In most seasons, the overall RB1 is someone we’d expect. It may not be the preseason RB1. In fact, it rarely is. It’s almost always someone taken inside the top five, though. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get an overall RB1 season from someone unexpected, like 2015 Devonta Freeman. Additionally, even if these guys aren’t strong candidates to finish as overall RB1, they could still be top five, which would make them great values in fantasy football.
9 Dark Horse Candidates To Finish as Fantasy Football’s Overall RB1 in 2025
I’ll be honest. I wanted this list to be 10. Unfortunately, I could not, in good conscience, force 10 names onto here. So, we have nine. Here we go.
1) Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
Okay. You’re right. Ashton Jeanty isn’t exactly a dark horse. But he is a rookie, and we’ve never seen a rookie finish as the overall RB1. If anyone can do it, though, it’s Jeanty. All it would take is for him to live up to expectations and the established guys to falter…just a bit.
We’ve seen plenty of rookies post elite RB1 seasons. Since 2000, every single overall RB1 season has been above 20.0 fantasy points per game, except for Brian Westbrook in 2008 (19.3 ppg). In the past decade, the lowest overall RB1 performance was 2015 Devonta Freeman at 21.1 ppg.
Since 2000, we’ve seen nine rookie running backs average 18+ ppg (six hit 19+ ppg, three at 20+). The best rookie was Saquon Barkley in 2018, who averaged 24.1 points per game, which would be enough for overall RB1 honors most seasons. Unfortunately for him, Todd Gurley went nuclear that year, averaging 26.6.
Jeanty walks into a Las Vegas Raiders offense that should be much improved with Geno Smith at quarterback and Pete Carroll as head coach. The Boise State RB has absolutely no competition for touches, with his primary backup being a 33-year-old Raheem Mostert.
Jeanty is poised to be one of a select few true three-down backs who only leaves the field when he’s tired. Thus, as sports reporter Nick Walters puts it, “Ashton Jeanty has a chance to lead the NFL in total yards as a rookie if Pete Carroll’s #Raiders target their new star RB as a true 3-down back.
Ashton Jeanty has a chance to lead the NFL in total yards as a rookie if Pete Carroll’s #Raiders target their new star RB as a true 3-down back 👀
At Boise, Jeanty went 43/569/5 through the air in 2023 but just 23/138/1 in 2024 as the team helped him break Barry Sanders’… pic.twitter.com/J13oqZh9lo
— Nick Walters (@nickwalt) June 2, 2025
If Jeanty truly is a generational talent, the potential is certainly there for him to make history in 2025. Of course, it will cost fantasy managers a first-round pick to find out, so maybe he’s not that much of a dark horse.
2) De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane averaged 17.3 points per game as a rookie and 17.6 as a sophomore. On the surface, he looks like he’s remarkably consistent, but those two seasons could not have been more different.
We’ve seen two versions of Achane. As a rookie, he was a low-volume, high-efficiency splash-play specialist. As a sophomore, he was still efficient, but nowhere near the levels of his rookie year, having to rely much more on raw volume.
Most importantly, all it would take for Achane to have a real shot is a full season of Tua Tagovailoa.
Last year, Achane averaged 22.5 ppg in 11 games with Tua, yet just 8.6 without him. That is easily the most glaring split of any running back.
If we get a full season of Tagovailoa combined with Achane marrying his 2024 volume with more of his 2023 efficiency, we’re talking Christian McCaffrey levels of upside.
3) Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving exceeded all expectations as a third-round rookie. He averaged 14.4 ppg, finishing as the overall RB19. That was an incredible return on investment for a glorified handcuff pick in fantasy drafts.
However, Irving wasn’t really the RB19. He was unstartable for the first five weeks of the season, playing well behind Rachaad White. Eventually, though, head coach Todd Bowles figured out that Irving was by far the superior runner. That, combined with White’s untimely fumbles and Irving’s improved play, led to the eventual rookie takeover.
Bucky Irving 10+ yard runs
Arguably the shiftiest back in the league as a rookie 🦆 pic.twitter.com/GfAeL6Q1c5
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) May 14, 2025
From Weeks 6-18, Irving averaged 16.9 ppg. And if we further isolate his stats to post the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye, we get 18.3. Now let’s remove his 2.8 points from Week 14 when he left with an injury after only a handful of snaps, and we get a 20.9 per-game average.
The Bucs have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines, and Irving is now entrenched as the clear starter. They have a subpar defense in a division conducive to shootouts. Even if he doesn’t finish as the overall RB1, fantasy managers should not be shocked if he gets close.
4) Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Similar to Irving, the Cincinnati Bengals did not fully believe in Chase Brown until later in the season. Zack Moss opened as the starter and 1A in the committee, while Brown played no more than 33% of the snaps in each of his first three games.
It wasn’t until Week 4 that Brown started to make himself undeniable, posting 23.2 and 16.4 fantasy points in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively, despite playing 40% of the snaps in both contests. But the real ascent came after Moss went down for the season.
For the season, Brown averaged 15.9 ppg, finishing as the overall RB14. Those are great numbers, and had it been just him, he would’ve been one of the best values in fantasy.
Brown, however, played eight games with Moss healthy. In those games, he averaged 11.3 points per game, whereas in eight games without Moss on the field, Brown was an elite RB1, averaging 20.9.
The Bengals did very little to supplement their RB room behind their workhorse. They brought back Samaje Perine and spent a sixth-round pick on Tahj Brooks. Brown may not see games with a 100% opportunity share again, but over the course of a full season, he is certainly capable of hitting 22+ ppg, which gives him a shot at overall RB1 status.
5) Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Again, it probably won’t happen for Josh Jacobs, but let’s not pretend it’s totally impossible for the Green Bay Packers’ lead back to finish as the overall RB1. He already almost did it for a stretch last season.
Jacobs averaged 17.2 ppg on the season, finishing as the overall RB8. But he had incredibly poor touchdown luck for the first half of the year, scoring just once in the first six weeks and a total of four times in the first nine.
Then, from Week 11 onward, Jacobs scored in every game. Specifically from Weeks 7-16, Jacobs averaged 22.1 points per game. There’s a world where that, over a full season, is good for overall RB1 status.
The Packers did not add anyone to their backfield, opting to run it back with MarShawn Lloyd, Emanuel Wilson, and Chris Brooks. Jacobs is set to see heavy volume once again in an offense that loves to run.
6) Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
At this point, we’re getting into the territory of players who technically have a shot, but it’s very unlikely. Ironically, Jonathan Taylor has already done it once, posting overall RB1 numbers in 2021. But it took the exact type of things breaking right that we discussed previously.
Taylor’s 21.1 ppg made him the lowest scoring overall RB1 since Devonta Freeman, matching his average from 2015. And the way Taylor got there was exactly the same.
In 2015, Freeman surprisingly became the Atlanta Falcons’ workhorse. His overall value was boosted by the fact that Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and Le’Veon Bell all suffered season-ending injuries within the first two months of the season.
Similarly, in 2021, McCaffrey only played seven games, and the never-injured Derrick Henry broke his foot halfway through the season. Henry was averaging 24.2 ppg, but didn’t quite play enough games to qualify.
Taylor’s path to doing it again would be similar. The RB position was remarkably healthy in 2024, but it’s unlikely to have the same fortune this year. If Taylor can stay healthy and have another 20-touchdown campaign like he did four years ago, there’s a path to him repeating as overall RB1.
7) Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
We don’t have to like it. All that matters is Sean McVay likes it and has shown an affinity for giving Kyren Williams the ball a lot.
The Los Angeles Rams may have drafted Blake Corum last year and Jarquez Hunter this year, but that’s just par for the course. LA drafts a running back every year. Neither is threatening Williams’ three-down back status.
In 2023, Williams averaged 21.3 ppg, making him the best value in all of fantasy that season (alongside teammate Puka Nacua). Last year, he took a minor step back, averaging 17.0 points per game.
But all it would take for Williams to threaten overall RB1 status is a repeat of what he did two years ago. It will admittedly be difficult, as the Rams do not throw to their running backs. Williams earned just an 8% target share last season, but if he can average around 4.5 yards per carry, handle 19 carries per game like he did in 2023, and push 20 touchdowns, the upside is there.
8) Breece Hall, New York Jets
The Breece Hall we saw last year has absolutely no shot at finishing as the overall RB1. But the Hall we saw during his rookie year and over the final month or so of the 2024 season absolutely can.
Hall’s struggles last season are hard to figure out. He wasn’t quite as efficient as we’ve come to expect from him, but he wasn’t downright bad. Hall also benefited from elite receiving volume, leading the NFL in routes run and earning a 13.8% target share. It’s what kept his fantasy value afloat.
Hall will admittedly have a hard time reaching the same receiving volume with Justin Fields under center. But perhaps he can make up for it with efficiency, as he benefits from Fields’ mobility in preventing defenses from swarming Hall as easily.
Over the final five weeks of the 2023 season, Hall posted games of 26.6, 2.8, 43.1, 27.6, and 29.0, respectively. Let’s ignore the outlier and focus on the ceiling. If Hall can get back to that version of himself, then overall RB1 is certainly in his range of outcomes.
9) Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
It won’t be easy for Alvin Kamara to finish as the overall RB1 on this New Orleans Saints team. This is a team firmly in a transitional season, and it’s Kellen Moore’s first year as head coach.
Plus, New Orleans unexpectedly lost Derek Carr to injury, and this team is not going to score many points. With that said, it could lead to a ton of volume for Kamara. Even though he’s 30 years old, he loves the game and still wants to play.
Meanwhile, the Saints don’t exactly have much in the way of RB depth, with only Kendre Miller and rookie sixth-rounder Devin Neal behind him. Kamara has already finished as the overall RB1 in the past. He did it in 2020, averaging 25.2 ppg. He also scored 21 touchdowns, including his now-famous six-touchdown game in Week 16.
Alvin Kamara going off for 6 Touchdowns in 1 game. Disgusting https://t.co/03uH8L8dX6 pic.twitter.com/TYp1VSyhIp
— Boot Krewe Media (@BootKreweMedia) February 2, 2023
It wouldn’t take quite that level of proficiency for an overall RB1 finish this year, but Kamara would need a ton of volume, particularly in the receiving game.
Last year, he led all running backs with a 21.5% target share, and there’s no reason to think that will change. He’s been top three in RB target share every year of his career.
If Kamara simply repeats last season with a bit more TD luck, it would only take about five more scores to get him to a ppg average that can contend for overall RB1 honors.