Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will both return to action for the first time since the Wimbledon final. Both players will compete at the Cincinnati Open after missing out on the Canadian Open.
Alcaraz and Sinner have already had some good runs at the Masters 1000 event, with the Italian being the defending champion while the Spaniard was the runner-up in 2023. The men’s singles draw for the 2025 edition of the Cincinnati Open has been released and both players have received pretty favorable draws. But, who out of Alcaraz and Sinner has the tougher draw?
Jannik Sinner is the top seed in Cincinnati and he has received a bye to the second round, where he will face either a qualifier or Vit Kopřiva. The Italian’s most probable opponent in the third round will be 30th seed Gabriel Diallo, who is no slouch. However, he should be able to see off the Canadian without much trouble and reach the fourth round.
Here, the World No. 1 will most likely take on 13th seed Tommy Paul. 19th seed Tomáš Macháč is also on this side of the draw but his form has not been particularly impressive in recent months, barring a quarterfinal display in Halle.
Sinner won his last three matches against Paul and while the American did have his moments (forcing two tiebreaks at the 2024 US Open and winning a set 6-1 in Rome), the World No. 1 should be able to get the better of him and reach the quarterfinals in Cincinnati. Here, his potential opponents include 11th seed Casper Ruud and eighth seed Lorenzo Musetti.
While Ruud has not had the best of seasons, Musetti’s injuries have not helped him and his performances suffered a dip after the French Open. The others in this side of the draw include Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas, both of whom seem to be far from their best.
Sinner’s toughest challenge might come if he reaches the semifinals, as here, he could potentially face fourth seed Taylor Fritz, who keeps improving day by day. The likes of Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe and Holger Rune are also capable of going deep from this side of the draw.
How Could Carlos Alcaraz’s Draw Unfold at Cincinnati Open
Like Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz also received a bye to the second round of the Masters 1000 event, and here, he will lock horns with either Mattia Bellucci or Damir Džumhur. The Spaniard should not have much of an issue reaching the third round, where his potential opponents include 26th seed Tallon Griekspoor and Hamad Medjedovic.
Defending champion @janniksin leads the men’s draw 🦊 pic.twitter.com/ke5fftSAtM
— Cincinnati Open (@CincyTennis) August 5, 2025
Alcaraz’s current run of form seems more than good enough to overcome both players and reach the fourth round, where his potential opponents include 16th seed Jakub Menšík and 24th seed Denis Shapovalov. The Czech had an impressive start to the 2025 season, winning the Miami Open. However, his performances have suffered a dip since the clay season, and Alcaraz should not have much trouble beating him or Shapovalov.
If the World No. 2 reaches the quarterfinals, he could face either sixth seed Alex de Minaur or ninth seed Andrey Rublev. The Aussie put up a tough fight against the Spaniard in the final of the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam, pushing the match to three sets. However, Alcaraz’s more versatile game should see him get the better of De Minaur should the two lock horns.
2023 finalist @carlosalcaraz joins the party 🎉 pic.twitter.com/ylXqDSCP3S
— Cincinnati Open (@CincyTennis) August 5, 2025
As for Rublev, the Russian won a set against the Spaniard at Wimbledon but on paper, his current form does not look good enough to trouble Alcaraz enough. So, there is a very strong chance of the World No. 2 reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati.
This is where things can get a little tricky for Carlos Alcaraz, as his potential opponents include Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, both of whom are in the semifinals of the ongoing Canadian Open. Zverev has a positive head-to-head record against the Spaniard and while Shelton is yet to beat him, he has been in impressive form lately and is capable of putting up a tough fight.
Considering how both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have played, it’s hard to not see them reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati. While both players have received favorable draws at the Masters 1000 event, Alcaraz’s could be called tougher given his potential opponents in the final four.
