Zack Moss Fantasy Outlook: Start or sit in Week 16

Only one game remains in Week 16, and some fantasy football championships hang in the balance. With flex spot decisions being imperative to success, Buffalo Bills RB Zack Moss is an intriguing fantasy option in Week 16. Is he worth a flex option, or should he remain on your bench with an impending matchup against the New England Patriots?

Zack Moss had a solid but forgotten game in Week 15

While the Buffalo Bills and their fans celebrated winning the AFC East for the first time in 25 years, lost in the bustle was Zack Moss’s performance.

Moss by the numbers

Moss carried the ball 13 times for 81 yards on the day. The rushing total matched his season/career-high that was set back in Week 8 against New England. 

He had more carries than Devin Singletary (13-8), but thanks to Singletary’s late TD, he stole the spotlight and ended with 17.4 PPR points — well ahead of Moss and his 8.1 PPR. 

If not for the TD, Singletary would have finished 7-for-17 in carries and yards (and 3-of-3 for 16 receiving yards) for a measly 6.3 PPR on the day.

The current Bills RB committee

More times than not, Moss looked the better running back but lacks the overall explosiveness that Singletary brings. 

In his 11 games this season, Zack Moss has 97 carries for 416 yards (4.29 avg) and three touchdowns. He also has added 12 receptions on 16 targets for 82 yards and one touchdown. 

The lack of involvement in the passing game, the committee approach, and Josh Allen’s rushing ability have contributed to his RB51 rankings in PPR formats. Despite playing in eight more games, Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey is ahead of Zack Moss as the fantasy RB50 on the season.

Zack Moss and Singletary have been largely frustrating in 2020 for fantasy

Sure, Singletary scored, but that was just his second trip into the end zone all season. 

Singletary has been the one back to see the consistent work this season, though. Moss has been out-touched 178 to 109 and is second in yards (891 to 498). The lone spot that Zack Moss has been more successful? Touchdowns, and mainly, his red zone usage. 

Moss has four touchdowns on the season, and all of them have come in the red zone. His three rushing TDs have come from his team-leading 26 red zone rushes. His one receiving TD on the year was on a four-yard reception, his only catch on two targets inside the 20-yard line. 

A larger issue is that neither RB is the top option even rushing the ball in the red zone. That goes to QB Josh Allen. Of Allen’s eight rushing TDs, seven have come inside the five-yard line on nine attempts. Of the team’s rushing attempts in goal-to-go or inside the five, Allen has 40.9% of the team’s total.

The Bills offense is completely different than last year

While most of us thought QB Josh Allen would improve, I don’t think we knew it would be this much. With that improvement and addition of Stefon Diggs, head coach Sean McDermott has changed the offense.

Run vs. pass play call balance

In 2019, the Bills threw the ball 513 times and ran the ball 465 times. In 2020, they are on pace for 592 passing attempts and 405 carries. 

Last year, out of the 31 quarterbacks who attempted 25 or more passes beyond 20 yards down the field, Josh Allen’s 30.9% adjusted completion percentage was 29th. The only QBs worse were Kyle Allen (29.6%) and Dwayne Haskins (29.6).

Out of the 20 QBs who fit the qualifier this year, Josh Allen is 12th at 46.8%. His percentage of on-target throws has also climbed from 73.2% (21st) to 78.7% (8th in the NFL).

The change in offensive philosophy has allowed Josh Allen to be the QB5 and Stefon Diggs to be the fantasy WR4 in PPR.

Zack Moss has taken over the “Frank Gore” role for 2020

In 2019, Gore averaged 10.4 carries and one target per game. This season, Moss is averaging 8.8 carries per game and 1.5 targets per game. In 16 games last year, Gore saw 25 red zone carries. In 2020, Moss has 26 in the 11 games he has played.

What should you do with Zack Moss in Week 16 of the fantasy playoffs?

It’s hard to recommend Zack Moss or even Devin Singletary for fantasy in Week 16. It’s worth noting that Singletary did out-snap Moss 39 to 34 in Week 15. 

The Week 16 matchup vs. the Patriots

Moss gets the Patriots this week, and New England has allowed back-to-back 100-yard games against Cam Akers and Salvon Ahmed.

As a unit, the Patriots have struggled against the rush at times. They give up the 11th-most points per game to RBs at 24.24 PPR. Teams are averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 112.8 yards per game on the ground. Both are sixth-most in the NFL. Running backs have accounted for 37.2% of the production by skill-position players against them. Which ranks third, only behind only the Packers and Lions.

A more recent cohort of the Patriots’ run defense

Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs while allowing 590 yards and three touchdowns on 112 carries (5.27 yards per carry) on the ground. 

Of the 145.9 total yards allowed per game, only 33.07 come from the air, 23rd in the NFL. They have allowed only one receiving TD all season, and no RB has more than 36 yards through the air against the Patriots. This hurts Singletary more than Zack Moss as his fantasy status is not predicated on his receiving game or lack thereof. 

Zack Moss and his skill set vs. NE’s weakness makes the most sense. However, Moss is nothing more than a mid-to-low-end RB3 that lacks any real explosive traits or ceiling. 

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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.