The NFL picks market is full of small sample sizes. Often, we see the majority of NFL bettors decide their picks against the spread based on what they saw the previous week. Seeing as how the NFL is riddled with small samples, it’s easy to fall prey to recency bias. So how can we distance ourselves from the pack and make smart wagers? By determining which teams might have gotten lucky by using regression to the mean in some statistical areas. I’ll attempt to pinpoint teams who are worth a play and those who are worth a fade in the sports betting market going forward. Using these analytical metrics, we can put together our 2019 Week 9 NFL picks against the spread.
Week 8 was a welcome break-even week for me. We won a ham sandwich, as the bookmakers like to say. Breaking even isn’t my goal at all, but it is far better than the abysmal performances I have put together the past several weeks.
You can read about all of our successes and failures in the Sheep Report. Let’s recap our losses before we move on to Week 9.
Week 8 NFL Picks Recap
New York Jets
The ghosts must have followed Sam Darnold to Jacksonville, as after a brilliant first drive, the Jaguars defense gave Darnold hell. I thought the spread was inflated due to their blow out loss against New England on Monday Night. Maybe it was, but it didn’t matter. The Jacksonville defensive line harassed Darnold all afternoon, which was the defining factor in this game. I don’t foresee myself placing American dollars on Adam Gase again any time soon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game was a tough one to lose. Tampa Bay out-gained the Titans in yards per play but was done in by untimely turnovers (surprise) and a blown call by the referees, which would have given them the lead with a little over three minutes to go. I’ll never make an excuse or blame the refs for my losses, but it was objectively the wrong call, which cost the Buccaneers a lead with three minutes to go in the game. We are going back to them this week, however. I’m a glutton for punishment.
Philadelphia Eagles/Buffalo Bills
I hopped on the low point of this total amidst wind concerns Sunday morning. I also expected the Bills defense to show up, but neither of those angles came to fruition. I deserve to lose for overreacting to a weather report on a game that garnered zero interest from myself. The wind is the only weather element that matters in football, and even then, it can be overrated.
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Week 9 NFL picks
I feel pretty good about this slate of games, which is never a good thing for sports bettors. That said, we have some angles we can attack and spots which provide value for us. Without further ado, let’s get to the picks!
Let’s see what value we can find for our 2019 Week 9 NFL picks against the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I feel like we bet on the Buccaneers every week. Well, we’re going right back to the well again this week. The yards per play model has Tampa Bay as two points better than Seattle on a neutral field. Adjust for home field and Seattle should be a short home favorite, yet they opened at (-6.5.) I didn’t grab that spread right away because I got greedy in hopes the spread would reach seven, but it never happened. (+5.5) isn’t the best line value, but it is still over a field goal of what this spread should be.
This Seattle defense isn’t good. They can’t cover (19th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA), can’t pressure the QB (27th adjusted sack rate), and can’t even defend the run well (20th adjusted line yards.) We know the Buccaneers can pass with anybody, but they may enjoy some success on the ground as well. That should help extend drives and keep Russell Wilson off the field.
The one redeeming quality the Seahawks have is Russell Wilson. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, their strength (#1 run defense by a wide margin) lends the Seahawks to put the ball in Wilson’s hands to make plays. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, we know Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer want to establish the run. I doubt they come out with an effective game plan which involves a pass-first approach. This small, subtle sub-optimal decision-making process is enough to keep any opposing QB in the game. Winston shouldn’t have issues moving the ball here, while the Seahawks will dig themselves an early hole by running into the strength of the Buccaneers.
NFL Pick: TB +5.5 (-110) 0.7U
TB ML +200 0.3U
Indianapolis Colts
You won’t find many metrics that support the Colts this weekend. The yards per play model says Pittsburgh should be a (-3.5) favorite on a neutral field, which would make them around a (-6) point favorite after home-field advantage. The trench matchups are mostly a wash, although both teams could have some pressures despite facing excellent offensive lines.
One metric where the Colts do have an advantage in is early down success rate (EDSR). According to Sharp Football Stats, the Colts rank 12th in EDSR while the Steelers are 21st. Indianapolis ranks 9th in early-down rushing success rate, while Pittsburgh is a middling 17th on defense. Marlon Mack should see opportunities to have success running the ball on first and second down.
Pittsburgh is a very underrated squad. If not for their record, we would be talking about their defense in the same ilk as the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots. They have forced the second-most turnovers in the league and rank 2nd in turnover differential. I’m just putting my chips behind the head coach and QB advantage with the Colts. I trust Frank Reich and Jacoby Brissett to overcome Mike Tomlin and Mason Rudolph. If Rudolph and Tomlin come out on top, so be it. I’m willing to lose a bet where I think we have a distinct advantage in two of the most important aspects of football.
NFL Pick: IND (-1) (-110) 1U
Baltimore Ravens
The Sunday Night affair between the Ravens and Patriots is arguably the game of the year to this date. Baltimore presents New England’s first “real” challenge of the season. I say “real” because I’m not one of those “schedule” dolts who disregard the Patriots because they haven’t “beaten anybody.”
If you watched the Cleveland game last weekend, the Browns had a real chance to win that game if not for all of the turnovers. Cleveland had a 51% success rate on early downs against the Patriots, including a 55% success rate when running the football. Baltimore is 2nd on the year in early-down rushing success rate. We saw Belichick struggle with a vaguely similar offense when Greg Roman was with the 49ers and Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco dropped 41 in New England several years ago. I’m not saying that will happen again, just that Roman can develop a game plan to attack New England like no one else has been able to do this year.
What could be the difference-maker is Baltimore’s incapability to rush the passer. The Ravens rank 29th on the year in adjusted sack rate, which doesn’t bode well when facing Tom Brady. The Ravens are expected to get Jimmy Smith back, but stopping Brady will prove to be a tall task.
Unlike Cleveland, Baltimore is a fantastic organization. I trust John Harbaugh was preparing for this game throughout the bye week as opposed to whatever Freddie Kitchens was doing on his. Between Harbaugh’s preparation and the front office’s investment into football analytics, I trust the Ravens will give the Patriots all they can handle. The yards per play model says this spread is just about right, so we aren’t getting value there. I’m just putting my trust in Harbaugh to do what he has done before: give New England fits.
NFL Pick: BAL +4 (-115) 0.7U
BAL ML +170 0.3U
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Summary
That’s it for my 2019 NFL Week 9 picks against the spread. Good luck, and let’s hope we can turn a profit this week. Be sure to follow the PFN All-Access Twitter account (@PFN365AA) for live updates, Ben Rolfe’s totals article, Chris Smith’s article, Jason Sarney’s player props article, and listen to the Against the Spread podcast with Jason Sarney and Ryan Gosling for more NFL picks!
James Aguirre is a writer for PFN covering NFL betting and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter @PFN_James.
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