Setting your initial lineup is one of the most challenging parts of the fantasy football season. Deciphering training camp hype from regular-season reality can make or break your first matchup. This article will analyze key offensive players on the Green Bay Packers to help you make those difficult start-or-sit decisions.
Jordan Love, QB
I like Jordan Love, but I don’t “like” him. For a player who does most of his damage from the pocket, that’s the difference between challenging for a QB1 spot in my ranks and being more of an afterthought.
The upside case isn’t hard to make. This talented kid has a command of a productive offense and has made the most of a supporting cast that lacks the type of pizzazz he had hoped for. With a roster full of WRs seemingly better fit for a secondary than a lead role, Love leads the sport in games with multiple 25+ yard completions since the start of 2023.
Jordan Love Wildcard Highlights pic.twitter.com/n7ZxLTxNFb
— Joey (@CalebGoatQB1) January 13, 2025
That’s nice, but without an alpha WR or a path to elite volume (54 passes in a shootout against the Vikings in Week 2 last season, no more than 30 attempts in all but three games after that), how does he separate himself from this glob of quarterbacks, half of which is on your waiver wire?
Dak Prescott will consistently be ranked around him, but he plays in a weather-proof stadium and has access to one of the five best receivers in the league. Jared Goff fits the same profile. As does J.J. McCarthy. Trevor Lawrence is a shade below this level, but he, too, has an elite receiver at his disposal, and he gets the benefit of change with Liam Coen coming to town.
I’m not down on Love, I’m down on the idea of Love. He’s not going to run, and without access to a game-breaking pass catcher, he’s never going to elevate to a point in my rankings where I feel obligated to start him. As long as that’s the case, why roster him?
Maybe the drafting of Matthew Golden unlocks something. If that proves to be the case, we adjust. Entering the season, however, Love doesn’t rank among my top-10 signal callers, and he’s closer to the bottom of the list when it comes to “next man up” candidates.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Personally, I think the Lions are a better football team than the Packers. The sportsbooks, however, view the difference between these NFC North rivals as far less, and if you’re inclined with a multi-billion dollar industry over a scrawny researcher typing up these notes in his basement, Jacobs is a real threat to post top-5 numbers in Week 1.
The Packers brought in Josh Jacobs last season, produced the third-highest rush rate over expectation mark in the league, and had success. If this is a close game, every over ticket on Jacobs is likely to cash, and after a stellar 2024 campaign, it’s fair to assume that the Green Bay rushing attack doesn’t lack a knack for the stylings of their lead back.
In two games against the Lions a season ago, Jacobs produced 43% over touch expectations, averaging 7.3 yards per carry in the Week 9 showdown, highlighted by a 37-yard burst, and finding paydirt three times in Week 14. Green Bay was competitive in those games, having lost just four of the eight quarters, and if that’s the case again, you’re banking on a touch floor hovering around 18.
Detroit isn’t a target. If the offense takes a step back, we could see fewer plays in Lions games, and fewer plays broadly mean fewer points. I’m not actively looking to pick on this defense with Aidan Hutchinson back (they were the fourth-best goal-to-go defense last season in spite of him missing 12 games), but my concerns for Jacobs in the opener are close to zero.
Jayden Reed, WR
Reed was the top-scoring receiver in Week 1 last season and succeeded in this matchup during their first meeting (Week 9: five catches on six targets for 113 yards). If you squint, there’s certainly a case to be made for him to work his way into your flex conversation with time.
He’s the top returning receiver on an offense we want to trust that plays in a division that requires scoring in bunches. From a bird’s-eye view, this is a situation we want exposure to.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Drill down further, however, and the bull case needs proof of concept. In comparing Reed’s second season to his first, his on-field target share fell by nearly five percentage points, with most dropoff coming inside the 20-yard line (red-zone target rate tanking from 19.2% to 15.6%).
Those trends are concerning at face value, and they only get worse when you factor in the desire to get first-round pick Matthew Golden some looks. I was a fan of Reed at cost during draft season and still believe he can be an asset with time, but as you set your Week 1 lineup, I’m not too tempted to go this direction.
Matthew Golden, WR
I won’t be surprised if a Packer pass catcher crushes his ADP and is a common name on lists that chart the most common players on fantasy playoff teams. I also won’t believe you if you can tell me with confidence who that player is right now.
Golden required first-round draft capital in April after a big season at Texas, a pick that was made with the hope that he’d work his way into the alpha WR1 role, but we are still talking about a sub-6-foot, sub-200-pound rookie with plenty of target competition.
Game count, 7+ target games in 2024
- Romeo Doubs: 4
- Dontayvion Wicks: 3
- Tucker Kraft: 3
- Christian Watson: 2
- Jayden Reed: 1
It’s easy to forget that this Detroit defense was pushing elite status before the Aiden Hutchinson injury last season, making a flat target distribution plan like what we’ve seen from Green Bay in the past a tough sell.
Oh, yeah, and the Packers were a top-5 offense in rush rate over expectation a season ago and will be looking to keep Jared Goff off the field. Golden is a rookie to watch as he piles up the routes; the opportunity is there, but he’s not a day one starter in any fantasy format.
Romeo Doubs, WR
The idea of Doubs is exciting, but the real-life version has been anything but, and is trending in the wrong direction, with Matthew Golden brought in as the hypothetical solution to Green Bay’s search for a traditional WR1.
Doubs is an athletic 6’2” 25-year-old who has had his chances to succeed. Sure, he’s scored on 15 of his 147 career receptions, a completely viable rate if he had proven the ability to earn looks consistently, but that hasn’t been the case.
Doubs’ next 100-yard game will be his first as a pro, and he’s been held to single-digit fantasy points in 58.1% of his career games. Be my guest if you want to roster Doubs as we try to pin the tail on the top Packer WR1 for the fourth straight season.
You cannot feel good about playing right now, and it will take a few games of consistent volume to convince me otherwise.
Tucker Kraft, TE
If you want to play TE roulette, who am I to stop you?
I like Kraft as a player. He was one of three tight ends to have a 20-yard catch in 10 games last season and was fantasy’s top scorer at the position in two different weeks in 2024 (the others were George Kittle and Brock Bowers).
There’s potential there, but I’m just not sure the opportunity to open the season is enough to make him a wise bet. Last season, in a year where the Packers were eighth in points scored and Kraft finished sixth at the position in offensive snaps share (84.8%, putting him in the Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Bowers tier), Kraft’s overall fantasy production was ordinary.
In a 32-team league, 19 tight ends had at least as many games with 55+ receiving yards as Kraft. Green Bay still projects as an offense that relies on Josh Jacobs, and the path to targets didn’t exactly open up for their tight end with the 23rd overall pick being spent on Matthew Golden.
Tucker Kraft 2024 highlights…
You can never have enough players like Tuck. pic.twitter.com/l7YiAfxceY
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) January 23, 2025
I don’t think Kraft is a fantasy starter this week or for the rest of the season. That said, if I’m wrong, it may not impact you.
The Packers have a Week 5 bye, and unless Kraft has a huge September, there’s a chance he’s cut loose in your league ahead of that. If you see usage trends you like in the first month, sit tight and pounce with time. Green Bay gets the Bengals and Cardinals immediately following the bye, giving Kraft’s star the potential to take off after his current manager has cut bait.
I’m tracking, but I’m doing it from a distance.
