The slump continues for the Pro Football Network betting team. Analyzing our NFL Week 8 picks, we were able to do a much better job than the week prior but still posted a slight loss overall. We were down around a unit on the week with our NFL bets. Luckily, some members of the team were able to use what they learned last week to post impressive bounce-back performances, while others were able to continue to gather the necessary information to put together long term profitability. Taking a look at some of the early NFL odds for next week, there are several that the PFN team likes!
The books have been enjoying successful back-to-back weeks, as many major handicapping outlets have struggled. However, we make no excuses and will continue to study and work hard to provide long-term profitability to our All-Access members!
Before we jump into what we were able to do during NFL Week 8, let us take a look at the early NFL Week 9 odds that have been released. Grabbing some of these lines early can be the difference between making and losing money on a weekly basis.
NFL Week 9 lines (BetOnline):
SF @ ARI +8
HOU vs JAX* +2.5
WAS @ BUF -10
TEN @ CAR -3.5
CHI @ PHI -4.5
MIN @ KC N/A
NYJ @ MIA +4.5
IND @ PIT pick'em
DET @ OAK -2
TB @ SEA -6.5
CLE @ DEN -1.5
GB @ LAC +3
NE @ BAL +3.5
DAL @ NYG +7
BYEs: ATL, CIN, LAR, NO
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) October 28, 2019
NFL Picks: The Week 8 PFN rundown
Whether it be on our Against the Spread podcast, numerous articles on the site, or our live Twitter plays, we will always do our best to bring profitable NFL picks to our subscribers. Sports betting is not easy, and we are here to ensure that you have all the information necessary to give you a chance to win. Here is a look at how each handicapper did in their respective category.
Ben Rolfe: Totals Expert
Our Totals Expert seems to have found a niche that will help bring in profits to our subscribers. Instead of focusing solely on game totals, Ben was able to pinpoint two team totals that were profitable for him. His logic behind picking them is sound.
“One thing I am going to do with my picks for the NFL Week 8 point totals is a pivot to focusing more on team totals. There are too many bad teams in the league right now, and their no-shows have cost us a few times. Therefore, I am going to target offensive versus defensive matchups I think might be slightly underrated, be that for the over or the under.”
Unfortunately, a profitable week was haltered by a measly half a point. Ben took over 51.5 in the Houston game, which ended right on 51. Either way, team totals seem to be a weakness in the books that our Totals Expert will be looking to exploit for the remainder of the season.
2019 Record: -4.75 units
Jason Sarney: The Prop Master
Our Against the Spread co-host and local Prop Master had another tough week. He missed on his “Play of the Week” two-unit special, with Saquon Barkley. Unfortunately, game flow in the Giants and Detriot game really hurt the Barkley over 78.5 yards prop. The Giants were down early, and they started throwing the ball against this weak Lions secondary.
One thing that Jason was able to nail was the lack of defense that Kansas City would have against the Green Bay run game. Even without Patrick Mahomes, this game proved to be one of the best of the week. Andy Reid once again was able to show how effective he is with backup quarterbacks, with Matt Moore going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers.
Aaron Jones had a huge game, and our Prop Master was all over it. Jones ran behind an all of a sudden impressive Packers offensive line and was able to take advantage of another remarkable performance from Rodgers. The Packers are starting to look like a potential sleeper Super Bowl candidate.
“The Chiefs are letting running backs scamper for 5.0 yards a carry, and Jones is averaging that exact figure in his career up to this point. Even though his early average per-carry figure this season is a yard less at 4.0, he is a safe play for teen-level hand-offs.”
Then, when it looked like the week was taking a terrible turn for Jason, he came back strong Monday night! He added a two-unit play on Walton over 17.5 receiving yards, a feat he accomplished in the fourth quarter. He also won Conner over 109.5 total yards. These profits made it so that he barely lost money on the week!
2019 Record: +1.25 unit
Chris Smith: Handicapping Specialist
Pro Football Network’s Handicapping Specialist had a good week, bringing his overall yearly unit count back into the positives. Proving once again that the point spread doesn’t matter, Chris hit the Philidelphia money line with positive odds for a big win to start the week.
The world of NFL betting is cruel, and this was proven once again this week. The difference between a huge week and a good week for Chris once again fell on half a point. Chris was able to get the over/under at 51 in the Oakland and Houston game. There were points scored by both teams, and Deshaun Watson has another impressive performance. However, the total landed right on the money and resulted in a push. All was not in vain, however, as our expert was able to grab Houston money line during the game at plus money for a nice winner.
2019 Record: +0.75 unit
James Aguirre: The Volatility Expert
The Volatility Expert was able to produce a winning week and snapped out of his recent slump. It wasn’t incredibly profitable, but it was in the positives!
Unfortunately, James put his faith in a bounce-back spot for the New York Jets and Sam Darnold. After an absolute massacre the week before, Darnold should have been able to do more against this Jacksonville defense. His logic was sound, however.
“We have seen Darnold showcase his tremendous upside at times, and I think this spot could be one of those spots. I expect them to have success throwing the ball to LeVeon Bell, considering the Jaguars have three linebackers who are out for this game.”
A huge week was so very close, as his Tampa Bay money line was close right up until the very end. Jameis Winston cannot stop throwing interceptions, and it is costing his team victories. James was, however, on the right side of the Seattle game, backing Russell Wilson in a cupcake matchup against Atlanta’s secondary.
2019 Record: +2 units
Against the Spread Podcast NFL Picks
The Against the Spread Podcast had the best performance of the week, with our new Saturday time slot finally bringing in some winners. With only five plays this week, the guys were able to hit on all but one, with Carolina deciding they didn’t feel like showing up against San Francisco.
Co-host Ryan Gosling brought up some good points on the podcast regarding the sustainability of the 49ers. However, it looks like this Niners’ team won’t need to rely on good quarterback play, but instead will use elite defense and Kyle Shanahan’s excellent coaching to win games.
The podcast jumped on Seattle before it was announced that Matt Ryan wasn’t going to play. Turned out to be the right move even if Matt Schaub nearly threw for 500 yards. Seattle covered the 6.5 but not the closing number of eight.
2019 Record: +4 units
Week 9 NFL odds and early action
Taking a look at some of the opening NFL odds, there are two games that the public and sharps have jumped on. Will we join the herd or break away?
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals:
78% of the bets and 98% of the money on over 44 points
There seems to be a trend in the NFL betting community these days regarding Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. People love betting the over. Why is that? Well, it is because they have a terrible defense at they run a fast pace air-raid offense. This means that they have more opportunities to score because they are throwing the ball so much that it stops the clock.
This week, the 49ers will be coming to town and bringing with them one of the best defenses in football. Up until now, Arizona has been averaging 21.2 points per game, 23.3 in their last three. This is good enough for 19th in the NFL. The offense has been trending in the right direction. However, what we saw this past week when Arizona went up against an elite defense in New Orleans, they managed to score only nine points.
Why is the money coming in on the over then if Arizona cannot put up points against good defenses? Well, the public believes that Murray will make mistakes, and the Niners will get points out of them. I might die on this hill alone, but I firmly believe that Jimmy Garoppolo is not a good quarterback. So far this season, he has nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. He hasn’t been tested and does not throw the ball downfield. Shanahan, the run game, and an elite defense have carried the team to a perfect record.
I will not join the herd in this one expecting the over. I think that Arizona will struggle to score, and the Niners will run the ball and bleed the clock. Yes, they put up 51 points last week. But, they won’t have that kind of offensive explosion again. Breakaway and take the under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
73% of the bets and 83% of the money on the under 53 points
Ladies and gentlemen, we are officially betting on the highest total on the board. The high flying Tampa Bay offense with Winston, Evans, and Godwin will be heading to Seattle to take on the even higher-flying Seahawks with Wilson and Lockett. The total opened at 53.5 and has recently been bet down half a point.
Both these teams are capable of putting up points. Tampa Bay is fifth in the NFL, averaging 28, and Seattle is eleventh averaging 26. If we put those together, you can see why oddsmakers set this line at 53.5.
Playing in Seattle was once synonymous with betting the under. There was a time where Seattle’s defense was one of a kind and able to stop anybody. They are far from that now, with most of those elite defensive players having moved on.
This week, Winston will come in and probably make this defense look a lot better than it is, throwing at least two interceptions. He is currently battling Baker Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions thrown. That being said, offensively, Seattle loves to run the ball. Tampa Bay is very capable of stopping the run. They have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. It will take only one long drive on the ground for either team for this over to be in jeopardy.
I will join the herd on this one and take the under 53 points. It will probably go even lower, so take it while you can!
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