The first week of the 2023 XFL season is upon us, and from an XFL fantasy football perspective, there are a lot of unknowns to consider. That makes it hard to know who to start and sit in Week 1 of the 2023 XFL season. The players are not generally mainstream names, with limited snaps under their belt in a professional setting. Additionally, we have found previously with spring leagues that depth charts are fluid, and often it is under-the-radar players who end up making the biggest impact.
When it comes to trying to work out where to look this week for starting fantasy options, the best information we have is probably to look at the coaches. Using their history in terms of offensive schemes and outputs can be the best indicator in terms of which players could be in line for a big week and who might struggle.
Week 1 XFL Fantasy Football Start ’ems
In this section, we are going to be looking at the offenses that could potentially light up the XFL and who could be a fantasy asset on that offense.
Seattle Sea Dragons Offense
In the last edition of the XFL, it was the Houston Roughnecks that lit up the league, averaging 31.6 points per game through the five weeks of the season. They scored over 30 points on three occasions, with quarterback P.J. Walker leading the league in passing yards (267.6 per game) and touchdowns (three per game). The mastermind behind that offense was head coach June Jones, who is now the offensive coordinator of the Seattle Sea Dragons.
The Sea Dragons expected starting quarterback for Week 1 is Ben DiNucci, who spent two years with the Dallas Cowboys, starting one game and throwing 43 passes in the NFL. There is every chance DiNucci could be this year’s Walker, making him a QB to target this week. The Sea Dragons have seemingly made their intentions very clear, carrying eight wide receivers and no designated tight ends on their opening roster.
You may think that an offense that passes that much could be bad news for the running backs. However, pass-catching back Nick Holley was the second leading receiver for the Roughnecks with 55.8 receiving yards per game on 4.25 receptions per game.
Elsewhere on the Sea Dragons’ offense, judging value gets tricky. In 2020, Jones’ passing game revolved around Cam Phillips, who had 91 yards per game and caught nine of the 15 passing touchdowns for the team. Finding the Phillips on this offense is obviously the goal. Josh Gordon is the most likely candidate, but he is someone that a lot of people have their eye on.
The intriguing name among the Sea Dragons pass catchers is Jaylon Redd. In 2020, Nick Holley played the role of a pass-catching back/slot receiver. He was the second-leading receiver for the Roughnecks with 55.8 receiving yards per game on 4.25 receptions per game.
It may be a coincidence, but Holley wore #33 that season, and Redd is the only designated WR with a similar jersey number (30) on the roster this year. In college, Redd had 131 receptions, 1,435 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns in a five-year career. He also carried the ball 24 times for 179 yards and five touchdowns. Redd could be a good option to get a cheap piece of this Sea Dragon’s passing offense, especially in PPR.
Houston Roughnecks Offense
While Jones might be gone from Houston, his replacement, Wade Phillips, has decided to stick with an exciting offensive style, but this time it looks set to be an air raid-style offense. Offensive coordinator A.J. Smith worked under Jones as the wide receivers coach in 2020. However, Smith has also worked extensively with Hal Mumme, who is credited as being one of the founders of the air raid offense.
Therefore, the quarterback position for the Roughnecks is enticing. Brandon Silvers is expected to be the Week 1 starter and will be looking to make a better impression than he did in Seattle in 2020. He has experience in an air-raid offense and has worked with Smith previously. That should at least get him the first shot as the starter in an offense dripping with potential.
MORE: 2023 XFL Fantasy Rankings
This offense also brought back Nick Holley, who was an under-the-radar fantasy contributor last time. He is listed as an RB in places this time around and is being somewhat forgotten on a stacked-looking RB depth chart. However, in PPR formats, he could be a very solid weekly contributor if Smith leans on him the way Jones’ offense did.
Among the wide receivers, we are once again looking for the Phillips of the group. Jontre Kirkland has been getting some rave reviews out of training camp, so he could be a name that surprises many. Whether you want to risk him in Week 1 over some other, more well-established names is a tough call to make.
Orlando Guardians Offense
The Orlando Guardians offense is really intriguing under the guidance of Terrell Buckley as the head coach and Robert Ford as the offensive coordinator. Paxton Lynch is the most well-known from an NFL standpoint, but Deondre Francois is the upside play. Neither is someone to trust in Week 1, with value in this offense lying elsewhere.
Week 1 is purely an opportunity play when it comes to Jah-Maine Martin and Devin Darrington. Most other teams are carrying three, four, or five running backs. Both Martin and Darrington are intriguing, even though Martin is expected to be the starter. Offensive coordinator Robert Ford is also the running backs coach, although he does have a long history as a wide receivers coach at different levels.
The Guardians team does not seem built to be pass-heavy, so I like both running backs as upside plays this week across the different formats. When it comes to the receivers, Eli Rogers stands out as a potential low-priced option with name recognition. Charleston Rambo is expected to be the centerpiece of the offense, but he has been priced as such in drafts and on DFS slates.
Week 1 XFL Fantasy Football Sit ’ems
Much like with starting recommendations, it is tough to say you should sit anyone in Week 1 definitively. Instead, this is more of a section with names to be cautious of than anything. Beware of some well-known and high-priced names with uncertain situations is the moral here.
A.J. McCarron, QB | STL at SA
Trusting the most well-known and most expensive QB on the Week 1 slate is tough to do. Offensive coordinator Bruce Gradkowski has no coaching experience above high school, and head coach Anthony Becht’s only experience is as a tight ends coach with the San Diego Fleet of the AAF in 2019. This team is a complete wild card for the 2023 season.
Further confusing matters is that the Battlehawks QB situation has been in flux this offseason. Ryan Willis was the first QB assigned to the group, but he walked away from the team in training camp and is now set to play in the USFL. Part of the reason is that Nick Tiano outplayed Willis in camp and could push for the starting role. At his price, McCarron just comes with too much uncertainty in Week 1.
T.J. Hammonds, RB | SEA at DC
In 2020, James Butler came from nowhere to lead Jones’ offense in rushing yards. He averaged 44.2 yards per game on an average of 9.2 carries per game. Jones’ offense ran the ball the second-fewest times, at 19.2 attempts per game. T.J. Hammonds does not have a receiving background from his time in college — 13 receptions in five years –, and that really limits his potential.
As the fourth-most expensive running back on this slate, he is someone I am taking a wait-and-see approach on. Brenden Knox’s 27 receptions in three years at Marshall makes him a better fit for the primary back role, assuming Redd is not preferred to all of them with his heavy receiving background.
Sean Modster, WR | ARL vs. LV
Sean Modster’s name really jumped out to me in DraftKings pricing. We haven’t heard much coming out of camp about him, outside of some raving about his skills as a punt returner. When you look at the other high-priced receivers of Josh Gordon, Martavius Bryant, Charleston Rambo, and Jeff Badet, Modster is the odd one out right now.
Maybe Modster will be a star, but paying such a heavy price in Week 1 to find out does not make a lot of sense. I would be hesitant to start him in any format this week unless we hear he is definitively a starting WR for the first game.
Kyle Sloter, QB and Sal Canella, TE | ARL vs. LV
The main reason Kyle Sloter is a top-ranked option for many is that his job security seems pretty high entering the year. The Renegades doubled down by bringing Sloter and his tight end weapon Sal Canella over from the USFL. However, some think Drew Plitt is an under-the-radar option to take Sloter’s job if he struggles.
In Week 1, the price for Sloter worries me. In season-long leagues, he remains a solid starting option if you didn’t get DiNucci in your draft and were scared off Jorda Ta’amu or Brandon Silvers because of uncertainty over their chances to be the QB all season. Paying a premium in DFS for a QB who threw 11 interceptions to nine touchdowns in the USFL rings alarm bells for me.
Similarly, Canella is absolutely fine in a season-long league if you have to start a tight end. He finished the USFL season with the sixth-most receptions (34) for the 11th-most yards (368), However, in formats where you don’t have to start a tight end, he is a risk. Arlington Renegades co-offensive coordinators Jonathan Hayes and Chuck Long did not really utilize the tight end position when they ran the St. Louis Battlehawks offense in the 2020 edition of the XFL.
Orlando Guardians and D.C. Defenders Defenses
For the first few weeks of the year, my plan at defense is to stream away from the air raid and run and shoot offenses. That means I will be avoiding the defenses that play the Houston Roughnecks and the Seattle Sea Dragons. This week, the Guardians head to Houston, and the Defenders host Seattle.
There is certainly no guarantee these two offenses are effective. The Hal Mumme Dallas Renegades, with the air raid style, averaged just 18 points per game in 2020, finishing fifth in the league in that metric. In contrast, the Jones-led offense averaged a league-leading 31.6 points per game.
