15 Best NFL Prop Bets To Target in Week 9, Including Leonard Fournette, Aaron Rodgers, and Deon Jackson

Heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, here are my top NFL prop bets for the Sunday slate of games, including action on Leonard Fournette and Aaron Rodgers.

There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is it more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Sunday slate of games.

Top NFL Player Bets To Bet Today

All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.).

It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: What line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.

Last week’s plays (including the PFN Discord plays) went 14-7, winning 6.0 units. Currently, we are sitting at 79-63, +15.9 units on the season.

After Week 7 was boosted by two large plays, I wanted more consistent success in Week 8. Fortunately, we got just that. My only regret is not bumping up the units on a couple of my most confident plays. Nevertheless, wins are wins. Let’s keep things rolling in Week 9.

Joe Burrow Over 261.5 Passing Yards -111 (Caesars)

Even in a game where Joe Burrow largely struggled, he still managed 232 passing yards last week. In the previous two weeks, Burrow threw for 481 and 300, respectively.

Last week was the first game the Bengals had to play without Ja’Marr Chase. Some growing pains were to be expected. Now, they’ve had another full week to adjust. Coming off a blowout loss in Cleveland, I’m expecting the Bengals to bounce back in a big way.

One thing Chase’s injury didn’t change is head coach Zac Taylor’s pass-first philosophy. The Bengals lead the NFL, by far, in neutral-game-script pass rate at a whopping 70%.

The Panthers are an average matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but this is more about the expectation that the Bengals will come out firing. I’m expecting them to throw early and often in what will kind of amount to a statement game. I think Burrow goes for 300+ here.

  • My line
    261.5 -111 (Caesars)
  • Current line
    255 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Highest I’d go
    N/A — I’m the one with the bad line. You will all get a much better deal than me.

Mac Jones Under 210.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)

Week 8 marked the first time all season Mac Jones failed to reach 200 yards passing. This may seem a bit like chasing last week’s numbers, but the matchup suggests Jones will fall short of 200 yards once again.

The Colts allow just 200 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Meanwhile, they allow the 14th-most rushing yards per game to running backs. They’re not the ultimate run-funnel defense, but they are, in fact, a run-funnel defense. As if Bill Belichick needed any additional incentive to run the ball.

MORE: Lock of the Week and Upset of the Week

The Patriots are tied for seventh in neutral-game-script run rate at 49%. The Colts and Patriots have the lowest total of the week at 40.5, and New England plays at the sixth-slowest pace, averaging 30 seconds between snaps. Everything points to a slow-paced, run-heavy game on both sides.

  • My line
    210.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    212.5 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Lowest I’d go
    210.5

Tyquan Thornton Under 36.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

Perhaps I’m getting bamboozled here, but this line seems really high. Tyquan Thornton has caught exactly one pass in each of his last two games. Against the Jets, he saw just two targets.

My suspicion is DeVante Parker’s absence is the reason for Thornton’s inflated receiving yards line. However, Parker was essentially out for the entirety of last week’s game as well, getting hurt on his first snap of the game.

Thornton hasn’t come close to this number in three of his four games played. The one time he went over, it was literally by half a yard, and he needed four receptions to get there.

Given my projection about how this game will go, I don’t expect much in the way of volume for Thornton. He will need to get there on a splash play. When Jones does throw, he will likely be looking Jakobi Meyers’ way. If Thornton has two catches for 40 yards, more power to him. I don’t think he will.

  • My line
    36.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    34.5 -120 (DraftKings)
  • Lowest I’d go
    34.5

Jared Goff Over 0.5 Interceptions -120 (DraftKings)

Jared Goff has thrown an interception in five of his seven games this season. Last week, against the Dolphins’ depleted pass defense, was the first time Goff failed to throw a pick in a loss.

I’m expecting the Lions to lose to the Packers this week. Green Bay has recorded an interception in each of their past two games, and I think Goff makes at least one critical mistake in this one.

  • My line
    -120 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    -125 (DraftKings)
  • Highest price I’d pay
    -130

Christian Kirk Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards -110 (DraftKings)

Last week, we faded Christian Kirk against a tough Broncos defense and it worked out. This week, we’re all in on Kirk.

The Raiders allow the 13th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. While that may not seem like anything to write home about, the most important aspect of that is they particularly struggle at defending slot receivers. And Kirk runs 75% of his routes out of the slot.

Eight of Kirk’s 35 receptions on the season have gone for at least 21 yards. He even had a 25-yard reception against the Broncos last week while still staying under his receiving-yards total. He’s caught a 21-yard pass in six of his eight games this season. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Kirk and the Jaguars’ passing attack.

  • My line
    20.5 -110 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    Same
  • Highest price I’d pay
    -120

Will Dissly Longest Reception Over 11.5 Yards -120 (DraftKings)

The last time we took Will Dissly’s longest reception over was against the Cardinals three weeks ago. He caught one pass for 12 yards in that game. We’re going back to the well against this soft tight end defense.

Of the receiving yards allowed by the Cardinals, 26.6% have gone to tight ends. They face the fourth-highest target share to the position in the league.

MORE: Fantasy TE Streamers and Rankings Week 9

Dissly ran a season-high 22 routes last week. He’s caught at least two passes in every game, except for the aforementioned game against the Cardinals. If Dissly catches two passes once again, I’m fairly confident one of them will be for at least 12 yards.

  • My line
    11.5 -120 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    11.5 -115 (BetRivers)
  • Highest I’d go
    11.5

DK Metcalf Longest Reception Under 23.5 Yards -117 (Caesars)

This one may seem counterintuitive since DK Metcalf is a premier downfield target. However, Metcalf hasn’t been used that way in quite some time. He averaged 15.6 yards per reception over his first two seasons but is at just 12.8 over the last two.

The Cardinals allow the second-lowest deep-ball completion rate at 29.3%. Overall, they are the fourth-toughest matchup on deep throws.

Meanwhile, Metcalf only has three receptions all season for longer than 23.5 yards, and two of them were against the Lions. He caught just two passes for 34 yards the last time these teams met. While I do expect a better outing from Metcal this week, he can easily have a strong game without catching anything downfield.

  • My line
    23.5 -117 (Caesars)
  • Current line
    23.5 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Lowest I’d go
    23.5

Aaron Rodgers Under 35.5 Pass Attempts -125 (DraftKings)

I expected to see this line at around 32.5 and was very surprised to see it as high as it is.  Aaron Rodgers is not the 40+ pass attempts per game quarterback we once knew.

On the season, Rodgers is averaging 34.25 pass attempts per game. Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

On the rare occasion in which the Packers actually win a game, Rodgers doesn’t throw much. In fact, he’s yet to attempt more than 35 passes in a single win. Overall, it’s something he’s done just twice, with both instances coming against the New York teams when Green Bay was trying to catch up late.

The Lions are truly horrendous at defending the run. They allow the third-most rushing yards per game and lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed on average. Look for the Packers to give 35+ carries to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, limiting Rodgers’ pass attempts. The only way I see us losing this is if the Packers inexplicably fall behind by multiple scores.

  • My line
    35.5 -125 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    35.5 -122 (FanDuel)
  • Lowest I’d go
    34.5

Aaron Jones Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards -105 (DraftKings)

This is a perfect storm of an efficient runner against a bad run defense. Jones is averaging 5.9 yards per carry — fourth-most in the league. He has six carries on the season of at least 17 yards, including at least one in half of his games played.

As I mentioned above, the Lions can’t stop the run. They’re allowing 5.1 yards per carry on the ground. Jones just needs to break free once.

  • My line
    16.5 -105 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    15.5 -120 (BetRivers)
  • Highest I’d go
    I specifically waited for it to move to 16.5 at better odds, but I’d still take it at 15.5 (-120).

AJ Dillon Over 40.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)

We continue attacking this Lions’ run defense. Dillon has gone over this number in five of his eight games this season, including last week.

More specifically, Dillon has gone over this number all but one time he’s gotten to 10 carries, and that came against the Bucs. Dillon should get at least 10-12 carries in this one, as the Packers look to exploit the Lions’ weak run defense.

  • My line
    40.5 -114 (FanDuel)
  • Current line
    Same
  • Highest I’d go
    40.5

Alec Pierce Over 29.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

This one is pretty simple. Perhaps I’m falling for a trap, but I don’t understand why this line is so low. Alec Pierce has had at least 37 receiving yards in six consecutive games. Even with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback against a solid Patriots pass defense, I have full confidence in him to find his way to 30 yards.

  • My line
    29.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    28.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Highest I’d go
    31.5

Michael Pittman Jr. Longest Reception Under 21.5 Yards -111 (Caesars)

I love Michael Pittman Jr., so it pains me to keep betting his unders every week. But my affinity for players can’t get in the way of good bets. Pittman has just three receptions for over 20 yards all season, and two of them came against the Chiefs.

Ehlinger is averaging just 8.5 air yards per attempt. It’s admittedly a small sample size — just one start — but he’s not exactly the type of quarterback that’s going to throw it deep. Combine that with Pittman being used as an underneath guy all season (his 6.4 aDOT ranks 88th amongst wide receivers), and I will take this bet all day.

  • My line
    21.5 -111 (Caesars)
  • Current line
    21.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Lowest I’d go
    21.5

Deon Jackson Under 83.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -111 (Caesars)

We’ve seen Deon Jackson in a primary role twice this season. The first time was replacing a concussed Nyheim Hines on Thursday night, in which he totaled 91 yards. The second time was the following week when he got the start with Jonathan Taylor and Hines still out. Jackson totaled 121 yards.

So, why am I confident in him going under 83.5 total yards? Jackson caught 14 passes in those two games. That was with Matt Ryan under center. I don’t see Jackson hitting this number without a significant contribution in the passing game. He’s unlikely to get that from Ehlinger.

MORE: Week 9 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings

Last week, Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes. Just three of them went to his running backs. With Ehlinger’s mobility and his lack of experience, he’s less likely to check it down. It was checkdowns that accounted for nearly all of Jackson’s receptions.

I’m banking on Jackson only catching a couple of passes and him not being efficient enough on the ground against a Patriots defense allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs. Jackson can still have a productive outing for fantasy managers with something like 12 carries for 50 yards and 3-20 in the air, yet fall short of this number.

  • My line
    83.5 -111 (Caesars)
  • Current line
    85.5 -125 (PointsBet) or 81.5 -111 (Caesars)
  • Lowest I’d go
    78.5

Leonard Fournette Under 78.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)

I’m very surprised to see sportsbooks set Leonard Fournette’s total yardage number so high. Typically, when lines are not what we expect, our initial reaction should be to think, “What am I missing?”

When it comes to props, oftentimes, it’s a case of the lines just not being as sharp. I’ve found success over the years in noticing changes in usage before sportsbooks adjust for them. That’s what I believe we have with Fournette.

Over the past two weeks, Fournette has totaled 58 and 26 yards against the Ravens and Panthers, respectively. He played 72% of the snaps last week and 60% the week prior.

  • My line
    78.5 -115 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    78.5 +102 (Caesars)
  • Lowest I’d go
    75.5

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards -120 (DraftKings)

This is yet another line that jumps out at me as wrong. Why is this number not closer to 22.5 or 23.5?

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep-ball specialist. It’s what he does. He’s averaging 16.8 yards per reception on the season and has six receptions of at least 23 yards.

The Titans are a special kind of bad against the pass. Of their receiving yards allowed, 66% go to wide receivers. More specifically, they can’t defend the deep ball. They allow a 63% completion rate on deep passes, which is, by far, the highest in the NFL.

The Chiefs should go pass-heavy against this pass-funnel defense. MVS is their deep-ball guy. Perhaps Kadarius Toney’s impending debut negatively impacts this line? I’m not sure. Either way, Patrick Mahomes has a 41% deep-ball completion rate, and I expect him to hit MVS for a 20+ yarder.

  • My line
    19.5 -120 (DraftKings)
  • Current line
    20.5 -109 (BetRivers)
  • Highest I’d go
    20.5

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