It’s never too early to predict the race for the college football national championship. After all, isn’t that the whole point of the sport?
Week 1 gave us a view of every team in the nation, as some preseason title contenders lived up to the hype. Others looked nothing like we thought they would, putting a damper on their College Football Playoff chances, yet nonetheless winning a title.
Thanks to our PFSN College Football Playoff Meter, we determined the probability of the top 10 teams to win the national title, complete with a full analysis of each team and how they performed in their season-opener.
College Football National Championship Probability
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 16.6%
- Oregon Ducks: 8.6%
- Texas Longhorns: 7.1%
- Arizona State Sun Devils: 6%
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 5.8%
- Georgia Bulldogs: 5.7%
- Clemson Tigers: 5.6%
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 4.9%
- Ole Miss Rebels: 4.4%
- Utah Utes: 4%
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
It was far from pretty, but the Buckeyes won a monumental victory against the now No. 7 Longhorns. The much-anticipated sophomore debut of WR Jeremiah Smith, widely considered the best player in college football, was disappointing, as he dropped multiple passes and was held to just 43 receiving yards.
They still won, thanks in large part to their defense. Holding the preseason Heisman favorite in Texas quarterback Arch Manning to just 170 yards passing, a touchdown, and an interception should be a significant confidence boost for the Ohio State defense, if they weren’t already confident enough.
THE WORLD FAMOUS OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. pic.twitter.com/1jvCmPl1hy
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) August 30, 2025
New starting Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin did just enough, completing a 40-yard touchdown pass to receiver Carnell Tate to push the lead to two scores in the fourth quarter. The coaching staff was able to ease him in as the game went along and will likely give him more opportunities to show off his five-star talent.
It’s hard to say the Buckeyes looked the part of a front-runner to win the national title, but they clawed their way to a Week 1 victory while not playing their best football all around — a sign of a great football team, as they got the job done regardless.
No. 6 Oregon Ducks
The Ducks kicked off their season with a romping of the FCS Montana State Bobcats. They were clicking on all cylinders right from the jump, as they held a 17-0 lead after the first quarter and a 38-3 lead heading into halftime.
It was an extremely balanced offensive attack. They rushed and passed for 253 yards apiece. Twelve different players recorded a carry, while ten different players caught a pass, as head coach Dan Lanning and his staff spread out the play time amongst an extremely talented roster.
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Defensively, they stuffed the FCS No.2 rushing offense from a season ago, holding them to just 46 rushing yards and a meager 1.7 yards per carry. Defensive lineman A’Mauri Washington stood out, as the junior totaled five and 1.5 tackles for loss. The defensive line repeatedly got penetration as a unit and stopped the Bobcats’ ground game.
It won’t always look like this for the Ducks, but it’s hard to imagine a better start for a team looking to avenge an embarrassing Rose Bowl loss that ended their 2024 campaign.
No. 7 Texas Longhorns
Texas should’ve won the game against Ohio State based on yardage. They out-passed (170 to 126) and out-rushed (166 to 77) the Buckeyes, but only managed to put seven points on the board.
A significant part of the game that the Longhorns failed at was fourth-down conversions. They converted just one of five opportunities on fourth down, leading to four drives ending on downs. Add in Manning’s interception, and that’s essentially five turnovers against a national title contender — never a good formula.
Moving forward, it’s hard to see Manning and Texas looking any worse than they did in this game. After all, the Ohio State defense may be the best in the country. The Longhorns will be just fine.
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils cruised to a 19-point victory over the in-state FCS Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. They jumped to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter before taking their foot off the gas. Against better opponents, that can’t happen — surely something head coach Kenny Dillingham will be on his team about.
Star quarterback Sam Leavitt, named the Big 12’s Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, lived up to the hype in his first game of 2025, passing for two touchdowns and leading the team in rushing with 73 yards and another two scores.
Replacing running back Cam Skattebo was a massive topic of discussion this offseason around the program, but there appeared to be no issues in Week 1. Each of Kyson Brown, Raleek Brown, and Kanye Udoh brought the energy with the ball in their hands, potentially forming a dynamic rushing trio.
Leavitt also used his top weapon in wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who totaled 12 catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns. With a talented roster around Leavitt, the Sun Devils will be dangerous if they can make the CFP again.
No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions
It was just another day at the office for the Nittany Lions, who trounced the Nevada Wolfpack 46-11.
Penn State’s stars all stood out in the victory, as quarterback Drew Allar was highly efficient in completing 22 of 26 passes for 217 yards and a touchdown, while running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combined for three touchdowns on the ground.
Drew Allar uncorked a throw Saturday that looked as NFL-ready as you’ll see. pic.twitter.com/1qeiab5DyI
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) September 1, 2025
Top wide receivers Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena combined for 15 catches and over 150 yards, proving to give Allar much more talent on the outside than he had a season ago.
The defense also stood tall, as North Carolina Tar Heels transfer linebacker Amare Campbell led the way with six tackles (three solo). Defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton was highly disruptive, as he amassed 2.5 tackles for loss and a pass defensed.
After reaching the CFP semifinals a year ago, Penn State once again appears to be in the mix for a deep postseason run.
No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs
Some questions were entering the season about the Bulldogs’ ceiling with new quarterback Gunner Stockton. While he couldn’t fully extinguish those questions against Marshall in Week 1, Stockton more than did his part. He finished with two passing touchdowns and two on the ground, giving the ‘Dawgs a much more dynamic passer than they’ve had recently.
Georgia, known for its defense, once again fit that bill. In addition to holding the Thundering Herd to just seven points, they allowed just 207 yards of total offense and held them to just three of 15 on third-down conversions.
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Though the ceiling is still to be determined, the Bulldogs certainly did their job in flexing their muscles and taking care of an inferior opponent in Week 1.
No. 8 Clemson Tigers
The Tigers’ matchup with LSU was as physical as it gets, with both teams scratching and clawing for every inch. To much surprise, the LSU version of the Tigers clawed harder in handing Clemson a home loss to kick off the season.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik was far from great, as he completed just 19 of 38 passes for 230 yards and an interception. The run game was nonexistent, finishing with just 31 rushing yards and a paltry 1.6 yards per carry.
Credit the LSU defense, which had several standout performances, but Clemson must quickly regroup before ACC play. Winning the conference may be their best shot at making the CFP, as starting the season 0-1 is less than ideal for their chances of being an at-large.
No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks grinded out a victory in front of the nation on Sunday, finally putting away the Virginia Tech Hokies in the fourth quarter. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers was as advertised to open his second season as the starter: dynamic, entertaining, and unpolished as a passer.
LANORRIS. SELLERS. STRENGTH. pic.twitter.com/uVn7X3ogpZ
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) August 31, 2025
That’s not to say he didn’t have some nice throws, as the finishing score was on a 64-yard touchdown pass to speedy wide receiver Nyck Harbor. But he was more impressive with his creation, as he escaped the pocket and skirted up the sidelines multiple times for first downs.
Outside of Sellers, this roster isn’t especially deep. There’s high-level talent, as Harbor and defensive end Dylan Stewart played well, but if South Carolina is to make a national title push, it’ll be because Sellers put on his Superman cape and led them all the way.
No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels
Week 1 was a perfect example of Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin’s ability to regroup and reload, as they had eight players drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft but didn’t miss a beat to open this season.
New starting quarterback Austin Simmons was on fire, completing 20 of 31 passes for 341 yards and three scores. He’ll have to clean up his two interceptions, but he was awesome in his first start for the Rebels. The ground game was also awesome. They totaled 295 yards and four rushing touchdowns, led by Kewan Lacy’s trifecta of scores.
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The Georgia State Panthers are far from an SEC-level opponent, but Ole Miss displayed their potential to compete in the SEC and for a national title.
No. 25 Utah Utes
Devon Dampier’s debut at Utah was as fun as it gets. In 2024, he revived a dormant Utah offense and led them to 43 points and a fair share of highlights. Dampier, who transferred to Utah from New Mexico, completed 21 of 25 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns while leading the team with 87 yards on the ground and another score.
The defense, always a staple under head coach Kyle Whittingham, held former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava to just 11 of 22 passing for 136 yards in his UCLA Bruins debut. Utah didn’t enter this season as a title contender, but after a dominant, eye-opening Week 1 performance, they deserve to be in the conversation.
