The NFL is the king of parity, especially with the expanded playoff field. Every season, there are at least a couple of surprise teams that make the playoffs, as well as a handful of teams that disappoint. In 2022, seven of the 12 playoff teams didn’t make the postseason in the year prior, and seven playoff teams from 2021 failed to qualify this past season.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds for each team to make/miss the NFL playoffs this upcoming season, as well as best bets from PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting Director Brian Blewis, and Betting & Fantasy Analysts Jason Katz and Kyle Soppe.
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NFL Playoff Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook
|Team||To Make the Playoffs||To Miss the Playoffs|
|Green Bay Packers||+180||-210|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-450||+360|
|Los Angeles Chargers||-125||+105|
|Los Angeles Rams||+310||-380|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+380||-475|
|New England Patriots||+250||-300|
|New Orleans Saints||-190||+160|
|New York Giants||+160||-190|
|New York Jets||-130||+110|
|San Francisco 49ers||-450||+360|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+400||-500|
NFL Playoff Predictions
Blewis: Which teams are you guys betting on to make or miss the playoffs this season? And I’m not talking about the obvious teams like the Kansas City Chiefs to make it or the Arizona Cardinals to miss it.
Think more so about the fringe teams that don’t have a major difference in their yes/no odds — teams that are projected to be on the playoff bubble, like the Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Miami Dolphins, just to name a few.
Wingo: The only constant in the NFL is change. For the last seven seasons in a row, at least five teams made the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, and in the last three, seven teams got in that didn’t make it previously.
So which teams may surprise us in 2023? Let’s start with the Falcons. The NFC South is kind of a hot mess with no real dominant team, so all things are possible.
I have no idea what Ridder can be as a QB, but I do like what the Falcons have done with giving him a lot of weapons. The drafting of RB Bijan Robinson continues a pattern of selecting offensive marvels for Atlanta, beginning with TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London.
Add in the versatile Cordarrelle Patterson, and Ridder has a ton of options at his disposal. Whatever Ridder might become should be on display in 2023, and it might just be a playoff appearance for the Falcons. The Falcons +105 to make the playoffs.
Katz: The only make/miss playoff bet I’ve locked in is the Jets to miss the playoffs at +110. But there are a couple of others that have caught my eye. The Falcons at their odds is definitely interesting.
They went 7-10 with awful quarterback play but were only 5-8 in one-score games. Even if this team doesn’t improve at all, it would only take a little bit of good fortune for them to get to nine wins, which could be enough in a weak NFC South.
Desmond Ridder should be at least a marginal upgrade on Marcus Mariota. Add in Bijan Robinson and another year of progression for Drake London and Kyle Pitts, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Falcons won 10 games and snuck into the postseason.
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Blewis: This Seahawks team is too talented on paper to not make it in a very top-heavy NFC, in my opinion.
The Seahawks have a lot of continuity going into 2023, with some notable additions as well. First-round picks CB Devon Witherspoon and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba should each make an immediate impact in two already strong position groups.
Adding JSN to a receiving corps featuring DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett might give the Seahawks the most talented trio in the league. With these weapons at wide receiver and entering his third season in OC Shane Waldron’s offense, I have enough confidence in Geno Smith maintaining his play from last season. Seahawks -120 to make the playoffs.
Bearman: Not to turn this into an NFC South betting preview, but there is a reason we are all grabbing a subpar team from this division to make the playoffs. The division stinks, and someone has to win.
While Jason and Trey went with Atlanta, I am going to go with the division-favorite Saints. In my win total write-up, I hit on the soft schedule for why the Saints could go over 9.5. Listen, this can be said for any of the teams in this division. So why the Saints?
Simple: They have the best veteran QB, and it’s not close. Derek Carr brings his 142 starts and 217 career passing TDs to a Saints team that already has multiple playmakers in Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave.
If you assume the other starters are Ridder, Bryce Young, and Baker Mayfield (really), that’s a total of 73 starts and 102 TDs, 99% of which belongs to Mayfield. By the way, Mayfield may lose his job to Kyle Trask, who has as many starts and TDs as Young (0).
As for that soft schedule, the Saints get it early, with matchups against six teams that did not make the playoffs in 2022 to begin the season. This will help mitigate the loss of Kamara for the first three games.
In fact, in the Saints’ first nine games, the only 2022 playoff team they face is the Jags, who had to win five straight to get to 9-8 and in the postseason last year. Give me the Saints at -190 to make the playoffs, or take the better odds of +120 to win the division.
Soppe: The Chargers at -125 to make the playoffs has me sucked in. Yes, I realize that they play in a division with the Chiefs, and that makes the path a little more difficult, but the listed price is more than fair.
With Kellen Moore in charge of this offense, I expect more explosive plays, and you know what that does? Draws attention away from the leaky run defense because opponents aren’t interested in pounding the rock.
That, combined with a light end-of-season schedule that could see them finish strong (not to mention a Week 18 game with the Chiefs that might not matter to the reigning champs), and I think we are looking at double-digit wins.
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NFL Playoff Sleepers and Longshots
Blewis: The 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars were a prime example of a longshot team making the postseason, with +450 odds to make the playoffs going into last season.
On the contrary, the Los Angeles Rams, a projected playoff contender after winning the Super Bowl, surprisingly went 5-12 and came up well short of making the postseason. What are your guys’ favorite longshot bets to make or miss the playoffs this season?
Wingo: The Titans’ losing record last season ended a three-year postseason run for Mike Vrabel and Co. In Vrabel’s five seasons in Tennessee, he’s only missed the playoffs twice. Outside of Jacksonville, the rest of the division is very much a question mark. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins should re-energize the QB play of Ryan Tannehill.
As long as Derrick Henry can keep being a hammer on the ground, the Titans could have balance on offense. The defense will keep them in some games, and don’t be surprised if Vrabel finds himself where he usually does … game-planning for a postseason contest. Tennessee Titans +210 to make the playoffs.
Katz: You just mentioned the Rams as the longshot playoff absentee in 2022. Well, that’s where I’m going for my longshot to get back in this season. The Rams are still just two years removed from winning the Super Bowl.
Last year, Matthew Stafford was hurt entering the season, and there was likely a bit of a Super Bowl hangover. Stafford is now healthy, as is Cooper Kupp. This team is relying heavily on those two guys, but again, the NFC is not a strong conference. Rams +310 to make the playoffs is mighty enticing.
Bearman: The NFL is the definition of “what have you done for me lately,” and you don’t have to go any further than the Los Angeles Rams for Exhibit A. Eighteen months ago, the Rams were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and were a popular pick to go back to the big game before getting blown out at home in the NFL opener by the Bills.
One injury-riddled 5-12 season later, and everyone forgets them. Fully healthy, this team still has the best defender in football in Aaron Donald, arguably the best WR in football in Kupp, and a solid, veteran QB in Stafford. We aren’t talking even money here. We are talking +310 odds for them to finish in the top seven of a weak NFC. That’s good value.
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Blewis: I took their over for our win total picks, and I’m betting on them yet again. Who has ever been burned betting on the Denver Broncos before? Although they play in the toughest division in football and in a very crowded AFC conference, I’m expecting them to snap their seven-year playoff drought in 2023.
Sean Payton replacing Nathaniel Hackett might be the biggest upgrade any team made at any position this offseason, including the Jets going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers.
This is a very talented team that was so poorly coached and had everything go wrong for them last season. Unless Russell Wilson is somehow worse, or they continue to have awful injury luck, I am betting on a much improved Broncos team. Denver Broncos +186 to make the playoffs.
Soppe: If you’re looking for a little more of a payout, I don’t think the Packers at +180 to make the playoffs is crazy. The defense is talented enough, so if Jordan Love can build on an encouraging preseason, why can’t this team make its way to nine wins in a weak NFC?
The Vikings and Lions are picked ahead of them, and they should be, but the gap isn’t huge, and the Packers are a team with upside. We know what Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins are going to offer. If Love can match them, the combination of defensive talent and offensive stability gives this team a shot to take the division.