After a season in which records fell and the level of play hit an all-time high, the NFL odds on who will win the 2022 NFL MVP are continuously changing. Set to be announced at the NFL Honors on February 10, which players have the best odds to win the NFL MVP award?
Update 02/10/22: Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers officially won NFL’s Most Valuable Player at the 2022 NFL Honors ceremony.
Aaron Rodgers has the best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP award
The 2021 NFL MVP winner, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, is the odds-on favorite to repeat by winning the 2022 NFL MVP award. It’s understandable why as well.
Rodgers put together arguably his best season yet, navigating his team to a 13-4 record and a No. 1 seed in the playoffs despite significant injuries. Completing 68.9% of his passes, Rodgers threw for 4,115 yards with 37 passing touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He also led the NFL in QBR (69.2) and passer rating (111.9). As a team, the Packers went 5-0 against teams who made the playoffs. And from Week 11 on, when games mattered the most, Rodgers threw 20 touchdowns and no interceptions.
If Rodgers is announced as the 2022 NFL MVP award winner, he will take sole possession of second-most all-time, breaking a tie with Brett Favre, Jim Brown, and Johnny Unitas, all with three MVPs. Only Peyton Manning (5) has more MVP awards.
Rodgers is the prohibitive favorite to win the 2022 NFL MVP award with -400 odds. With quarterbacks having won the last eight years and 43.5 of the 64 total awards, Rodgers checks all the boxes. Just don’t ask Hub Arkush for his thoughts.
Tom Brady’s 2022 NFL MVP odds have boosted
The NFL MVP Award should be based on what a player did in the regular season. That’s it. Their play on the field dictates the candidacy. Leading the NFL in completions (485), attempts (719), yards (5,316), and touchdowns (43), Tom Brady 100% deserves to be in consideration for the 2022 NFL MVP.
He averaged 312.7 yards a game with a 67.5% completion percentage and tossed just 6 interceptions.
As I said, Brady put together a résumé deserving of consideration. The question comes down to whether or not the news of retirement will impact his voting. Will voters give it to Brady one final time in almost a symbolic way? His odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP award have risen to +500 since the announcement.
Also, when the 2021 NFL All-Pro Team was announced earlier in January, Brady (16) was the only QB besides Rodgers to receive any votes (34). Have the tables turned enough for Brady to win the 2022 NFL MVP? It might just happen.
Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes are out of the running
In my opinion, this is a two-person race between Rodgers and Brady, with Rodgers the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NFL MVP. With that said, they were not the only quarterbacks to have sensational seasons.
For one, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen continue to show they are the future of the league. Mahomes finished fourth in passing yards (4,839), fifth in QBR (62.2), and tied for fourth in TD passes (37).
Allen was honestly more impactful for his team, accounting for more than 80% of Buffalo’s total yards. He threw from 4,407 yards, rushed for 763, and scored 43 total touchdowns. Both are at +5000 in 2022 NFL MVP odds.
Then, there is Joe Burrow. Joey Brr. Joe Cool. Whatever you want to call him, it fits. One day, you’ll call him an NFL MVP, just not in 2022. However, he is in the upper end of the odds at +1000. I think Bengals fans can overlook him not winning the 2022 NFL MVP award if he brings the Lombardi back home with him from LA.
Which non-QBs have the best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP?
The MVP award is honestly the “best quarterback award.” We see positional players win Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year — not the MVP. Yet, if there was ever a case to be made, there are some guys this season who have thrown their hat in the ring.
For one, there is Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He just had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history for a receiver. He led the league in targets (191), receptions (145), yards (1,947), and touchdowns (16). Kupp became the fourth wide receiver ever to lead the NFL in receptions, yards, and targets, claiming the “Triple Crown.” He currently has +2000 odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP award.
Does a running back have a case for the MVP this year?
Jonathan Taylor also had an MVP-caliber season. He was the NFL’s best running back. Taylor rushed a league-high 332 times while leading in yards (1,811) and touchdowns (18). Taylor also hauled in 40 receptions on 51 targets for 360 yards and 2 more scores.
From Week 4 on, Taylor had over 100 yards a game in 10 of 14 contests and scored 19 total touchdowns from Weeks 4 through 15. While his 2022 NFL MVP award odds are lower at +1600, there is no denying Taylor’s impact.
Will he win the MVP? No. However, should Aaron Donald garner more consideration? A 1,000% yes. This is by no means to detract from T.J. Watt’s incredible season in 2021. After all, he tied the NFL single-season sack record of 22.5. Yet, what Donald does as a 3-technique defensive tackle is qualitatively absurd.
Despite facing a double-team at the highest rate in the NFL, Donald was No. 2 in pass rush win rate at 28%, trailing only Myles Garrett (28%) despite him being an edge rusher. Donald led Watt in pass-rush wins a staggering 94 to 53. He is the best football player on the planet and the most destructive defensive player since Lawrence Taylor. Odds are Donald will never win the NFL MVP Award, especially not in 2022, but never mistake him for not being deserving.
Listen to the PFN Betting Podcast
Listen to the PFN Betting Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Betting Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!