Should You Start Zack Moss or Chase Brown? Analyzing the Week 3 Matchups for Both RBs

Some expected Cincinnati Bengals running backs Zack Moss and Chase Brown to split equally, but it has been surprisingly lopsided through the first two weeks.

Moss has far outpaced Brown in rushing attempts (21 to 7), receiving yards (30 to 12), and snaps (84 to 30).

Both players have three receptions, although Moss has two additional targets, both of which he dropped in the season-opening loss to the New England Patriots.

Projecting Zack Moss’ and Chase Brown’s Fantasy Output in Week 3

Is this an indication of the plan, or just a small sample size as the Bengals’ offense still tries to find itself?

Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher addressed that topic Thursday.

“Any discrepancy you are seeing to this point is unintentional and the product of a small sample size,” he said. “That is neither an endorsement that Chase needs to do more or Zack needs to do less. There will come a time, and we do it every week, where we have to assess how much each guy is getting.

“I think it is too early,” Pitcher continued. “I feel the same way about both those players that I felt a month ago, three months ago — and I expect them both to be instrumental going forward.”

Zack Moss takes it in for Cincy #RuleTheJungle

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— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Moss is the player to start. His projected 12.0 points include 56 rushing yards, 2 receptions, and 15 yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Brown (6.6 points).

My ranking for the two Bengals running backs aligns with the consensus for one main reason.

Yes, I think the Bengals will make a concerted effort to get Brown more touches. But something else Pitcher said makes it sound as though Brown has some developmental work to do in one key area of the position’s responsibility that has nothing to do with fantasy.

The Bengals simply trust Moss a little bit more in pass protection, which means he’s going to get the bulk of the third-down snaps.

And, given his added size, more usage in goal-line and short yardage.

“I wouldn’t say it’s like Zack is the protecting back,” Pitcher said. “We are developing Chase in that role, too, because he can do a lot of things as a pass catcher that you want to use. So can Zack.

“The numbers probably bear that out if you just look at it,” he continued. “Right now (Moss) is probably filling a little bit more that role. Part of that becomes when you are the protecting back — not quite to the extent of the quarterback — in terms of a blitz pickup package and understanding the movement patterns and front structures and what we can expect from those things, that is a heavy lift in terms of preparation.

KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings

“You only get so many of those reps in practice every week. It is hard to split those reps evenly and say you feel that you did right by the guy you are going to ask to go do that in the game.”

The bottom line is it should even out.

But for now, Moss is the better value play, even though Brown could take any given touch 80 yards for a score.

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Moss and Brown in Week 3

Moss: For a player on a 0-2 team without 110 scrimmage yards this season, I’m oddly optimistic about Moss’ outlook moving forward. He has tripled the the carry count of Chase Brown in both games this season and earned four targets in the season-opening loss to the Patriots.

Moss’ snap share:

• Week 1: 64.6%
• Week 2: 82%

With the Commanders on the slate to round out this week and a date with the Panthers next Sunday, your opportunity to invest in Moss is likely running short. He’s an average RB2 for me who I’m playing over a featured back in a similarly positive matchup like Jerome Ford.

Brown: We entered the season with the knowledge that Moss would likely handle the valuable fantasy role, but that Brown would have a path not only to touches but potentially lead this backfield in total opportunities.

Two weeks in, it feels fair to punt on that idea. Brown has seven carries on his 2024 résumé and wasn’t targeted a single time in the last-second loss to the Chiefs.

If you have the roster space to hold, I would, simply because the waiver wire options are limited, but there’s no reason to spin Brown’s profile in an optimistic manner based on what we’ve seen thus far.

Stats in this article are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated