells me that, by the transitive property, no one knows how to stop Henry.
He’s my RB3 this week.
Dylan Sampson | CLE
The eight-catch performance from Week 1 feels like a long time ago after Quinshon Judkins debuted on Sunday in Baltimore and played the lead role in this backfield.
Sampson still got some work on the first drive, so he’s not being completely scripted out by the Browns, nor do I expect him to be, but this situation is trending away from him, and that means you can’t possibly consider starting him in what might be the toughest matchup in football.
I’d keep Sampson on my roster as a way to have a cheap investment in what has been the most pass-heavy offense in the league through two weeks, but if you told me that you had to move on from Sampson in two weeks when byes start to become an issue, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.
Isaac Guerendo | SF
Isaac Guerendo missed time in August with a shoulder injury, but he returned to practice in the middle of the month, shortly before the team traded for Brian Robinson Jr.
Guerendo didn’t see the field for a single snap in Week 1 despite the pregame concerns surrounding Christian McCaffrey, a clear indicator that he’s more of a Robinson handcuff than a McCaffrey handcuff. In fact, heās yet to get on the field for a single offensive snap in 2025.
There are too many options with single-play upside on most waiver wires to waste an active roster spot on Guerendo right now. If McCaffrey were to go down, he’d be worthy of an add, but you don’t need to get ahead of a particular situation.
Isiah Pacheco | KC
I guess we can look at the glass 59.6% full in the case of Isiah Pacheco. That was his snap share last week, up from 48.3% in the season opener, a step in the right direction, but still a long way away from what it’ll take to get him back into fantasy lineups.
Andy Reid always runs a high pass rate over expectation offense, and I would, too, if I had Patrick Mahomes. What I didn’t see coming was the willingness to have Mahomes move the chains himself.
We usually see #15 peak in an athletic sense when the games mean more in the winter, but as the Chiefs search for answers, he’s going that route regularly, leaving the running backs without much work.
Pacheco has yet to gain more than 10 yards this season and has had only 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) through two weeks.
I still think this offense functions better with Pacheco’s profile than it does with Kareem Hunt’s. Still, neither deserves to be anywhere near your lineup until Kansas City stabilizes its usage patterns.
J.K. Dobbins | DEN
There’s nothing you can do besides play out the string.
J.K. Dobbins is the 14th highest scoring RB through two weeks despite a 49.6% snap share, and there’s nothing you can realistically do about it.
Does it feel sustainable?
Only if you overlook the health track record, and that he’s in the 10th percentile when it comes to the percentage of carries that are above average in terms of yards after contact. He’s been held to single-digit receiving yards in both games, and he’s averaging under 3.5 yards per carry without two chunk runs.
Can you trade him?
I doubt it. Most are aware that Bo Nix is the type of athlete who can take opportunities away from his back and that Sean Payton invested in a running back during the draft.
There is no real expectation that Dobbins is a locked-in RB2 moving forward, so you just have to ride this out for as long as possible.
I don’t love this matchup, but at least the Chargers are on a short week. Dobbins is my RB25 for Week 3 and outside of my top 30 at the position for the rest of the season.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS
We might get to the point where you just throw out any data against the Packers.
Bill Croskey-Merritt got his hands on the ball just four times in a game where the Commanders were behind for most of their offensive snaps and forced to throw 3.5 passes for every running back handoff.
On the bright side, Croskey-Merritt has gained yardage on 13-of-14 carries during his rookie season. That’s nice to see and is something he needs to sustain if he wants to remain a viable fantasy starter.
Through two games, he has one splash carry and zero catches. A two-down role with a mobile quarterback comes with a thin production line if your name isn’t Derrick Henry, and that’s what we are looking at here.
Austin Ekeler (Achilles) is done for the season, but I don’t think his usage will simply be transferred to Croskey-Merritt. We didn’t see him featured in a meaningful way in the pass game in any of his college stops, so while the injury raises his floor, I’m not sure the per-touch ceiling moves significantly.
If I have access to a player with more upside, I will likely lean that way. That said, the elevated floor for a featured back on a talented offense with an extended prep week who is favored isn’t a tough sell.
Croskey-Merritt is my RB23 for Week 3.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
I’m still hammering out the open space rankings, but I know Jahmyr Gibbs gliding and reckless Baker Mayfield are two of my five favorite viewing experiences when they have green grass in front of them.
We saw that on Sunday from Gibbs with a 42-yard run, a boost of confidence after he totaled just 50 yards in the Week 1 loss at Lambeau. We are looking at one of the premier dual threats in the sport, and while this offense looks a bit different sans Ben Johnson, maximizing Gibbs is pretty clearly high up on the to-do list.
Jahmyr Gibbs is easily the best RB in the league pic.twitter.com/7alMlBvMLG
ā ŁŁŁ (@GibbsWrld) September 14, 2025
I expect a conservative Lions game plan in this spot, and that’s more of a boost for David Montgomery than Gibbs, but that’s only a concern if you’re playing DFS Showdown.
In redraft, you feel privileged to be honored to start #0.
James Conner | ARI
I’m not so worried about Trey Benson taking work away from James Conner as I am about the Cardinals refusing to run the ball traditionally.
Despite a 2-0 record and two very favorable matchups, Arizona ranks 26th in running back rush attempts with 34. I’m comfortable in Conner’s role, but if the carry count for the backfield will underwhelm, there’s not much room for error.
Conner has scored in both weeks (a catch in Week 1 and a plunge in Week 2), and that’s good to see. I don’t doubt that he flirts with double-digit TDs this season if he can stay on the field, but if we look at under 15 carries per game, the weekly floor is concerning at best and potentially alarming.
I’m not acting on these concerns just yet, as I have Conner ranked as a top-15 RB this week, but I do think he deserves to be watched closely. His health history is iffy (he has never played a full NFL season), and if the volume is as well, there’s more risk than reward in continuing to bank on the 30-year-old.
James Cook | BUF
James Cook just can’t stop scoring touchdowns these days, and there’s no real reason to think that his RB1-level production falls off a cliff any time soon.
He’s getting the high-leverage touches (of which there are many, thanks to his quarterback’s superpowers), the pass work, and everything in between. Defenses are so terrified of what Allen can do to them that they’d happily give Cook room to run if it means that Allen isn’t carving them up down the field.
Cook has one of the better floor/ceiling combinations at the position, and I expect to see another top-10 showing at home in this island game.
Javonte Williams | DAL
A certain level of running needs to be mentioned for a player like Javonte Williams, who has produced top-5 numbers at the position in consecutive weeks.
The season opener was against an Eagles team that lost Jalen Carter before a single snap, and last week’s game was the funkiest game of the year. I’m not writing them off, but I’m saying let’s maybe take a step back and not crown Williams just yet.
His 87.9% gain rate is a nice foundational piece to the puzzle, but even with things working out in his favor, he ranks in the 25th percentile in percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards.
I remain steadfast in my belief that the Dallas offense is more likely to win through the air than on the ground. Thus, I think we are awfully close to peak value for Williams. In theory, that means trading him, but your league mates will be wise to your plan, which complicates matters a bit.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 3 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
What if you pulled the old carnival trick?
You know, distract your trade partner with a shiny name (maybe a Tyreek Hill or Alvin Kamara) while you price gouge them on Williams.
I’m thinking a two-for-two deal where you include a veteran with name recognition that you’re not enamored with (the two names mentioned above fit that bill for me) with Williams for a rookie who has yet to do it (TreVeyon Henderson), and some help filling your flex in an upgraded way over the veteran.
I like Henderson over Williams for the second half of this season outright, but that’s not going to be reflected in a deal like this, and then you get to upgrade a boring veteran for an upgrade.
It’s worth a shot.
Jaydon Blue | DAL
Jaydon Blue has been a healthy scratch for both games this year, but it realistically shouldn’t change anything. You were playing the long game when you drafted him, and there was no real world in which you would consider playing him during this first month with all 32 teams in play.
Lines were instantly drawn to Achane being a healthy scratch 24 months ago and owning elite upside by… well, Week 3 (233 yards and four scores against the Broncos). It’s probably a touch optimistic to think we will get that, but the larger point remains ā you’re not wrong for drafting Blue.
At least not yet. You might be. But isn’t that what your bench is for? The idea of stashing Blue is just as strategically sound today as seven or 14 days ago.
If you have the roster flexibility, stay the course and see where this ride goes. If injuries are already eating away at your options, you can move on: Blue’s theoretical upside this winter won’t mean much if your team is eliminated from contention.
Jaylen Warren | PIT
How many players do you think have a 10+ yard run in an NFL game that counted (I’m not going to hold the preseason against him) since the last time Jaylen Warren did?
As a reminder, there are 32 teams in the NFL.
You’d be in the right range if you doubled the career number of Kevin Hart movie credits.
The number is 114 and includes names like Dane Belton, Steven Sims, and D’Ernest Johnson.
In theory, Warren is the only running back we care about in Pittsburgh, but should we? This is maybe the most conservative offense in the league, and I’m not at all confident that things open up, given the people involved in the decision-making.
I’m being too hard on Warren. He’s paid off both weeks with 10+ PPR points in the pass game, and maybe that sticks in this Aaron Rodgers system. That said, if you had told me that Kaleb Johnson wouldn’t be a factor in the slightest, I would have had far more shares of Warren.
Right now, I’m glad I don’t.
Jeremy McNichols | WAS
There’s no denying that Jeremy McNichols’ role increased with Austin Ekeler’s injury. He was the only running back to play in the fourth quarter on Thursday night, as the Commanders were playing catch-up against the Packers.
But how much upside is there realistically to chase?
I don’t want to speak for you, but last week didn’t color my opinion of Washington: I still think this is a solid team. Double-digit touches will likely be an uphill battle if that assumption is correct.
The 29-year-old has played for six teams during his NFL career and has never reached 70 touches in a season. There will be a week or two this season when the game script works in his favor, and maybe he delivers a seven-catch effort that returns PPR value, but I’m not sold we’ll see it coming.
With this spread flirting with a full touchdown, this profiles as a Bill Croskey-Merritt game, and if that happens, McNichols is unlikely to finish inside the top 40 at the position.
Joe Mixon | HOU
Joe Mixon battled an ankle injury throughout the summer, and considering he has missed three games in two of the past three seasons, not to mention that he has north of 2,100 NFL touches, he will be tough to trust in any capacity in the short term. The team announced on Aug. 25 that their starting back had been transferred to the reserve/non-football injury list, which rules him out for at least the first four games of this season.
The 29-year-old has averaged more than 4.1 yards per catch just once in his career, making him more of a volume-based fantasy asset than one that can hit your lineup with limited work. With over 1,200 scrimmage yards in four straight seasons, Mixon stands to be a weekly option, but you’re playing the long game.
Houston goes on bye in Week 6 and has some difficult matchups sprinkled in their schedule over the first two months. But if we get a bellcow version of Mixon as winter nears, he could be a popular name on rosters playing for fantasy glory (Week 15-16, home games against the Cardinals and Raiders).
Jonathan Taylor | IND
Jonathan Taylor has the most locked-in role in fantasy right now (100% snap share in the first half of Week 1 before that game got out of hand and 93.9% in Week 2), and that has him riding higher with the Colts being the surprise offense of the first two weeks.
This Indianapolis house of cards could come crumbling down with some regression from Daniel Jones, but I think JT is regression-proof in that regard. He’s picking up 5.5 yards per carry, has caught multiple passes in both games, and is at the peak of his powers in terms of the age curve.
Nothing to worry about here, regardless of what you think the future holds for this offense. Taylor has put his name on the list of RBs that can lead the position in scoring this season, an outcome I didn’t once consider during the summer.
Jordan Mason | MIN
The door opens to a role that may have already been Jordan Mason’s. Aaron Jones is likely out for at least the next month with a bulky hamstring, and it comes at the perfect time for Mason truthers:
“vs Bengals”.
Since the beginning of last season, 72.8% of RB rush yards against Cincinnati have come after first contact (league average: 69.2%).
That may seem like a slight edge, but given how Mason runs, that sort of flaw could undo a defense that struggles to tackle, and that’s especially true if you think the Jake Browning version of that offense isn’t going to put the pressure on Minnesota’s offense to abandon the run.
Mason may not be the most versatile option, and that’s going to cap his ceiling, but he has a great chance to finish top 10 for the week in total carries, and that has him firmly in the middle of my RB2 tier, even in PPR formats.
Josh Jacobs | GB
From elusive rating to versatility, Josh Jacobs’ profile through two weeks doesn’t look as impressive as it did a year ago, but the raw volume (42 carries) is pretty hard to ignore, and the 10-game scoring streak isn’t an accident.
As long as you think Green Bay is as good as they’ve looked through two weeks, Jacobs is a high-floor RB1. He ran for 15 touchdowns a season ago, and if Jordan Love is going to continue threatening defenses down the field (aDOT up 42% from 2024), that might be on the low end of expectations.
Could the Jayden Reed (collarbone) injury open up two to three targets for Jacobs per game over the next two months? He doesn’t need it to return value on your investment, but it gives him a path to top-5 production.
Kaleb Johnson | PIT
It’s been a fun ride.
That’s a lie. This Johnson evaluation process hasn’t been brutal. Initially, we assumed he’d be Najee Harris 2.0 and were excited. We assumed that Warren would be Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, the old couch in the corner of the offense that you can count on, but doesn’t really impact your aesthetic.
Everything was clean until adverse reports about the rookie surfaced in early August.
And mid-August.
By late August, we had come full circle: as an industry, we went from expecting big things to wondering if he’d be used.
It was a ride, and while I’m often patient with rookies, last week’s butchered kickoff removes any hope of a role expansion.
You can move on. He might well have a moment this season. I hope he does. This has to be worse for him than for us. But the number of hurdles he has to overcome to get a chance is too many for us to ignore.
This is Warren’s backfield, and I’m not even sure he’ll be a weekly lock.
Kareem Hunt | KC
Pacheco’s value seems to bounce all over the place, but Hunt is what he is.
- Week 1: 39.7% snap share, seven touches
- Week 2: 38.6% snap share, nine touches
That’s not enough to be of value to us in the best circumstances, let alone for a team that has scored just 38 points through two weeks.
Pacheco isn’t running well right now, but as long as he’s active, Hunt is entirely off the flex/DFS radar. He’s a middle-of-the-road handcuff option, holding value because of his prowess in the passing game and the play-calling tendencies during the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA
You’ll want to venture over to the Zach Chabonnet portion of the program for the full-blown analogy, but this committee situation will mean wild swings like what we’ve seen through two weeks for Kenneth Walker III.
In Week 1 against the 49ers, half of his carries failed to gain yardage, the worst mark among qualifiers (for reference, the average RB that week posted a 23.3% failure rate).
In Week 2, he got into space, posted the highest chunk play rate of his career, and finished with more carries than Charbonnet had rushing yards.
Week 1 snaps
- Charbonnet: 29 (10 routes, zero targets)
- Walker: 20 (9 routes, three targets)
Week 2 snaps
- Charbonnet: 35 (12 routes, zero targets)
- Walker: 23 (6 routes, one target)
His role is clear, and the skill set is something we’ve known him to have. In the past, however, he’s been allowed to work through his consistency issues with volume.
That’s not lining up to be the case in 2022, which puts us in a position to make bold claims about him every week. With him running well last week, I think he gets the first chance to exploit this Saints defense. The first chance to do damage when favored is all we can ask for, and that’s why I have him ranked as the top back in Seattle as my RB18 for Week 3.
Kyren Williams | LAR
I’m sorry, but given his cost, you won’t be able to sell me on Kyren Williams as a profitable pick this season.
Blake Corum scored on a late drive last week with the game in hand, but that’s not why I’ve soured on Williams.
Williams is the reason I’ve soured on Williams.
Week 12 was the last time he had a 20-yard carry, and with just 13 targets earned over his past nine games, there aren’t many paths to fantasy glory.
Last week, the Rams loaded up Davante Adams with a career-high five end-zone targets, and that was always the concern: He’s one of this generation’s best at converting short passes into scores, the exact area where Williams has to excel to live up to expectations.
The Rams opened with a sub-21 implied point total, and if scores are going to be hard to come by, another 8-12 PPR point game seems likely.
It’ll be tough to sell after a down week, but Williams has built up enough equity to recoup some value with one strong performance. When that happens, I’ll move him to the highest bidder and cut my losses.
Miles Sanders | DAL
Miles Sanders has multiple red zone touches and has been on the field for over 77% of Dallas’s offensive snaps in both games this season.
He looked good on the big run in Week 1 but fumbled later on that drive. He cashed in the short carry against the Giants on Sunday, but his seven touches netted just 19 yards.
That’s the yin-and-yang that takes place with Sanders. One step forward, one step back.
If he were getting bellcow-level work, he could get away with that at some level, but he’s not. Javonte Williams has done nothing to cede touches, but Jaydon Blue has yet to be on a gameday roster.
The Cowboys seem to want to function with a lead back, and that’s actually good news for those holding Sanders. He’s never going to project for enough work with a healthy Williams to tempt you, but should he move to the top of this depth chart, we are looking at a low-end RB2.
He’s not exciting, but he is a good piece to hold for depth purposes.
Najee Harris | LAC
Najee Harris put a real dent into Omarion Hampton’s role on Monday night, almost as if he was recovering from a serious injury when the season kicked off, and is now trending towards full health.
Imagine that.
Harris isn’t fun, but he’s capable, and if this offense is going to transition to an aerial-oriented one truly, maybe that’s all they need.
Los Angeles ranking 30th in running back yards gained before contact is a real flaw, and if that doesn’t get ironed out, our debates about who should be RB1 in this offense won’t matter.
Harris cleared 1,000 rushing yards during all four seasons in Pittsburgh, not because he was some Bijan Robinson-level talent, but because he did what was asked, and that kept him on the field.
He’ll continue to do that, which means he’ll have a role unless Hampton’s raw abilities flash and demand more usage.
Nick Chubb | HOU
The final stat line for Nick Chubb looks good because of the late 25-yard touchdown, but it was a slog mostly (11 carries for 18 yards before the score).
Christian Kirk is expected to return this weekend, which may help the passing game get going a bit. However, until that happens, I’m unsure how you can start Chubb with confidence.
Through two weeks, he’s the second-worst post-contact back in the league, and when you’re playing behind a bottom-10 offensive line, that seems like an issue.
Woody Marks looked spry on his four touches, and while I don’t think he’s a real threat to make this a committee situation, any change in touch distribution layers is more risk to a Chubb profile that I’d already rather avoid.
I see Chubb in a similar way to Pacheco right now: Both are lead backs for their respective teams, and I’d much prefer to fade them than roll the dice on them.
Ollie Gordon II | MIA
Miami was much more competitive on Sunday than they were in the opener against the Colts, and thus, they relied on De’Von Achane even more. Ollie Gordon II received plenty of hype late in the draft process this summer, with the thought being that Achane wasn’t physically built for a Christian McCaffrey-esque role, but that seems to have been misguided intel.
Seriously misguided.
Achane’s usage is as impressive through two weeks as anyone in the league, and Gordon’s snap share cratered to 11.5% as a result in Week 2.
I don’t have a problem with rostering the bulldozing rookie, but you’re looking at contingent value (ala Ray Davis behind James Cook or Brian Robinson behind McCaffrey) and nothing else.
Omarion Hampton | LAC
Through two weeks, Hampton is RB45 and has accumulated just 51.1% of his expected points. The Chargers rank third in dropback rate this season when the game is within one score, a drastic change from their 15th ranking a season ago and a potential cap on how much ground work their star rookie RB has access to.
We thought Hampton would be the lead dog in a run-centric offense, but instead, Najee Harris is taking food off his plate, which is now a wide-open offense.
My short-term optimism was fading a bit, and then the rookie put the ball on the ground in the fourth quarter on Monday night with the Bolts trying to run out the clock.
It meant nothing in terms of the game, but for an old-school coach like Jim Harbaugh, I can’t help but think that the memory lasts.
This is a tough matchup, and there is role risk to consider. I still have Hampton ranked as the lead back in Los Angeles, but he’s more of a fantasy flex than anything else this week, a pretty significant fall from where his stock stood a month ago.
Quinshon Judkins | CLE
Last week, Jerome Ford essentially doubled Quinshon Judkins’ snaps and tripled his routes, but those numbers became out of line given the game state, with the Ravens dominating for much of the afternoon.
The Browns opened up with a pair of pass plays before their first handoff, but that first designed run was Judkins’, and I expect him to be the lead in this low-volume backfield moving forward.
Not only did he get the first shot at ground production, he got six of the first nine in his NFL debut. I was surprised at just how heavily they leaned on him, and while it didn’t matter massively (the 31-yard run was nice), it was encouraging for his stock moving forward.
Judkins is the only back in Cleveland I’m rostering these days. He shouldn’t be trusted in any format against a Packers defense that is on a mission and rested. Still, I expect him to be a viable flex option on multiple occasions before Cleveland goes on bye in Week 9.
Rachaad White | TB
I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but have we ever seen Rachaad White run as hard as he did on Monday night in Houston?
He carried 10 times for 65 yards, and every inch was hard-fought. The knock on White up to this point in his career has been his willingness to do the dirty work, and while he’s no real threat to usurp Bucky Irving, this performance forced me to raise him in the handcuff running back rankings.
I don’t see this offense consistently sustaining two viable running backs, so I’d caution against reacting too much to this impressive showing. White is a nice piece to have rostered as cheap exposure to an explosive offense, with the thought that should an injury occur, you’ll have yourself a top-20 player at the position.
The Bucs have as favorable a schedule during the fantasy playoffs as anyone, and that fact alone makes White roster depth worth acquiring in future weeks (keep an eye on the roster with him and pounce should they get in a desperate spot, health/record-wise).
Ray Davis | BUF
Ray Davis more than doubled his snap count in Week 2 (19) from Week 1 (eight), thanks to a wonky game script and a reconstruction of Josh Allen’s face at one point.
With James Cook running hard (5.2 YPC this season, not to mention a 100% catch rate), there just isn’t a reason to give Davis a chance. I think he’s up there in the backup running back power rankings, but his path to standalone value isn’t there as long as Cook is active.
He’s a strategic hold. I always save a spot on my bench for a player with only contingent value, and if I hit big, I hit big. If not, no real harm. Davis is my most common player in that spot this season, and I’ll continue to hold as long as this Bills offense remains elite.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
Before Sunday, that was the last time Rhamondre Stevenson had a 20-20 game, a contest with a 20-yard run and a 20-yard reception.
The 27-year-old is running like he has a high-pedigree prospect chasing him and looks good.
Thus far.
TreVeyon Henderson has shown glimpses of his upside, and I expect the Patriots to seize that hope in time, but not until Stevenson gives them a reason to. The veteran has averaged under four yards per carry over the past two-plus seasons, and while he is checking the right boxes now, I’m not giving him much of a chance to hold off Henderson for another three and a half months.
If I could move Stevenson for a Croskey-Merritt middling RB with safe volume, I think I would make that deal.
RJ Harvey | DEN
We saw J.K. Dobbins light the world on fire last September before wearing down to some degree, and I still believe that’s the most likely outcome in Denver this season.
The exact “when” is impossible to predict, but I don’t think you’re playing the game right if you’re fretting over limited usage (13 touches) at this point in the season. Harvey was brought in to be Mr. Right, not Mr. Right now, and I think that plan remains in place.
The Broncos’ offense hasn’t exactly been clicking thus far, and a shift in backfield responsibilities could help jump-start them. They had a good first half in Indy last week, but they’ve largely underperformed for 75% of the two weeks.
Harvey was out-snapped 25-17 by Dobbins on Sunday (Week 1: 37-22) and has edged out the oft-injured veteran in carries in both games. This should still be his show when you need it most, and the weather begins to turn.
Saquon Barkley | PHI
Saquon Barkley doesn’t yet have a touchdown, but gaining more than 16 yards is a surprise; with a rush TD in both games and 46 touches, there’s nothing to worry about here.
The Eagles’ offense runs through their All-Pro RB, and funneling seven targets to him through two weeks is a step in the right direction (2.7 targets per game last season).
Eagles vs Chiefs: CHIEFS KINGDOM SUPER BOWL REVENGE GAME EDITION as heard on Chiefs radio
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1. SAQUON BARKLEY TOUCHDOWN! pic.twitter.com/7T5wrUJDsZ
ā Nick Piccone (@_piccone) September 15, 2025
We know the big runs will come. I’m happy he’s been a top-12 RB in both weeks without the spike plays, solidifying his place in the top tier for the remainder of the season.
Tank Bigsby | PHI
Tank Bigsby was active for the Super Bowl rematch on Sunday because Will Shipley wasn’t, but “active” for him just meant that he didn’t have to pay for an excellent seat to the most anticipated game of the week.
Week 2 offensive snaps
- Saquon Barkley: 49 (13 routes run)
- AJ Dillon: 9 (2 routes run)
- Bigsby: 0
You drafted Bigsby because you thought he had the inside track for the lead role in Jacksonville. Don’t be ashamed, I did the same thing. But that’s obviously no longer in the cards, and I’m not even sure he’s the proper handcuff to Barkley.
There are about a dozen handcuff running backs who project for a fantasy viable role should the man ahead of them get dinged up, and Bigsby isn’t on that list.
Tony Pollard | TEN
Three running backs have played more snaps than Tony Pollard through two weeks.
30 running backs have scored more PPR points than Tony Pollard through two weeks.
He’s good at falling forward (89.5% gain rate, third highest among the volume backs), but that’s about it. The hope was that he’d be efficient enough on the ground to make life easier on Cam Ward, but that’s not happening.
Opponents are worried about a breakaway run (38 carries and 10 yards is as far as a Pollard carry has gone this year), and that’s made navigating the line of scrimmage difficult.
He’s getting the work and really putting our “volume is king” narrative to the test. Pollard succeeded in this spot a season ago (128 yards on 25 carries along with seven targets across those two contests), but that seems like a ceiling outcome.
He’s a flex play you pencil in and immediately try to talk yourself out of. On a range of outcomes basis, he’s a better play than most dart-throw receivers, but if you’re an underdog, it wouldn’t take much arm-twisting to get me to tell you to fire up Cooper Kupp or Cedric Tillman types instead.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
On Sunday, Travis Etienne Jr. became the fifth running back over the past eight seasons to break off a 30+ yard run in each of the first two weeks of the season, continuing his impressive start to dominating a backfield that was viewed as a mess less than a month ago (the others: J.K. Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and D’Andre Swift).
He turned a red zone screen pass into a touchdown, something Bhaysal Tuten also did, a nod to just how impressive this offensive line play has been through two weeks.
The Tuten factor is certainly something to watch, but the lead role is Etienne’s to lose, which is set up for him to keep. Through these two weeks, he’s RB9 in total points and leads all featured backs in percentage of carries above league average in terms of yards gained before contact (70%).
Etienne was a fantasy factor earlier in his career, and with this bellcow role, it’s hard to consider him anything besides a lineup lock in all formats.
TreVeyon Henderson | NE
TreVeon Henderson has finished at least 20 snaps behind Rhamondre Stevenson in both games this year and has trailed him in routes run, solidifying that he’s not close to picking up enough of a role to be in our starting lineups.
We drafted the rookie with confidence this summer because we assumed he’d control the passing work and weasel his way into more and more traditional RB work after showcasing what he could do in space.
That was a good thought, but things are working in the opposite direction to such a degree that Mike Vrabel told us that Stevenson’s 55-yard catch via a wheel route on Sunday was a play from the preseason they had designed for Henderson to execute.
That’s a problem, and it indicates that we are multiple weeks away from Henderson being even worthy of a look in most leagues. Stevenson has caught seven of eight targets this season and had a 21-yard rush against the Dolphins last week. We had hoped that the plus-matchup would be a gateway to Henderson’s breakout, but it instead buried him a bit.
Don’t overreact.
Henderson is still the dynamic athlete he was when you drafted him, and I’d still bet on him being the more valuable asset when it matters most for us. I thought we would have that decided by Halloween, but Thanksgiving might be the new timeline.
Stay the course and keep him. For Week 3 and until otherwise noted, however, look elsewhere for a steady producer in your flex.
Tyjae Spears | TEN
Tyjae Spears (ankle) ran reasonably hard last year when given the chance, and by earning 15 targets in his last three games, there’s something here. What “something” means isn’t clear, but this former third-round pick is in a key evaluation year — midway through his rookie deal as Tony Pollard’s guaranteed money expires. He’s part of a team trying to climb from rock bottom with its new franchise quarterback in place.
I’m comfortable making the second-half-of-the-season case for Spears (currently on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury), but not before that. The Tulane product has averaged under 10 touches per game for his career, and that’s the role I’m projecting for the short term.
If you have room on your bench or IR, stashing Spears is the play. Understand that your patience could be rewarded, but outright aggression likely won’t. Tony Pollard is handling a ton of work (38 rushes through two weeks) and not showing much upside (long run: 10 yards).
Spears offers cheap exposure to the Cam Ward experience that you can ditch at a moment’s notice if the roster space becomes more valuable and is used differently.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL
The Vikings had no answer for Atlanta’s run game, which is why Tyler Allgeier gave your bench 15 PPR points.
That will happen a handful of times per season, especially if this Falcons defense is better than we thought, and it could well be the case on Sunday in Carolina.
But at what cost?
If the Panthers keep this game close and it’s the Bijan Robinson show, we risk a sub-three-point day from Allgeier, similar to Week 1 against the Buccaneers. If the Panthers can’t stop the ground attack, but Allgeier isn’t fortunate enough to get a goal-line carry, reaching double figures will be a stretch.
If this game were to be played in a month, flexing Allgeier because you have a handful of players out of action would pass the sniff test, but that’s not the case this week, and I encourage you not to overthink it.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG
The casualty of a 77-point overtime thriller will be the run game more often than not, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. only recorded five carries on Sunday in Dallas as a result.
I’m encouraged by the fact that he’s seen five targets in both games this season, especially heading into a matchup with a winless Chiefs team that could have New York in another pass-centric script.
That said, 15 carries for 39 yards isn’t going to hold off Cam Skattebo for very long.
Tracy is five spots higher than his rookie “backup” for me in Week 3, a brutal matchup I’m actively looking to avoid if possible (flex receivers I’d play over him include Matthew Gollayne and Darnell Mooney).
Woody Marks | HOU
Wood Marks nearly doubled his snap count from Week 1 (seven) to Week 2 (13) and showcased some pizzazz the Houston backfield has been lacking.
On Monday night, he carried three times for 14 yards against the Bucs while adding a 37-yard gain on his lone target.
I don’t think there’s anything actionable to do in more situations today, but if you have a deep roster, the rookie is worth a look as a bet against Nick Chubb.
Of course, even if you win that bet, you have a dreadful offensive line to worry about, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. Keep an eye on Marks in standard leagues; there’s no need to pounce in most situations.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA
This is a complicated backfield; if you’ve read my writing for any time, a complicated analogy is coming.
Zach Charbonnet is boyfriend material, so you can bring it home to Dad and not worry about the reaction. He will say the right things, compliment the cooking, and lose multiple yards on only 4.4% of his carries (since joining forces with Walker in 2023).
Is he “the one”? Probably not. His interests don’t align similarly; his family lives 3.5 hours away, and he picks up 15+ yards on only 3.7% of attempts.
Walker is marriage material. We all want our partner to have a bulletproof profile, but that doesn’t exist. Walker will show up late to your parents’ house, make a stray political comment, and lose multiple yards 7.1% of the time.
But marriage is a process (and no, I have no idea when I transitioned into an old man, but the transformation is underway, if not in full swing). You’re signing up for a lifetime with this person and are thus willing to overlook the flaws because you value the good times.
So you tell Walker a time different from the actual meeting time. You head off specific conversations before they venture into dangerous waters, all because you want his humor on full display. If you can mute his flaws long enough for everyone else in the room to see that he gains 15+ yards on 4.8% of his attempts and has seen his targets per route rate increase every year you’ve known him, they, too, will fall in love.
So that’s the question: do you want a boyfriend to prove to your parents you can sustain a relationship and pick a viable partner? Or have you built up enough equity with them that you can roll the dice with the motorcycle-riding, leather-jacket-wearing heart throb?
I can’t answer that question for you. I can tell you that Charbonnet was one of two RBs (minimum of 10 carries) to gain at least five yards on half of his carries, and that the Saints are the third-worst pre-contact defense in the league since the beginning of last season.
He will show up on time and turn 13 carries into 63 yards. As a favorite, he holds more scoring equity than usual, though his lack of involvement in the pass game will always make expecting a touchdown something I’m not willing to do.
That was an ultra-efficient way for me to say that Charbonnet is my RB29 this week, a safe flex that you can build a winner around, but probably not a life-changing DFS lineup.
