The NFL will announce its year-end awards at the NFL Honors ceremony on Thursday night. While some award winners will be cut and dry, other categories have multiple players worthy of consideration. Here are our predictions for the 2023 NFL Honors, including MVP, Coach of the Year, the best rookies in each conference, and more.
Predictions for 2023 NFL Honors and Awards
MVP Award
Finalists: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes
At various points this season, it felt like any of the four quarterback finalists could have laid claim to the MVP award. Allen was dominant early in the year before a string of multi-interception games tanked his candidacy. Burrow was elite down the stretch but poor in the early portion of the campaign. And Hurts might have been a genuine contender had a shoulder injury not forced him to miss two games at the end of the season.
Mahomes, meanwhile, has been the NFL’s best quarterback throughout the entire season, and the MVP is a quarterback award. Fourteen of the past 15 MVPs have been signal-callers, so Jefferson doesn’t really stand a chance.
While Mahomes didn’t quite match his career-best 2018 campaign in 2022, he did more than enough to earn the MVP. From a volume standpoint, he passed for an NFL-best 5,250 yards, 500+ more than second-place Justin Herbert. No QB threw more touchdowns than Mahomes (41) or posted a higher TD rate (6.3%).
Mahomes ranked first in QBR (77.6) and second in adjusted net yards per attempt (7.51). He managed 272 first downs through the air (45 more than any other QB) and finished with a league-best .306 expected points added per play.
And did we mention Mahomes did all this without Tyreek Hill, whom the Chiefs traded before the season? Mahomes still had Travis Kelce to throw to, but he maintained a Kansas City offense that ranked first in points and yards without his former WR1.
Mahomes will likely win the 2022 MVP award, and he should be considered the preseason favorite each year going forward.
Prediction: Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Player of the Year Award
Finalists: Tyreek Hill, Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes
Quarterbacks are no strangers to the Offensive Player of the Year award. In recent years, Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton won OPOY in the same season they claimed MVP. Drew Brees won the award twice as a consolation prize for not winning MVP, which could open up a path for Hurts.
But this year’s award will likely come down to Jefferson and Hill, two receivers who posted historic campaigns in 2022.
MORE: PFN’s 2022-23 NFL All-Pro Team
Early on, it looked like Hill could grab OPOY after registering ridiculous results with the Dolphins. Hill opened up Miami’s offense, helped Tua Tagovailoa turn his career around, and at one point was on pace to break the NFL’s single-season receiving record.
But Jefferson was too spectacular during the second half of the season. During a three-game stretch from Weeks 14-16, he garnered an absurd 47 targets while managing a 35-479-2 line. All told, Jefferson led the NFL in receptions (128) and yards (1,809) while scoring eight times.
Awards should tell the story of the season, and Jefferson’s insane 4th-and-18 catch that eventually helped the Vikings take down the Bills was one of the highlights of the 2022 campaign. A single moment won’t win Jefferson the award, but his overall production will.
Prediction: Justin Jefferson
Defensive Player of the Year Award
Finalists: Nick Bosa, Chris Jones, Micah Parsons
While the MVP and OPOY awards are relatively cut and dry, the Defensive Player of the Year trophy is a little more up in the air. Any of the three finalists would make a worthy winner, and I expect the voting to be relatively close.
Still, while Jones and Parsons both finished with better pass-rush win rates than Bosa, the 49ers edge defender led the NFL in sacks (18.5) and quarterback hits (48). No other pass rusher finished within 12 hits of Bosa — Raiders DE Maxx Crosby was second with 35.
From a storyline perspective, San Francisco boasted the NFL’s best defense all season long. Jones and Parsons’ squads weren’t quite as effective, and while that’s hardly a knock on their individual performance, it will factor into DPOY voting.
Bosa was the best player on the league’s most impressive defense, and this could end up being his first of many Defensive Player of the Year awards.
Prediction: Nick Bosa
Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
Finalists: Brock Purdy, Kenneth Walker III, Garrett Wilson
Purdy was a revelation as a rookie seventh-round quarterback, but he only made five regular-season starts. That lack of track record — plus the fact that he benefited from playing in Kyle Shanahan’s offense — means he probably won’t win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Walker was a regular home-run threat, and his 1,050-yard, nine-touchdown season has him in the OROY conversation. However, he wasn’t very efficient. Walker finished just 41st out of 42 qualifying running backs in success rate, meaning he wasn’t regularly moving the chains. Voters might see past his end-of-year totals to see a running back that was relatively boom or bust.
Meanwhile, Wilson managed 83 receptions, 1,103 yards, and four touchdowns while dealing with subpar quarterback play. Catching passes from Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco isn’t the NFL’s easiest job, but Wilson made it work during his rookie campaign and should come away with OPOY.
Prediction: Garrett Wilson
Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Finalists: Sauce Gardner, Aidan Hutchinson, Tariq Woolen
With all due respect to Hutchinson and Woolen, the Defensive Rookie of the Year award is Gardner’s to lose. There’s an argument to be made that Gardner should have been a finalist to take home the Defensive Player of the Year trophy — that’s how special he was during his first NFL campaign.
While Woolen posted a league-leading six interceptions, Gardner allowed fewer yards per completion (9.8 vs. 12.3) and yards per target (5.3 vs. 6.3). Sauce also broke up a league-leading 20 passes.
Gardner earned first-team All-Pro at cornerback, and the voters for the All-Pro team are the same crop who decide the DROY award. Given his dominant season, Gardner could win the trophy unanimously.
Prediction: Sauce Gardner
Comeback Player of the Year Award
Finalists: Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Geno Smith
As well as Barkley played in 2022, I think the Comeback Player of the Year award will come down to McCaffrey and Smith.
McCaffrey was finally able to stay healthy for the first time in three seasons, and his midseason trade to the 49ers unlocked his abilities both as a runner and a receiver. Trading multiple draft picks for a running back was a dubious strategy for San Francisco. Nonetheless, CMC’s presence was critical after the 49ers lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and receiver Deebo Samuel down the stretch.
While McCaffrey was coming back from health-related absences, Smith was returning from obscurity. The former second-round pick hadn’t been a regular starter since 2014 and wasn’t viewed as anything more than a stopgap. Instead, Smith led the NFL in completion percentage and finished sixth in QBR while tossing 30 touchdowns.
Smith faded down the stretch while McCaffrey continued to post All-World numbers. NFL awards are often “what have you done for me lately?” propositions, so CMC is the likely winner based on his end-of-year production.
Prediction: Christian McCaffrey
Coach of the Year Award
Finalists: Brian Daboll, Sean McDermott, Doug Pederson, Kyle Shanahan, Nick Sirianni
While Shanahan and Sirianni should also garner legitimate votes for Coach of the Year, Daboll was the most impressive sideline leader this past season. No one expected the Giants to contend for the postseason, but New York made the playoffs and won a Wild Card game against the No. 3 seed Vikings.
Daboll and his staff overcame multiple roster deficiencies to get the most out of his club. The Giants played to Daniel Jones’ strengths, helping him reduce his turnovers while leaning into his abilities as a runner. Daboll made Saquon Barkley the focal point of New York’s offense but also got contributions from unheralded wideouts like Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Richie James.
Daboll should also be given credit for assembling an excellent staff. He turned over offensive play-calling duties to Mike Kafka (who is now generating head coaching interest) and gave the defensive reins to Don “Wink” Martindale (who could also become an HC this offseason).
No head coach got more out of less than Daboll, and that’s typically the measuring stick in Coach of the Year voting.
Prediction: Brian Daboll
