In a rookie class that featured the wide receiver star power of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze, it was Brian Thomas Jr. who wound up being the second-best of the bunch. Looking to build on his impressive rookie campaign, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ top wide receiver comes with a hefty price increase in fantasy football drafts. Is Thomas poised for even greater heights in 2025?
Should You Draft Brian Thomas Jr. in Fantasy?
There are a handful of players who are true league winners every year, and Thomas was one of them.
With an average draft position ranging from the seventh to ninth rounds, depending on when you drafted, Thomas gave fantasy managers 16.7 fantasy points per game, making him one of the best values of 2024.
In the most critical weeks of the fantasy season, Thomas posted 32.5, 28.2, and 23.9-point games, carrying fantasy managers to championships. The crazy part is that Thomas was both better than his numbers indicated and should have been even better.
Thomas did not open the season as an every-down player. He hit an 80% snap share just once in his first seven games.
Once Thomas started to hit his stride, he suffered a rib injury. That injury didn’t cost him any games, but it hindered his ability on the field.
Thomas posted 6.2 and 3.2 fantasy points in Weeks 9 and 10, the games he was most affected by the issue. If we remove those games, he would have averaged 18.3 PPG. As a reminder, he did that with Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones at quarterback. Imagine if he had competent QB play.
It’s pretty incredible that Brian Thomas Jr. had this much production left on the field last year and still finished 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards. pic.twitter.com/6P0XQn7bje
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) May 29, 2025
If only a couple of these deep balls connect, we could be talking about Thomas coming off a top-five WR season as a rookie.
Thomas averaged 2.55 yards per route run, eighth in the league, and 9.6 yards per target, 15th in the league. This player was efficient as a rookie, but he did not see nearly as much volume as he should have given his ability.
Thomas saw a 25.5% target share and was targeted on 26.5% of his routes run, both of which ranked 20th. There are certainly not 19 wide receivers who should see more volume than Thomas.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Entering his sophomore season, we should see plenty of growth from Thomas. He has the potential to push a 30% target share, and there’s plenty of room for him to be targeted more frequently, especially considering the consolidated nature of the Jaguars’ passing attack, which features no real threats outside of Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter.
New head coach Liam Coen was the architect behind Baker Mayfield’s career season in 2024. He coaxed another WR1 season out of 31-year-old Mike Evans and had Chris Godwin pushing 20 PPG before the latter broke his ankle in Week 7.
Thomas’ WR8 ADP may seem expensive, but there’s a ton of room for growth for an already great player.
The Jaguars do not project to have a particularly great backfield, meaning this team could throw a ton, especially with a defense checking in at No. 31 in PFSN’s Defense+ metric.
Last season, the Jaguars only had a 64% pass rate when trailing by 7+ points, the 12th lowest in the league. Even when losing, they were running more than they should have been. We could be in store for more volume and better play calling from a smart, young offensive mind. I rank Thomas as my WR7 and would be thrilled to pick at the back end and make him the cornerstone of my fantasy teams.
Frank Ammirante’s Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Projection
Brian Thomas Jr. turned in a terrific rookie season, catching 87-of-133 targets for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, producing at a high level despite playing in a dysfunctional Jaguars offense.
Now, the team is expected to improve in Year 2, as Liam Coen takes over as head coach. We saw what Coen did with the Buccaneers, turning them into one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. We could even see Coen scheme up favorable matchups for Thomas, especially as a “big slot,” which bodes well for his fantasy value.
There are only two concerns that I have with Thomas. For one, his second-half surge came with Mac Jones at quarterback, instead of Trevor Lawrence. However, this is only a minor drawback, as I expect Lawrence to take a leap under Coen, just like Baker Mayfield did.
The second issue is that Thomas comes at a price where I can take an elite running back like Derrick Henry or De’Von Achane instead. I’m going with an RB-heavy approach in the early rounds, so this often makes me steer clear of Thomas.
This is an ascending superstar with a huge ceiling, making him one of the top wideout targets in drafts. I’d take him over former LSU teammate Malik Nabers.
