The Las Vegas Raiders had big plans for the 2025 offseason. New leadership brought fresh energy, a veteran quarterback trade added experience, and defensive upgrades plugged key gaps.
However, one decision has NFL analysts scratching their heads: using the sixth overall pick on running back Ashton Jeanty.
Why Did NFL Analysts Question the Raiders’ Ashton Jeanty Pick?
Seth Walder of ESPN gave the Raiders a “B” grade for their offseason work, but didn’t hold back on the Jeanty selection. Despite praising the running back’s talent and excitement factor, he raised his concerns.
“Jeanty is a thrilling player, don’t get me wrong. But it’s bad to take a running back that early, considering he’ll only provide surplus value if he is elite, because his contract is already expensive compared to the position.”
Chuckin’ up the Deuces ✌️@AshtonJeanty2 is a Raider 🏴☠️
📺 #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/K5URgD3nmy
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) April 25, 2025
Walder’s issue wasn’t with Jeanty’s ability. The concern runs deeper than that. In today’s NFL, where positional value and salary cap management drive every decision, running backs have taken a backseat to edge rushers, offensive tackles, and wide receivers when it comes to draft value.
As Walder remarked bluntly: “The opportunity cost of taking a player at a premium position (it’s much harder to find an elite tackle, wide receiver or edge rusher in free agency) is so high.”
What Makes This Pick So Risky for Las Vegas?
Walder’s criticism comes down to basic economics. When the Raiders selected a running back sixth overall, they didn’t just pick a player, but also possibly passed on positions that could have a bigger long-term impact while locking themselves into a contract structure that only pays off if Jeanty becomes truly special.
This thinking isn’t new. Walder pointed to a framework that Bill Barnwell made famous, referencing his 2023 article on positional value as required reading for understanding these decisions.
Nonetheless, the Jeanty pick wasn’t the only move that caught Walder’s attention. He found plenty to like in the Raiders’ other offseason moves, praising the trade for veteran quarterback Geno Smith, calling it smart business. Sure, Smith is 34 and had a down year statistically, but Las Vegas only gave up a third-round pick for him. Plus, his contract structure gives the team flexibility down the road.
The Raiders also earned credit for bringing back key defenders Adam Butler and Malcolm Koonce. Butler especially impressed with his efficiency, ranking “sixth and 16th in run stop win rate and pass rush win rate at defensive tackle”
Not every move got praise, though. Walder took issue with the signing of guard Alex Cappa, noting that he “ranked last among 64 guards in pass block win rate last season”. Still, that concern paled in comparison to the questions surrounding the Jeanty pick.
While Walder’s evaluation highlights the risk that comes with investing premium draft capital in a position where the league’s value has been dropping for years, the Raiders’ front office clearly believes Jeanty will prove the doubters wrong.
MORE: Ashton Jeanty Hype: Why PFSN Trade Analyzer Users Are Excited About the Raiders Rookie RB
