Last year, the New England Patriots were severely lacking in the wide receiver department. To help remedy that, they brought in veteran WR Stefon Diggs. Well past his prime and coming off a serious knee injury, what does Diggs have to offer both the Patriots and fantasy football managers this season?
Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook
It goes without saying that 2020-22 Diggs is never coming back. The elite WR1 during his first few seasons in Buffalo is gone. However, Diggs always had a skill set that did not rely on athleticism. Those tend to age well. He’s the type of receiver who could realistically play and be effective into his mid-30s. It all depends on his usage.
Stefon Diggs 2024 #ReceptionPerception profile is up on the site!
Highlights:
– 71.6% success rate vs man coverage
– 78.8% success rate vs zone
– 71.4% success rate vs press
– Excellent on out-breakersObviously these results are much lower than Diggs’ peak elite seasons but… pic.twitter.com/6rJjk5u94S
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 20, 2025
Two years ago, over the second half of his final season in Buffalo, Diggs was not used properly. No longer able to win like he used to on the outside, Diggs was legitimately droppable over the final two months of the 2023 season.
Last year, Diggs was traded to the Texans, who already had two established outside receivers in Nico Collins and Tank Dell. That pushed Diggs into the slot more often, which is where he needs to be at this point in his career.
Diggs ran a career-high 45.3% of his routes out of the slot. In reality, it should’ve been even more.
From Weeks 1 to 5, Diggs ran 60.6% of his routes from the slot. From Weeks 6 to 8, Diggs had 37.8% of his routes from the slot. So, what changed? Nico Collins strained his hamstring in Week 5. With him out, Diggs was forced back outside. But it was never the plan.
Diggs is on a new team again this year, but perhaps his usage last season can give us some insight into his role this year. The Patriots lack a true WR1, and Diggs is best-suited for that role. Much like last year, we may see Diggs forced to play outside more in the absence of superior options.
It’s a small sample size, as Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8, but Diggs was far more effective from the slot. Diggs averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game during the games in which he was a 60% slot player. He only averaged 13.2 PPG when forced to play outside with Collins out.
The Patriots’ WR room features DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kendrick Bourne, and rookie Kyle Williams as the main four guys behind Diggs. It’s hard to see Mike Vrabel entrusting any of them as the X receiver ahead of Diggs.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Diggs will move into the slot in three receiver sets. Unfortunately, it’s hard to project his slot rate anywhere near 2024 levels.
Last year, the Patriots ran 11 personnel just 59% of the time, 18th in the league. In 2023, Vrabel’s last year in Tennessee, the Titans used 11 personnel 53.3% of the time, 25th in the league.
I do not like the idea of a 31-year-old wide receiver coming off a torn ACL who is not expected to be consistently ready for Week 1 being asked to win on the outside. At the same time, Diggs’ WR40 ADP is incredibly reasonable. I have him at WR37. There’s almost no risk and potential to get a solid weekly WR3 for most of the season.
Frank Ammirante’s Stefon Diggs Projection
Stefon Diggs is entering his age-32 season and coming off a torn ACL, so there’s a lot of risk in his profile. He is a veteran who was already showing some signs of decline, and I don’t see a high ceiling for him with the Patriots.
The good news is that Diggs is ahead of schedule in his recovery, looking poised to be ready for action once the season starts. As the clear-cut WR1 for Drake Maye, there’s some appeal here.
But even with improvements on offense, there’s likely going to be some growing pains here. If I’m targeting a Patriots wideout, I prefer to wait to take a shot on rookie Kyle Williams, who can make big plays downfield. If I wanted some floor late in drafts, I can go with DeMario Douglas.Â
Diggs is looking like an avoid for me at the current ADP. It’s just too hard for me to bet on a 30-plus-year-old wideout coming off a serious injury.
