The San Francisco 49ers are outside the NFC playoff picture. That’s a stunning reality for a team that entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations.
At this point, every game is a must-win for the Niners. But what else needs to happen in Week 15 for San Fran’s playoff chances to improve?
Let’s look at some of the key scenarios in play.
San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
Thursday Game Update
- Rams (8-6) def. 49ers (6-8)
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, after the loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers now have just a 7.4% chance to make the playoffs. Their best chance would be to get the Wild Card (3.7%). The defeat saw their chances drop 7.7%.
Read below to see the playoff scenarios for the 49ers entering Week 15. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
49ers’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 15
Entering Week 15, the 49ers had a 15.1% of making the playoffs, according to the Pro Football Network NFL Playoff Predictor. San Francisco also had a 7.0% chance of winning the NFC West, a <0.1% chance of claiming the top seed, and a <0.1% of winning the Super Bowl. The 49ers also had a 6.8% chance of earning the No. 7 seed, their best odds for any Wild Card spot.
Ahead of Thursday night’s game against the Rams, the 49ers were 11th in the NFC and fourth in the NFC West. They also have the sixth-hardest remaining schedule.
49ers Rooting Guide for Week 15
San Fran’s best chances to make the playoffs are either as the final Wild Card team (No. 7 seed) or as the NFC West champions (automatic top-four seed). Those spots are currently occupied by the Washington Commanders and Seattle Seahawks, respectively.
As such, beating the Rams on Thursday is non-negotiable. San Francisco lost the first meeting between the two teams, so it must win the rematch to prevent losing a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Meanwhile, there are four other matchups for fans to monitor.
- Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots
- Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
- Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
- Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders
The Niners lost to the Cardinals earlier in the season but will get a chance to exact revenge in the season finale. At this juncture, however, San Francisco trails Arizona by one spot in the standings, so a Cardinals loss would help.
The 49ers and Seahawks split their season series, and Seattle has a two-game lead in the divisional-record tiebreaker with just one NFC West game remaining. So, the 49ers probably will need to finish with a better record than the Seahawks to finish ahead of them in the standings.
San Fran and Washington don’t play each other this season, and the Commanders currently have a two-game lead for the No. 7 seed. Consequently, this probably would come down to the conference-record tiebreaker, in which Washington currently has a one-game lead. Falling to the Saints, though, would put another loss on the Commanders’ in-conference record.
The Falcons-Raiders game is simple. Atlanta and San Francisco have the same record but don’t play each other this season, so the 49ers need the Falcons to lose as many games as possible.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Preview
From Pro Football Network’s Jason Katz:
Can Anyone Stop Puka Nacua?
What the sophomore wide receiver is doing is nothing short of incredible.
Although he’s only played in eight games, Puka Nacua leads the league with a 37.1% targets-per-route-run rate and 3.5 yards per route run.
Nacua has four 100-yard receiving games this season (tied with six other receivers). Only Terry McLaurin (5) has more. Nacua missed five games, however, and got ejected early in a sixth.
The 49ers run zone coverage 70% of the time. Against Cover 2, Nacua only averages 1.13 yards per route run. Against Cover 1, he averages 4.19 yards per route run, fourth in the NFL.
Will the 49ers Call More Play-Action Passes This Week?
The 49ers are not a heavy play-action team. This season, they’ve only attempted 79 passes utilizing play-action. Only the Patriots, Falcons, and Chicago Bears have attempted fewer. But play-action has been very effective against the Rams this season.
Los Angeles has allowed 9.4 yards per attempt on play-action passes, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. That’s compared to 7.5 yards per attempt on non-play-action passes. Although, to be fair, that number ranks second-worst in the league as well.
In Week 3, when these teams first met, Brock Purdy dropped back to pass nine times using play-action. He attempted a pass on eight of those dropbacks and completed six of them for 127 yards and a touchdown. It represented the highest number of passing yards accumulated via play-action that week.
The 49ers’ 127 passing yards off play-action in Week 3 marked their highest single-week total until Week 14, when Purdy threw for a total of 171 yards utilizing play-action.
Can the 49ers Running Game Survive Yet Another Injury?
The 49ers opened training camp with a running back room consisting of Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, and Isaac Guerendo. All four of them are now injured, although Guerendo is expected to play.
Nevertheless, veteran Patrick Taylor Jr. could see increased work on Thursday night. Taylor spent the first three years of his career with the Green Bay Packers, never carrying the ball more than 32 times in a season.
Taylor’s career rush success rate is 49.4%. He has six career rushes of 10+ yards, a 7.5% rate.
Can the 49ers Get to Matthew Stafford Without Nick Bosa?
Unsurprisingly, San Francisco’s pass rush is better when Nick Bosa is on the field. In games where Bosa plays, the 49ers get pressure on the opposing quarterback on 36.4% of dropbacks. Without him, that drops to 28.6%.
Likewise, with Bosa, the 49ers average 5.4 QB hits per game compared to 3.67 on average without him.
Pressuring Matthew Stafford is paramount. He’s completing 73.6% of his passes and averaging 8.2 yards per attempt while not pressured against 47.9% and 5.5 yards per attempt when pressured.
In Week 3, Stafford completed 12 of 15 unpressured throws for 180 yards and a touchdown. Yet, he was 4 of 10 for 41 yards when under duress.