2022 MAC Championship Game Prediction, Pick, and Odds for Toledo vs. Ohio

The 2022 MAC Championship Game features high-octane offenses and one of the top Group of Five quarterbacks in Dequan Finn. But can he cover?

The 2022 MAC Championship game pits two high-octane offenses against one another. Except for the Ohio Bobcats, their star quarterback is out, and the battle between two of the Group of Five quarterbacks that was supposed to take place now just features Toledo’s Dequan Finn.

Toledo vs. Ohio Odds

  • Spread: Toledo (-3)
  • Moneyline: Toledo (-150), Ohio (+130)
  • Over/Under: 54.5 points

You would certainly have expected this line to be a bit higher in favor of Ohio if Kurtis Rourke were playing. But with him missing Ohio’s game last week and the announcement that he tore his ACL, the line shifted to the Rockets. And fairly so.

Finn is every bit of a top-notch Group of Five quarterback and one of the top signal-callers in the country. Can he stamp his terrific 2022 season with a MAC title to boot?

Finn has arguably the most favorable situation to do so among all the conference championship teams.

Prediction for Toledo vs. Ohio in the MAC Championship Game

Finn should have a field day against the Ohio secondary. The Bobcats rank dead last in the country by allowing over 440 yards through the air, per game.

Finn torches defenses with his dual-threat ability, but his downfield passing ability has also been on display in 2022. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns on deep passes, as Toledo’s offense lulls opponents to sleep and then hits massive shots deep downfield against them.

He also leads the Rockets in every major rushing category this year besides carries. Finn’s averaging over seven yards per designed rushing attempt and is dynamic in the open field. The Ohio defense will have to play their finest game to date in order to contend with Finn’s all-around ability.

On offense for Ohio, they’ve been paced by Rourke, but in his absence a week ago, they turned to CJ Harris. In his first full-time start, Harris completed fewer than 50% of his passes but was effective with his legs in a win against Ball State.

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He rushed for three touchdowns and averaged nearly 7.5 yards per touch, both with his arm and his legs. However, he’ll have to be much more apt at throwing the ball downfield because Toledo’s pass defense is a tough unit to crack.

Quinyon Mitchell’s four-interception game from earlier this season is indicative of just how tough this Toledo secondary is. As a team, they’ve combined for 11 interceptions this year. They’re allowing teams fewer than 6.5 yards per pass attempt and have shown the ability to not only take the ball away but score themselves.

Mitchell is the ultimate deciding factor in this game as much as Finn is on offense. The Rockets can cover ground — both on offense and defense — and cover the spread here against a depleted Bobcats team.

Toledo vs. Ohio Prediction: Toledo 28, Ohio 24

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