The AFC South doesn’t have many expectations riding into the 2025 season. The Tennessee Titans enter 2025 with the worst 2024 record, the Indianapolis Colts are in absolute disarray, the Houston Texans have a gutted offensive line, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have a drama-filled front office.
That said, at least one of these teams has to make the playoffs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if two of them did.
Using PFSN’s Impact grades, we simulated the NFL schedule 1000 times so you don’t have to. Here is how we project the 2025 AFC South to play out.
4) Tennessee Titans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.0-10.0
- Division Win Probability: 15.7%
- Playoff Probability: 22.2%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.2%
Rookie QB Cam Ward has to be one of the least talked-about first overall picks in recent memory. With the drama surrounding Cleveland Browns QB Shedeur Sanders, Ward has been an afterthought in the NFL media. It’s important to remember that this isn’t at all an indictment of his play.
The Titans ranked 29th in our OLi Impact grades, finishing with a score of 68.6 on the season. Since 2019, it ranks 154th out of 192 offensive lines. This offseason, they committed to improving that weakness by signing Kevin Zeitler to start at right guard and Dan Moore Jr. to start at left tackle.
According to TruMedia, Zeitler ranked 30th of 189 offensive linemen with over 200 snaps in pressures allowed per pass blocking snap. Unfortunately, Moore ranked 164th in that same metric. Despite this, signing anyone would be an upgrade over Nicholas Petit-Frere, who was the third-worst in this metric.
The offensive line will be very important to enhancing Ward’s development. Ward finished his college career with a 20% pressure-to-sack rate and a 2.83-second time to throw. Ward’s play style is likely conducive to the offensive line’s struggles, with his tendency to hold the ball looking for hero play.
Luckily, some of that should be offset a little by Tyler Lockett and Calvin Ridley, who excel in route running and separation.
Defensively, the Titans have a very solid defensive line. T’Vondre Sweat two-gaps the middle, and Jeffrey Simmons and Sebastian Joseph-Day play the defensive end positions in a primarily 3-4 defense. Simmons graded out as our number three defensive tackle in 2024 with a score of 87.2 (B+).
Ranking 28th in the NFL in both pressure and quick pressure rate is likely because the team lacks pass-rushing linebackers to take advantage of the opportunities set up by the three defensive linemen.
Arden Key was relatively average with a pressure rate of 10.2% (85th of 179), but Harold Landry III fell off a cliff, ranking 140th with seven of nine sacks on plays where the quarterback held the ball for longer than the league average. Once again, the Titans front office made their best effort to rectify that by signing Dre’Mont Jones, who should be a solid upgrade in place of Landry.
Overall, the roster is poor, and there were many things they needed to improve on after 2024. What gives me hope for the team is that the front office made some solid decisions (other than Moore’s overpay), and overall, this team is trending upwards.
3) Indianapolis Colts
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.3-9.7
- Division Win Probability: 20.0%
- Playoff Probability: 27.9%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.4%
As a lifelong Indianapolis Colts fan born and raised in Indiana, forgive me for the cynicism in this analysis. This meme right here says it all. I grew up watching two of the greatest ever to do it as my team’s quarterback. Beyond spoiled, knowing that it didn’t matter what was around them, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck would will this team to victory.
My son: Dad, what was Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning Colts like? pic.twitter.com/zVn7Or4VtG
— Zack Widing (@zCloudtech) February 4, 2025
Fast forward to now, and I have to watch the Colts organization throw away their future to salvage their job. If this were poker, I’d say Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen are drawing dead.
In terms of probability, Daniel Jones is a known quantity. At his best, Jones ranked 11th in EPA (expected points added) per drop-back while leading the Giants to a playoff victory in a very lucky season that got Jones vastly overpaid.
The most likely Jones to show up is the guy who ranks 50th among 85 quarterbacks since 2019 in EPA per drop-back. On the other hand, Anthony Richardson is awful in terms of accuracy, but he at least has two high-potential upsides that many analysts (myself included) would love to see play out. Unreal athleticism and physical tools, and he’s still super young and inexperienced.
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Unfortunately for the Colts, their leash has been shortened after the past two seasons of failure due to injuries and other issues. They now don’t have the green light to allow Richardson to develop fully, so they must turn to the guy likely to get the most wins.
That’s where PFSN’s projection of 7.3 wins comes in. The most obvious outcome is bad enough to miss the playoffs but too good for a valuable draft pick.
The rest of the roster is exactly why we aren’t bad enough to obtain a high draft pick. The Colts’ offensive line ranked sixth last season with a score of 82.9 in our Impact grades, and we have complete continuity this season, with every starter already having experience in this scheme.
Pair this with the fact that Deforest Buckner and Grover Stewart are a solid defensive tackle duo alongside Laiatu Latu, who is set to breakout in year two. Then, in the secondary, Ballard did a fantastic job of improving the roster with Cam Bynum and Charvarius Ward.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.5-9.5
- Division Win Probability: 21.4%
- Playoff Probability: 29.3%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.6%
Despite our lowly projections of the Jaguars, I truly believe they could achieve a tail outcome and shock everyone with a playoff appearance.
Liam Coen has a solid track record as a coach. He was the offensive coordinator of the Kentucky Wildcats in 2021 and 2023. With data going back as far as 2019, both the 2021 and 2023 seasons rank first in points per game, passing yards per game, and passing EPA.
Fast forward to his time in the NFL, and similar results follow. Despite the disastrous 2022 season with every injury imaginable at quarterback, Coen kept the Los Angeles Rams competitive in the pass game.
In 2024, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked fifth in the league in Passing EPA. Now, Coen goes from having a solid player in Baker Mayfield to one of the most naturally talented football throwers in Trevor Lawrence.
Before the injuries, 2023 was slated to look like his 2022 season, when Lawrence was a borderline top-10 quarterback. Fast-forward to now, and he’s got the best offensive-minded coach of his career and is throwing to Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. I am absolutely all-in on the Jaguars’ offense this season.
Despite one of the most explosive run-games in football with RB Bucky Irving, one of Coen’s most impressive features was having a locked-in dial of when to pass and when to run, achieving a practically ideal pass rate over expected of -0.2%. Something I expect to see change drastically for Coen’s Jaguars is the average depth of target.
The Bucs had the seventh-lowest ADOT at 7.0 yards per throw and averaged throws about 2.1 yards behind the sticks. In his two healthy seasons, Lawrence ranked 13th in the league in the percentage of throws past the sticks and is known for his ability to throw aggressively down the field.
Defensively, the Jaguars are a little bit weak in the secondary, but Travon Walker has been steadily improving each season, and they also have Josh Hines-Allen on the other side.
Devin Lloyd was relatively solid last season, ranking 19th of 80 with a score of 80.5 in our LBi Impact grades. If the Jaguars can improve from their 31st-ranked defense in EPA to just around the 15-25 mark, the offense will be good enough to do some real damage.
1) Houston Texans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.5-8.5
- Division Win Probability: 42.9%
- Playoff Probability: 52.4%
- Super Bowl Probability: 2.3%
The Houston Texans made the playoffs last season despite ranking 25th in offensive EPA per play. A large part of this was their ninth-worst pressure rate allowed and absolutely abysmal play-calling, which forced them into some of the worst third-down situations in the league.
It’s tough to tell what Nick Caley will do as the Texans’ first-time offensive coordinator this season. However, I am at least optimistic, knowing that he was the pass-game coordinator for the Rams last season, who ranked ninth in the league in first-down pass rate.
I’m sure you’ve heard the adage, “addition by subtraction,” but I’m not sure that applies to Houston’s offensive line. Tunsil ranked 21st in lowest pressure rate allowed, showcasing that he still had some left in the tank before being sent to Washington. Now, they replace him with a rookie in Aireontae Ersery alongside what could be the worst interior offensive line in the league.
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The saving grace for this team is arguably the best defense in football. Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter ranked 14th and 28th, respectively, in pressure rate last season. Also, Hunter ranked first and Anderson seventh in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. On top of that, they have one of the best secondaries in football, led by arguably a top-five corner in Derek Stingley Jr.
Overall, the Texans’ defense is elite and should allow Stroud and his talented wide receivers enough opportunities to keep them afloat in a weak division. Just don’t expect them to go very far once they make it because offensive line issues are one of the most easily exploitable weaknesses in the playoffs.
