The stage is set for another electrifying chapter at the U.S. Open, as World No. 1 and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face World No. 4 Jessica Pegula in a high-stakes rematch of last year’s final.
Sabalenka secured her spot in the semifinals through a walkover after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew with a knee injury just two hours before their quarterfinal match. The Belarusian expressed her empathy for the unfortunate situation, even posting a heartfelt message wishing Vondrousova a swift recovery.
Meanwhile, Pegula, yet to drop a single set in this tournament, advanced with authority, dispatching two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 6-3.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Match Details
- Date: September 4, 2025
- Tournament: U.S. Open
- Round: Semifinals
- Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
- Category: Grand Slam
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, and Sling TV
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Head-to-Head
Sabalenka and Pegula have squared off in nine main-draw WTA matches to date, with Sabalenka holding a commanding 7–2 advantage in their rivalry. Their most recent meeting was in the final of the Miami Open on March 29, 2025, where Sabalenka emerged victorious in straight sets, 7-5, 6-2, in a match that lasted approximately one hour and 26 minutes.
Sabalenka vs. Pegula Prediction
Sabalenka’s dominant 50-10 win-loss record in 2025 highlights her prowess across various surfaces. This season, she has been a model of consistency, reaching the quarterfinals or better in 11 of 13 tournaments. She also clinched two prestigious WTA 1000 titles in Madrid and Miami.
However, she fell short in the Grand Slam finals at the Australian Open and Roland Garros and was ousted in the Wimbledon semifinals, all defeats coming at the hands of American players.
On the other side, Pegula holds a solid 37–16 record, clinching two titles in Charleston and Bad Homburg. But Sabalenka’s edge on hard courts, particularly in high-stakes events, gives the Belarusian a slight statistical advantage heading into their U.S. Open clash.
Aryna Sabalenka remains the only woman able to reach all the four Grand Slam SFs in a single season over the last 9 years
She did it twice (2023, 2025) pic.twitter.com/i1xE6fz6rm
— Mario Boccardi (@boccardi_marioo) September 3, 2025
Sabalenka is known as a high-octane baseliner with one of the tour’s most formidable serves, capable of firing aces (217 this season) and delivering winners with aggressive pace. She also wins 76.6% of her service games, with 68.0% on first-serve points and 62.4% of first serves landing in.
Pegula, while less flashy, brings consistent pressure. She wins 74.8% of her service games and maintains solid metrics on her first serve points (67.6%) and first serves in (61.5%). Putting it all together, Pegula’s edge comes from her consistency, return pressure, and ability to hold serve, which could neutralize Sabalenka’s aggression, especially in clutch situations.
However, Sabalenka enters with a power-centric game perfectly suited for hard courts. Her superior serve metrics and high win rate on the surface are attributes that favor her in controlling rallies and this matchup.
Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets
