The Los Angeles Chargers’ first game of the season featured a new, pass-heavy offensive strategy. Quarterback Justin Herbert was given more passing opportunities than expected under coach Jim Harbaugh. This surprising offensive scheme has significant implications for fantasy football. As a result, managers must now re-evaluate the potential of key players on the Chargers’ roster.
Justin Herbert, QB
I was wrong here.
I knew Herbert was talented, but I didn’t think there was a chance that, at least in the early going, we would see him unleashed in a way that would allow him to keep up with the second tier of signal callers.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Harbaugh spent the summer talking up his QB1, and his playcalling proved that it was much more than lip service. The Bolts opened Friday night with three straight dropbacks (two completions and a scramble) and gave Herbert nearly three times as many opportunities (41 pass-plus-rush attempts) as their running backs had carries (16).
The diet was generally the same (the percentage of throws coming in play-action, deep downfield, and on shallow routes were all near copies of what he posted a season ago); there was just more food on his plate, and it wasn’t the result of game script.
Literally just stopping by to post Justin Herbert highlights ⚡️
I can’t wait for Week 1.
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/GJmYxRqRCA
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) August 24, 2022
Chargers’ pass rate splits:
- When tied or leading in 2024: 52.1%
- When tied or leading in Week 1: 66.1%
Only time will tell if this was a message-sending performance or a flash in the pan, but I tend to believe the former. Herbert gets a Raiders team that he’s carved up for multiple touchdown tosses in six of nine career games (career: 18 touchdowns against just two interceptions) and has a nice preparation edge over as a result of playing the showcase Brazil game last week.
If the balance of power in the AFC West is on the verge of changing, Herbert might be poised to be a weekly starter and much closer to the top than the bottom of that extensive second tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
Najee Harris, RB
It was good to see that Najee Harris recovered enough from the Fourth of July fireworks incident to be active for Friday night, but there’s a long way for him to go before I’m considering him a lock to remain on rosters.
In the win over the Chiefs, he had a catch before he had a carry, and neither came in the first quarter. A five-yard reception early in the second stanza was his only target for the day, and he had only a single carry.
Omarion Hampton was fine as the starter (0.60 yards per carry before contact, limited just how impressive he had a chance to be), and with the rookie garnering 83.3% of the non-Justin Herbert rush attempts, this is pretty clearly his job to lose.
If you want to hold onto Harris as he ramps into form, acknowledging that it’s very likely he’s just a big-name handcuff, fine by me. But if you told me that there was a Week 1 breakout player available in your more shallow league who has a direct path to weekly volume that you prefer, I’d believe you very much.
Omarion Hampton, RB
When we recap the season in January, Omarion Hampton’s 17-touch, 61-yard debut won’t make the cut, but he showed me enough to be confident that this is his job to lose, and the team as a whole showed more than enough promise when it comes to creating an advantageous environment.
The rookie had gains of eight and 11 yards in the first quarter (outside of those two spurts, his other 13 carries picked up just 29 yards) and did well to get what was blocked.
The problem? Not much was blocked. Hampton averaged under two feet per carry before contact, and if Harbaugh is going to truly put the ball in the hands of Herbert this season, there’s a chance that Hampton’s weekly value hinges more on his work as a pass catcher than we’d like.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
He’s a viable pass catcher (8.7 yards per grab while at North Carolina, with 10.5% of his touches coming via the reception), and we saw the Steelers opt for a non-Najee Harris option in that role in years past.
I came away from Week 1 about where I entered it in terms of Hampton’s value for the season. He profiles as the lead back of an above-average offense, and I expect his versatility to result in some spike weeks. If the offensive line struggles to create lanes, there is a floor to consider as Harris rounds into game shape. Still, I think you can pencil in Hampton as a weekly starter without much of a second thought right now, and there’s potential for much more in this plus-matchup on extended rest.
Keenan Allen, WR
If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck.
Patterns are noted for a reason, and it’s because they are accurate in most cases. Not all, but most. They give us guardrails in life when it comes to expectations. When your child should speak for the first time, or the temperature it’s supposed to be in the middle of September.
We generally expect things like that. Outliers happen, but the pattern is usually accurate, which is why we operate under the assumptions we do.
Keenan Allen turned 33 years of age in April and was a free agent until five weeks ago. When the NFL tells you that they aren’t interested in a player, history would suggest that, on the whole, fantasy managers shouldn’t be either.
If it shakes like an outlier and bakes like an outlier.
Allen was targeted on six of Herbert’s first 18 targets in the season opener, including a sharp route that picked up seven yards on third-and-six. I was skeptical of how sticky Allen’s 2022 was, as he posted his fantasy efficiency and end zone volume were both high-water marks since his rookie season.
Was that simply the result of a young situation in Chicago where the old man in town was the only one who really knew how to operate?
I don’t think so. Not anymore.
Allen looked awfully fresh in the season opener, earning 10 targets on 32 routes (31.3% target rate, career average: 25.8%) and clearly benefiting from the strides made by Herbert since they last joined forces.
2022 with LAC: 103 catches for 1,243 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Let me be clear: I don’t think that stat line is being repeated. But with Ladd McConkey proving that he can kick outside and still be productive, there is very much a short-yardage role for PPR managers to chase here.
This summer, he was going 60 picks behind Jakobi Meyers. Those two will be in the same stadium on Monday night, and my projections for them are eerily similar the rest of the way. Ceiling weeks aren’t going to happen on any consistent basis, but a consistent double-digit point-producer is something every fantasy team needs, and that’s probably selling this outlier a bit short.
Allen is worth considering in flex leagues with 12+ teams, something I didn’t think I’d be saying by Halloween, let alone in September.
Ladd McConkey, WR
I’m not sure it’s possible to be more impressed with how stable Ladd McConkey’s game is, considering he’s still two months shy of his 24th birthday.
Sure, we’ve seen prospects come into the pros and offer more immediately in the way of per-target upside. But McConkey plays as if he’s been identifying defenses and exposing pros for a decade.
As a rookie, he earned a 23.4% on-field target share with an average depth of look of 10.2 yards.
In Week 1, he earned a 23.7% on-field target share with an average depth of 10.3 yards.
That’s amazing consistency at face value, but when you consider that his slot rate shrank from 66% last season to 48.1% against the Chiefs, it’s borderline mind-boggling.
His route tree is far beyond his years, and it seems like the best is yet to come. McConkey totaled 13.4 PPR points on Friday night, and maybe that’s not exactly what you were looking for, given that the Bolts scored 27 points, but if Justin Herbert puts a little more air on a slant-and-go late in the second quarter, you’re looking at a 31-yard touchdown and a top-10 day at the office.
He pulled in five balls in both meetings with Vegas last season, but they were able to bottle him up to some degree. In those contests, six of his 10 catches gained no more than 10 yards, a rate that was well above his rate against the rest of the league as a rookie (41.7%).
Consider me not worried.
He was effectively just running to the sticks in those games. I’m expecting him to showcase his growth and impress again. If you have McConkey on your roster and can keep your matchup reasonably close through the weekend, I think you’re going to have every chance to get across the finish line in the second game of the Monday Night doubleheader.
Quentin Johnston, WR
Before we get into the wet blanket portion of the breakdown, let’s give Quentin Johnston credit for what he did on Friday night.
He turned seven targets into a 5-79-2 receiving line, totaling 24.9 PPR points in the process, the second-best showing of his career.
The best game of his career? In Vegas against these Raiders to wrap last season.
On the first drive, he caught a pair of passes on five routes for 38 yards and a score. That was great, but five targets on his following 31 routes weren’t ideal. In a game where he seemed to have a matchup advantage and the Chargers were willing to air the ball out, Johnston was still out-caught and out-targeted by Allen and McConkey.
If Los Angeles is truly going to let Herbert cook this season, there are going to be games like this. Understood. But the Johnston coin will land on the other side, and history suggests that we are getting that result more often than not.
Quentin Johnston in Week 1 (min. 105 WRs):
• 21st in separation
• 9th in route win rate(via @FantasyPtsData)
THE YEAR 3 BREAKOUT HAS BEGUN ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/GDkR9tMgwK
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) September 10, 2025
Nine different Chargers were targeted in the win over the Chiefs. Tre Harris figures to develop with time and become a more formidable threat, and Omarion Hampton might be the next great running back capable of breaking the game in various ways.
Johnston wasn’t drafted in 97.3% of leagues per the PFSN Mock Draft Simulator, and that obviously feels wrong as we sit here today.
Should he be on a roster?
Probably.
Could he clear 15 PPR points for the fifth time in his past seven games?
It’s possible.
Given the depth of the position league-wide and the number of options on an offense that still comes with plenty of ground-and-pound risk in spots like this where the game script projects to be in their favor, I’m not close to flexing him just yet.
