XFL Week 3 Betting Preview: Rise of the home underdog?

Week 3 of the XFL is upon us already, and in this betting preview, we will be looking at whether this will be the week of the home underdogs. Entering Week 3, the home team has been favored in five of the eight games, covering in three. Meanwhile, the three road favorites have gone 1-2 ATS, largely thanks to the two abject road performances from the Tampa Bay Vipers. Overall, home teams have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS, so with three road teams favored this week, we will get an idea just how important homefield advantage is in the XFL.

In terms of the totals, the under has dominated so far with a 6-2 record. The two overs have both come in Houston Roughnecks games who have been the most efficient offense in the league, averaging just 8.5 yards per point. However, with the Vipers averaging a whopping 56.9 yards per point, the chances of them returning a third straight over may be in doubt. 

Houston Roughnecks @ Tampa Bay Vipers (+6.5) O/U: 44.5 | February 22nd, 2 p.m. ET

Chris Smith

“Last weekend I hit on a “Texas Two-Step” money line parlay when both the Houston Roughnecks and Dallas Renegades were able to win outright as favorites on Sunday. While Dallas also covered a 3.5 point spread in Los Angeles, the Roughnecks failed to cover the touchdown spread against the Saint Louis Battlehawks. This week I’m going right back to the well with Dallas and Houston, albeit as road favorites with a day less rest than their respective opponents.

We’ll start with the early game Saturday afternoon, where the undefeated Roughnecks travel to Tampa to take on the winless Vipers. I believe Houston has the advantage over the Vipers in just about every meaningful category, and I suspect they cover the spread in this one as well. The Tampa Bay Vipers have the third most yards accumulated through the first two weeks of the season, yet still haven’t managed to get into the end zone on offense. While quarterback play has been brutal for Tampa so far, some of the blame has to fall on Marc Trestman. He hasn’t evoked a ton of confidence from fans when mic’d up so far, both on the sideline and in the locker room. June Jones and early MVP favorite P.J. Walker haven’t had any such issues on offense. The Roughnecks are scoring over 30 points per game, and while their defense has given up six touchdowns themselves, they’ve also wreaked havoc with five forced turnovers and eight sacks. I’m counting on the Houston defense to force the Vipers into some turnovers and P.J. Walker to convert those into touchdowns on the other end.

The Saturday night game sees the Dallas Renegades travel to Seattle to take on the Dragons. While the Dragons showed off one of the most raucous environments the XFL has to offer last Saturday against the aforementioned Vipers, this Dallas offense will provide a much stronger challenge. The Renegades were early favorites to win the league title, and while they looked mediocre at best for the first seven quarters of their season, Landry Jones and Bob Stoops seemed to find some rhythm in a high scoring 4th quarter against the Wildcats in Los Angeles Sunday evening. Cameron Artis-Payne did his best Ezekiel Elliot impersonation late in that Renegades victory and Seattle will have their hands full trying to slow down the Dallas offense. I think the Dragons might keep this one close at home on Saturday night, but if I can pair the two better quarterbacks and coaches at +119 odds, I feel compelled to throw a Unit on this road favorite ML parlay.”

1u – Dallas Renegades ML & Houston Roughnecks ML | +119

Ryan Gosling

“This one is interesting. I am not quite sure why the line is less than a TD here considering how terrible the Vipers have looked. I think that the public and oddsmakers are still holding onto hope that Tampa Bay will come into form and become the team we expected them to be at the start of the year. The Vipers are the only XFL team to have not scored an offensive TD through two weeks. QB Taylor Cornelius was a bit better than Aaron Murray, but not that much better. Quinton Flowers continues to be a complementary piece behind center but is not the answer at QB. This offense is just a mess.

Houston will be able to put up points on the road against Marc Trestman, and whatever QB they decide to roll out.”

1u – Houston Roughnecks -5.5 | -110

Dallas Renegades @ Seattle Dragons (+4.5) OU: 43.5 | February 22nd, 5 p.m. ET

Ryan Gosling

“I like the under in this one. Dallas will continue to run the football and chew the clock, while Seattle isn’t the type of offense to put up big points. The spread is a stay away, but the total is an under play.”

1u – Under 44 Total Points | -110

Ben Rolfe

“After a slow start in Week 1, the Renegades kicked into gear late in their Week 2 game scoring three second-half touchdowns. Their run game was the star of the show in Week 2, and now they face an opponent in the Dragons who allowed the Vipers to average 6.7 yards per rush play. I expect the Renegades to be able to move the ball with ease on the ground against the Dragons, who relied on defensive plays to beat the Vipers last week. The Dragons are also a run-first team, and I expect this game to be close enough where they stick to that game plan. Ultimately, the Renegades should have too much for the Dragons this week, and both the Renegades to cover and the under are plays I like this week.

1u – Under 44 Total Points | -110
1u – Dallas Renegades -4.5 | -110

New York Guardians @ St. Louis BattleHawks (-10) O/U: | February 23rd, 3 p.m. ET

Ben Rolfe

“This spread is on the high side, but the Guardians were really poor last week, and the BattleHawks have impressed against two of the better teams. Through two weeks, the Guardians have slightly embarrassing statistics of having given up the most yards while having the least themselves. Only the Wildcats have a bigger discrepancy in YPP (-2) than the Guardians (-1.8). A final kicker for how awful the Guardians have been offensively being a third-down conversion rate of just 9%. 

Meanwhile, the BattleHawks are averaging the second-highest yards per pass play in the league, have a positive YPP differential, and are converting on 54.8% of their third downs. The BattleHawks may have one of the top three quarterbacks in the league, while the Guardians are in a tight contest with the Vipers for the worst situation right now.”

1u – St. Louis BattleHawks -10 | -110

D.C. Defenders @ Los Angeles Wildcats (+8) O/U: 44 | February 23rd, 6 p.m. ET

Ryan Gosling

“The Wildcats got Josh Johnson back at QB last week and were able to give the Renegades a bit of a fight. With the Wildcats being at home, I think they could have upset potential here. Johnson should be better with a week under his belt, and this one might be competitive. However, my favorite play here is going to be the over. L.A’s defense is by far the worst in the league, allowing 6.2 yards per play. The Defenders will be able to put up points here, and I see this one being a shootout.”

1u – Over 44 Total Points | -110

Click to view the running list of our bets for the 2020 XFL season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.

We will continue to release XFL plays and analysis throughout the week. Make sure to follow @PFNBets for all of our plays.