In 2024, Joe Mixon had six straight RB1 finishes (Weeks 6 to 11), something that Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs couldn’t lay claim to. His versatility and nose for the end zone were on full display during the first half of the season, but his usage and efficiency tanked when fantasy football managers needed it most.
Which version of him should you expect in 2025?
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Outlook
During overlapping segments, Mixon had a stretch of four straight games with 24+ carries and another run of five consecutive games with 4+ targets. He’s entering his age-29 season and with over 1,800 carries (2,100 touches) on his NFL resume, physical decline is certainly a worry. Still, he defended Father Time at a high level early on last season, and that makes outright counting him out dangerous.
Zone YPC vs. Man/Gap YPC (2021-2024)
Joe Mixon: 3.8 YPC vs. 4.4 YPC
Nick Chubb: 4.8 YPG vs. 5.2 YPC
Dameon Pierce: 4.0 YPC vs. 4.1 YPC
Woody Marks (NCAA): 4.8 YPC vs. 5.5 YPC51% of Houston’s runs came on zone concepts last year (9th-most) https://t.co/3ZdJDCv2UP
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 12, 2025
PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator has him coming off the board as a middling RB2, a price tag that seems to account for the risks that come with aging. The Texans made noise this summer when they inked Nick Chubb to a deal, and many managers took that as a negative for Mixon’s value, but is that right?
For me, it should be viewed as good news. Chubb is the same age as Mixon, but has missed 70.6% of games over the past two seasons and appears to be working on borrowed time from a health standpoint.
Not only do I not fear him taking much food off the plate of their starting running back, his signing reinforces the win-now trajectory of this franchise. What better way to do that than to milk everything possible out of Mixon before the team has a potential out of his contract this upcoming offseason?
Since missing 10 games in 2020, Mixon has ripped off four straight seasons with at least 300 receiving yards and seven rushing touchdowns, proving to be a per-game fantasy asset annually.
I do fear that there is some management of his work late in the season this year, like last, should the Texans be positioned well for the postseason (it worked in 2024, he ran for 194 yards and a pair of scores on 43 postseason carries), but that’s a trade market conversation we can have in November.
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I’m thrilled to take Mixon, among other veterans, in this general range, like Alvin Kamara and James Conner. Last season profiles as more of a floor than an expectation for this offensive environment as a whole, and if that moves toward the mean, Mixon can continue to age with grace.
The “fade old running backs” narrative is a bit played out as athletes across the professional scope are peaking longer, but I do think there is something to be said for managing your profile. I like Mixon, but pairing him with the two elder backs mentioned above or on a roster that added Derrick Henry in the early stages is layering risk that I’m not looking to do.
Cameron Sheath’s Joe Mixon Fantasy Projection
Joe Mixon headed into the 2025 offseason as the undisputed lead back in the Texans’ offense. The former Bengals star quietly tied Josh Jacobs in fantasy points per game (17.2) last season, but finished 11 spots lower at RB17. Ankle injuries saw Mixon miss three games and limited him in three more. Wildly, from Weeks 1-15, before he played through his second injury, Mixon was the RB2 overall in fantasy points per game (20.2).
Unfortunately, injury has struck again for the former Bengal, ruling him out for at least the first four games of the season, after the team decided against activating him before cut-down day. Mixon should still be the team’s RB1 when he returns, but there are no guarantees around when that will be.
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Outgoing OC Bobby Slowik was replaced by Nick Caley, who joins Houston from a Rams team that leaned heavily on RB Kyren Williams in 2024. Workhorse usage is rare in today’s NFL, but Mixon could have a huge role if he can get himself back on the field.
The Texans star’s ADP will be hard to gauge after the team announced his PUP designation, as the player will likely slip another round or so before the season starts. Mixon is a massive risk, but it could pay off handsomely if he can return in Week 5. Your starting running backs should be on your roster by the time you need to make a decision on Mixon, making him a worthwhile stash with league-winning potential.
