After Mac Jones kept the San Francisco 49ers competitive during Brock Purdy’s absence, the franchise quarterback has returned and led the team to five straight wins over the past month. The surge has pushed San Francisco to an 11-4 record after Week 16.
The 49ers reached the playoffs after the Detroit Lions’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. However, their chances of winning the division are slim. After their win over the Indianapolis Colts, here’s a look at San Francisco’s postseason scenarios and what needs to happen in Week 16.
What Are the 49ers’ Playoff Chances?
If the 49ers played in nearly any other division, they would be in control of the race. Instead, the NFC West has emerged as one of the league’s toughest, leaving San Francisco in a tricky spot despite a strong record.
The NFC playoff picture is among the most crowded in recent years, with six of the seven teams currently in postseason position still in contention for the conference’s No. 1 seed.
While the 49ers’ outlook for the top seed remains slim, PFSN’s Playoff Predictor still gives them a 22.7% chance after Week 16. Their current chances of winning the division are at 27.50%.
BRR IT’S COLD IN HERE ❄️
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NFL+// https://t.co/Zkva0Y3QRR pic.twitter.com/2Sj6D2mo36— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 23, 2025
If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would have faced the Carolina Panthers in the Wild Card round. Although they are without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, the 49ers will be well-positioned to make noise in the postseason.
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With a playoff berth secured, the focus shifts to chasing the NFC West crown and keeping faint hopes of the No. 1 seed alive. The clearest path to the division title requires the 49ers to win out and for the Seattle Seahawks to drop at least one game. Failing that, San Francisco is well-positioned to secure a Wild Card spot as long as it continues to win.
San Francisco is riding a five-game winning streak, though those victories have come against non-playoff teams. According to PFSN’s NFL Strength of Schedule, the 49ers face the toughest remaining slate in the league, with games against the Bears and Seahawks in the final two weeks. That said, both the Rams and Seahawks also have challenging finishes, leaving the door open for late-season movement.
While a postseason trip is guaranteed, the 49ers’ odds of taking the top seed increased after the Seahawks’ win this past week. But they need to win out to stay alive, and that includes beating Seattle in Week 18.
