Just one more week of preseason separates us from the true beginning of fantasy football season, when the Dallas Cowboys face the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football. You’ve heard the saying, “expect the unexpected”– and nowhere does it ring truer than in football. Just ask anyone who’s taken a swing at a survivor or Last Man Standing pool (myself included).
Needless to say, every NFL season has plenty of players and teams overperforming based on preseason expectations (see 2024 Commanders), rookies who were hyped up only to have mediocre seasons or rough ones through growing pains, and everything in between. Let’s dive into some possible fantasy outcomes fitting that bill for this year.
Ladd McConkey to Finish as a Top 9 PPR WR
McConkey already had an impressive rookie campaign, hauling in 82 receptions and seven touchdowns. The only real competition for targets is veteran wideout Keenan Allen, who signed a homecoming deal this offseason and could open things up for McConkey, drawing some more attention from defenses.
Ladd McConkey to the moon 🚀 pic.twitter.com/3To79yheFH
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) August 16, 2025
McConkey finished with 240.9 Fantasy PPG in PPR formats, better than 53 points over his expected number. He was extremely hot to end the season with five catches and 50 yards in 7 straight games, good enough for a WR16 finish.
James Cook Will See His TD Total Drop By 25%
Cook had a pretty solid 2024 season overall, finishing as RB11 in PPR leagues, but that was skewed heavily by finding the end zone a combined 18 times between rushing and receiving scores. Yes, he finally ended his holdout and signed a 4-year $48M extension. Still, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson were utilized more down the stretch of the regular season and during the Bills’ deep playoff run.
Their success likely influenced the delayed negotiations for Cook, and they will probably continue to see an uptick in touches this season. Cook will also be due for touchdown regression similar to what I wrote about previously for Ravens TE Mark Andrews.
Former MVP Lamar Jackson Finishes the Season Outside the Top 4 QBs
Jackson has won MVP twice and made first-team All-Pro three times now, including last year, which rewarded his ridiculous season, during which he nearly touched 500 total fantasy points.
If history is any indication, however, his passing totals will regress in 2025 as he is coming off a season when he averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt, a full yard better than his career average, and an 8.6% touchdown rate, more than two points higher than his career rate.
This is also Jackson’s age-29 season, the point at which most rushing QBs typically start to see a decline in production in that category. For context, we can look at Cam Newton or Russell Wilson in recent history — both of whom averaged roughly 600 yards their first 5-6 seasons in the league, but neither accomplished the feat after turning 29. Newton’s injuries and mileage led to his decline, and Wilson’s mere 376 yards on the ground in his age-29 season led him to focus much more on his passing attack from that point on.
Is Lamar going to fall off this year? Unlikely, but there is a path for him to see a significant drop from the high standards he has set for himself and for the other Tier 1 QBs to surpass his fantasy output.
TJ Hockenson Will Bounce Back to 2023 Form to Finish Top 4 Among TEs
Hockenson had a down year in 2024, primarily due to returning from a torn ACL the previous year and not having the benefit of an offseason with last season’s newcomer quarterback, Sam Darnold.
Heading into 2025, Hockenson is projected as TE6 by PFSN for 73 catches, 753 yards, and 4 TDs. He should see his snap % jump back to a number closer to the one he posted in his Pro Bowl and All-Pro seasons in 2022 and 2023, roughly 80% both years. He will also be the safety valve for 1st-time starter quarterback JJ McCarthy.
