Range of outcomes is an important concept in fantasy football. We typically project players based on what is most likely to happen. However, the way to win leagues is to draft players who outperform their ADP.
You want to focus heavily on maximizing upside, but what if you could do that while minimizing risk? These players being drafted at their fantasy floor represent the perfect combination of safety and upside.
Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP QB27)
It goes without saying that no one is drafting Geno Smith in a 1QB league. But QB27 is straight up disrespectful. Now, to be fair, I understand it. Quarterback is incredibly deep this year. But for the purposes of this exercise, Smith certainly qualifies.
Since his 2022 renaissance, Smith has posted fantasy points per game averages of 18.5, 15.7, and 16.5. None of those are winning leagues, but he’s never finished lower than QB20. As one of the last surefire starting quarterbacks with no in-season benching risk being drafted, it’s safe to say Smith can only go up from his ADP.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (ADP RB19)
I will preface this by saying James Conner remains an injury risk. The primary reasons for his depressed ADP are his age (30) and the fact that he’s never played a full season in his career. When on the field, though, there is almost no path to Conner being worse than where he is being drafted.
Conner was the RB15 last year, averaging 15.9 PPG. Since his 2018 breakout, Conner has averaged at least 14.6 PPG in all but one season. Outside of 2020, when he finished as the RB25, Conner’s worst finish has been RB16.
In his four years with the Arizona Cardinals, Conner’s worst PPG average was 15.4 in 2022, and his worst positional finish was last year at RB15.
Trey Benson has improved considerably and is the clear RB2 — he very well may see more work — but this team loves Conner. He is the RB1. He is the workhorse. And for as long as he stays on the field, he will be better than RB19.
Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards After Contact per Attempt for the 2024 season [@FantasyPtsData]
> Bucky Irving, Ken Walker, and James Conner remain elite runners
> Jordan Mason + Aaron Jones could be a fun backfield
> Wonder if Ray Davis ever gets more chances pic.twitter.com/GV3AvmxKgn
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 5, 2025
With that said, Conner is still more of a floor pick than a ceiling pick. When taking players at their floor, we typically want the safety of knowing they won’t finish lower while also possessing significant upside. Conner does have more upside than downside, but it’s hard to envision him being a true league winner, as the upper echelon of his range of outcomes is likely 16 PPG.
A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP WR10)
We’ve now seen three seasons of A.J. Brown in a run-heavy Philadelphia Eagles offense. He’s been remarkably consistent, averaging 17.6, 17.0, and 16.7 PPG. Last year was his worst season, finishing as the overall WR12.
Brown is one of the safest players in fantasy. Outside of injury, there is no way he fails. My problem with Brown has always been the lack of upside.
Brown does not lack the talent to post a 20-points-per-game season. But we’re six years into his career, and he has a proven ceiling capped at around 18 PPG, at best. In year seven, with the same quarterback, the same coach, and a very talented WR2 in DeVonta Smith, why would that change?
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It seems the fantasy community has figured this out, which is why Brown is toward the bottom of the clear top 11 wide receivers that are a step above the rest in fantasy this year.
Since Brown is cheaper than he has been in years past, that makes him more palatable in fantasy drafts. At worst, he will return par value. At best, you can get a mid-WR1 finish, which is something he’s done before.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP WR23)
All Smith has done the past three seasons is produce. He had a great rookie year with over 900 receiving yards, albeit one that wasn’t super impactful in fantasy.
Since then, he’s averaged 15.0, 14.2, and 15.3 PPG. His worst finish was WR20 in 2023. Yet, after a season in which the Eagles had a 45% pass rate, which is bound to regress, Smith is being drafted as the WR23. Why?
People just don’t give Smith the respect he deserves. I fully believe Smith could be an alpha WR1 if asked to do so. Why? Because we’ve seen it. Last year, we saw what Smith looks like without AJB. In the two games Brown missed, Smith posted 17.7 PPG. That is his upside.
OH MY DEVONTA. ON 3RD AND 22. UNBELIEVABLE CATCH.
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/N2wD3Nlfxf— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
With Brown, Smith averaged 14.9 PPG. That is essentially his floor in a season where the Eagles dominated opponents and rarely had to throw in the second half. If nothing changes, Smith will still be a good pick at value. He won’t disappoint.
But if Brown gets hurt or the Eagles find themselves in more competitive games, we could see Smith elevate into borderline WR1 status. That is the archetype of a player we want to bet on every time. Smith is all upside with zero risk.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP WR40)
Is Jakobi Meyers the most disrespected wide receiver in fantasy football history? I think there’s a case to be made.
All Meyers does is produce — every year. He outperforms his ADP… every year. He’s just not exciting or flashy. He doesn’t have WR1 upside. So, fantasy managers pass on him in favor of higher upside options. I get it. But the fact remains, Meyers isn’t even being drafted at his floor; he’s being drafted below it.
Meyers is still just 28 years old. Since 2021, he’s improved every season, topping out at 14.5 PPG last year. He’s never finished lower than WR35. In an absolute worst-case scenario where TE Brock Bowers completely dominates, we saw it last year, and Meyers was the WR20. And he did that with a mere four touchdown receptions.
Jakobi Meyers pic.twitter.com/Is4s5Zrr12
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 27, 2025
The Las Vegas Raiders are going to be better this season. Geno Smith is a massive quarterback upgrade, only to be outdone by the even larger improvement that is moving on from Antonio Pierce (seriously, who thought he could be a head coach in the NFL?) to Pete Carroll.
We know Carroll wants to run the ball, and he will do that with rookie RB Ashton Jeanty. However, the reduction in passing volume necessitated by the Raiders being a terrible team last year will be offset by the improvement in their offense. Meyers should score more.
Additionally, the Raiders’ defense ranks 21st in PFSN’s 2025 rankings. This isn’t exactly a team that is going to be able to sit on leads, resulting in plenty of volume for Meyers, who earned a 24.9% target share last season.
It’s hard to project Meyers to be better than he was last year, but there’s no plausible way he isn’t a top-36 WR.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys (ADP TE15)
Jake Ferguson is by no means set to be a league winner. However, it’s hard to see how he doesn’t at least match his TE15 ADP. Detractors may point to Ferguson’s dismal TE22 finish last season when he averaged 7.5 PPG. But it’s important to place that in the proper context.
Two years ago, Ferguson averaged 10.4 PPG. Those are back-end TE1 numbers. Sure, you can stream that, but that’s kind of the point. Ferguson is virtually free in fantasy drafts and can provide replacement-level production.
MORE READING: Jason Katz’s Fantasy Football TE Sleepers For 2025 Include Colston Loveland, Brenton Strange, and Mason Taylor
Last year, Ferguson was the same guy… until QB Dak Prescott went down. The tight end averaged his usual 10.2 PPG until his quarterback tore his hamstring. Then, with backup Cooper Rush (and a sprinkle of Trey Lance), Ferguson averaged an appalling 5.3 PPG the rest of the way.
With Prescott back healthy and the Cowboys possessing the worst running back room in the league, plus a bad defense, it’s hard to see how Ferguson fails at his current cost in fantasy drafts.
