The San Francisco 49ers have endured injuries and inconsistency in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions and still managed to clinch a playoff berth heading into Week 17. While their chances of winning the NFC West or securing the conference’s top seed remain slim, San Francisco is still mathematically alive on both fronts.
What Are The 49ers’ NFC West Chances?
In nearly any other NFC division, the 49ers would be in firm control of the title race. Instead, the NFC West has emerged as one of the league’s deepest and most competitive divisions, leaving San Francisco in a precarious position despite a strong record.
According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, after their win in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears, the 49ers have a 46.70% chance to win the NFC West and earn the No. 1 seed.
San Francisco sits at 12–4, just one game behind the Seattle Seahawks, who they will face in Week 18. The path to the NFC West title is straightforward but demanding for the 49ers, and they must win next week to secure the top seed and the division title.
CLUTCH
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— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 29, 2025
If the 49ers defeat the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks, they would finish 13–4. Even if Seattle and Los Angeles also reach that mark, San Francisco would win the division on tiebreakers.
- Head-to-head: The 49ers would be 1-1 against the Seahawks and the Rams
- Division record: San Francisco would hold a 5–1 mark, compared to 4–2 for the Rams and 3–3 for Seattle, giving the 49ers the edge
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The path to the No. 1 seed requires similar results within the division. The 49ers’ victory over Chicago also eliminated the Bears from finishing ahead of San Francisco, as Chicago at best can get to 12 wins.
Even if those scenarios don’t materialize, the 49ers remain well-positioned to secure a Wild Card berth, and if the playoffs started today, they would be playing the Carolina Panthers.
San Francisco enters Week 18 on a six-game winning streak, wth the first five victories coming against non-playoff teams, but the recent win over the Bears was massive for them.
According to PFSN’s Strength of Schedule, coming into Week 17, the 49ers faced the toughest remaining slate in the NFL, with back-to-back games against the Bears and Seahawks.
There are also health concerns. George Kittle did not play in Week 17, and Brock Purdy’s performance have historically dipped significantly without him.
- Passer rating when targeting Kittle: 154.9
- Passer rating without targeting Kittle: 89.9
Yet, the 49ers quarterback was able to put up over 40 points against the Bears and led them to a win. Purdy is clearly at his best when his full supporting cast is available, and Kittle is expected to play next week against the Seahawks.
