ADP is a solid tool for planning your draft, with everyone more or less singing from the same hymn sheet regarding where players should be drafted. However, with opinions differing on every player, reaching for the ones you want is often the only way to guarantee they’ll be on your roster.
Below is a list of seven players I’m targeting in drafts this year, even if it means taking them earlier than necessary. Some of these players made the list due to their elite upside, and some because they allow me to plan my draft around them. Meanwhile, some made the list because it’s just fun to take shots on players you believe in, rather than simply following data for all of your decisions.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane isn’t being spoken about enough as the potential RB1 overall in fantasy, but it has nothing to do with his ability. The worry over Tua Tagovailoa’s health is understandable, and it arguably affected Achane more than any other player in 2024.
The electric running back averaged a massive 22.6Â fantasy points per game with a healthy Tagavailoa last year, which would have ranked first at the position over the whole season. However, that dropped to just 8.63Â points per game without his quarterback, which would have made him the RB42 at the position.
The correlation is clear as day, and the reason can be found in Achane’s targets. With Tagovailoa, Achane averaged 6.64 targets per game, a rate that would have seen him lead the position, 24 targets ahead of Alvin Kamara. Without his teammate, those targets dropped to just 2.33 per game, as the Dolphins’ offense crumbled.
There is no guarantee of better health for Tagovailoa in 2025, far from it, but there could be a safer floor for Achane. Overall, Dolphins running backs accounted for 23.1% of the team’s targets last year, the third-highest rate in the league.
🎥 De’Von Achane calls game with the biggest touchdown run of the season 💨 (@NFL) #GoFins https://t.co/z1QEhfhURe pic.twitter.com/oP9oHKuVu0
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) December 23, 2024
New backup quarterback Zach Wilson may not inspire much confidence, but he targeted running backs at the same rate in his last season as a starter. Going in the second round of drafts, if Achane can maintain a high target rate regardless of his quarterback, he could break fantasy football in 2025.
Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Davante Adams could easily land among the top-12 wide receivers in fantasy football this season and is being drafted, in my opinion, at his floor (WR16). The Rams are known for funneling their passing game through two elite receivers, but they have been unable to do so due to the health of both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Adams finished as the WR11Â in fantasy last season, despite sitting out three games to force a trade from the Raiders. Before that, the former Packer had missed just one game in his previous three seasons, suggesting he’ll be a significant upgrade on Kupp from an availability standpoint.
Adams is still an elite receiver who would be drafted higher if it weren’t for his age (32). He should be able to hit his ADP while lining up across from Nacua, but he would have weekly WR1-overall upside if his teammate missed time (Nacua missed six games in 2024).
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
Joe Mixon was a lot better than people seem to think last season. The Texans back missed time early in the year, before playing through an injury, and was still the RB8 in fantasy points per game (17.2, tied with Josh Jacobs).
However, from Weeks 1-15, before he played through his second injury of the year, Mixon was the RB2 in fantasy points per game (20.2), behind only Saquon Barkley. Promoting Mixon’s fantasy floor when healthy feels a little risky, given that he is currently not practicing, but that upside is something I’m keen to get in on at cost.
MIXON. 45-YARD TD.
📺: #HOUvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Z3C33tMXWN— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024
Nick Chubb would be the feel-good story of the year if he were to get back to anywhere near his best this year, but he showed little sign of that last season. Woody Marks is another player to look out for, given his pass-catching prowess, but Mixon should continue to dominate touches in this offense.
The Houston back should have no problems bettering his ADP; if he can stay healthy, he has the potential to obliterate it.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots
As the RB23 in ADP, TreVeyon Henderson doesn’t need to be a starting running back for you in fantasy this year, but his skill set makes him a potential RB1 in PPR leagues. Rhamondre Stevenson could steal some goal-line touches, particularly early on, but Henderson was drafted for a purpose.
One of the most explosive pass-catching backs in college football last season, Henderson should dominate receiving work early in New England’s backfield. Factor in that Stevenson’s rushing efficiency has declined in two straight years, and the former Ohio State standout could easily be a three-down back before long.
Henderson is a potential touchdown on every play, with elite speed and great hands, meaning he shouldn’t need a huge workload to be fantasy relevant. However, if he does get the workload, which is a good bet, he could be a PPR monster in 2025.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
I’m buying the dip on Mark Andrews. One of my strengths in fantasy, in my opinion, is that I do a decent job of not getting sucked into the overreactions surrounding certain players. Whether age, rookie competition, or a high-profile end zone drop in the playoffs, trusted players typically remain trusted by their teams.
And there aren’t many players who are more trusted within their organization than Andrews. The seven-year veteran has been a pillar of Baltimore’s offense for years and Lamar Jackson’s most trusted target.
Andrews’s ADP this year also doesn’t make sense. The veteran is being drafted one spot lower than his TE6 finish from 2024, despite overcoming a horrendously slow start last season. Andrews was coming back from a fractured tibia he suffered the previous November, and it took several weeks to show up in 2024.
Andrews went on to tally 11 touchdowns over his final 12 games and was the TE4 in fantasy points per game over the last seven games. His 14.8Â fantasy points per game over that seven-game spell matched Garrett Wilson’s output over the whole season, which would be a phenomenal return in the seventh round.
Brashard Smith, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Brashard Smith has been getting some hype in Chiefs camp this offseason, but my targeting him has as much to do with his competition as it does with his ability. The former wide receiver was taken in the seventh round of April’s draft, but had spent only one year as a running back in college.
Smith’s receiving background makes him a great prospect in Andy Reid’s offense, and the path to opportunities may be far more straightforward than many seem to believe. Isiah Pacheco, also a Chiefs’ former seventh-round selection, was predictably inefficient after returning from a fractured fibula in November and was back up to Kareem Hunt for the rest of the year.
There is a very real chance that Pacheco’s hard-running style is affected long-term, and he never gets back to his pre-injury best. If Pacheco does struggle, Smith would arguably be the preferred choice in Kansas City. Hunt is an insurance policy at this late stage of his career, while Elijah Mitchell has consistently struggled with injuries.
If Smith can work his way onto the field, he could be a great PPR asset with weekly RB1 upside on a potent Chiefs offense. If he doesn’t, he’s a guilt-free drop as a last-round pick.
Xavier Restrepo, WR, Tennessee Titans
Xavier Restrepo surprisingly went undrafted in April, despite being a consensus All-American in his final year in college with 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air. That production, at a top school, would ordinarily see a player’s name called during the draft. Still, Restrepo was knocked for a slow 40-yard dash (4.83 seconds – unofficial).
The receiver has since stated that he was dealing with a tight hamstring, which makes sense given his obvious on-field speed at Miami. The Titans added several receivers this offseason, including veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson and rookies Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor.
Restrepo was higher than both rookies on my board pre-draft, though, and Titans quarterback Cam Ward also rates the electric receiver. During his phone call with the Titans, Restrepo was told that Ward had been calling them and campaigning for the team to draft him as early as the fourth round.
Their connection in Miami was obvious, and Restrepo is my pick to step up and become a top target in Nashville this coming season. Though unlikely to prove a league-winner, I’m excited to add Restrepo as a potential WR3/flex play in PPR, with no risk attached.
