In need of a fantasy football win? We aren’t too far from the midway point of our regular season, and you can’t afford to fall too far behind. I’m here to help you break those ties and have your team pointing in the right direction when Week 5 is all said and done.
Which Wide Receivers Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 5?
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Amari Cooper | CLE (at WAS)
Cleveland’s top target earner has seen 37 looks this season, and yet he has cleared 35 yards just once (7-86-2 against the Giants in Week 3). It hasn’t been for a lack of trying – Cooper had an 82-yard touchdown wiped off the board due to a holding penalty and turned a chunk play into an interception after a pass was too accurate for him to come down with.
For the season, Cooper ranks sixth in air yards and seems to be on the precipice of a big performance. Could there be a better spot to come through?
WR1s against Washington:
- Week 1: Mike Evans (23.1 FP, WR6)
- Week 2: Malik Nabers (28.7 FP, WR3)
- Week 3: Ja’Marr Chase (29.8 FP, WR2)
- Week 4: Marvin Harrison Jr. (15.5 FP, WR26)
What is more likely: the Browns offense breaks out or the Washington defense finally steps up? Cooper’s profile isn’t flawless nor is it bulletproof, but I’d rather take my chances on exploiting this matchup than rolling the dice on Tyreek Hill against the Patriots or Tee Higgins against the Ravens.
Brandon Aiyuk | SF (vs. ARI)
We’ve yet to see any signs of life from Aiyuk (68th of 72 qualified receivers in production compared to expectation, -32.2%), and while I’m willing to write off some of the struggles to limited reps this summer, we are nearing put-up or shut-up time.
On the bright side, Purdy did look his way in the end zone despite double coverage, a level of confidence that we had seen in previous seasons and part of why I thought he had WR1 potential this season. I still like there is a fantasy star bubbling beneath the surface here — we just need to see it.
If you’re struggling to blindly trust Aiyuk, I get it. He’s yet to finish a game better than WR35 this season (Ja’Lynn Polk has a top-35 finish this season, as does his teammate DeMario Douglas, despite playing for an offense that is the polar opposite of what the 49ers have).
If I go down with the ship because I bought in on Aiyuk at a discount after a slow month, I’m OK with that. I’m going to go ahead and buy some more stock in him where I can at a discount.
CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at PIT)
CeeDee Lamb continues to do what CeeDee Lamb does, and that is producing at a level that few have hopes of reaching. For the second time in three weeks, he cashed in a touchdown of 50+ yards, showing after-the-catch skills that seem impossible to slow for an entire 60 minutes.
- 2024: +14% over fantasy expectation, 1.99 points per target, 2.26 yards per route
- Career: +15.1% over fantasy expectation, 1.95 points per target, 2.30 yards per route
Let me be clear: Lamb is amazing. He might be the best in the game right now, but I think his current target map reflects more of a solid weekly option than it does someone with the potential to repeat his 1,749-yard, 12-touchdown season in 2023. On the left are his targets this season, and on the right is what his target diet looked like through four weeks.
Lamb has seen 7-10 targets in all four games this season — outside of his two long touchdown receptions, his 2024 résumé isn’t that of an overall WR1 (18-196-0). Of course, those big plays are a part of the profile, and you don’t have to apologize for them, but middle-of-the-field targets just don’t carry the same upside.
Lamb is elite, but I think it’s a long shot for him to return the type of value he did a year ago.
Chris Olave | NO (at KC)
Remember that dud in the opener? Two targets. 11 yards. Remember that?
Olave has cleared 80 receiving yards in all three games since and ranks fourth at the position in yards per route over that stretch. The Saints have dialed back Olave’s downfield usage (his aDOT is down 27.3% from last season), and it’s resulted in a spike in efficiency numbers across the board.
We all liked a top-15 pick from the 2022 draft to return Round 1 fantasy value this year — it’s possible we just had the wrong player pegged.
Christian Kirk | JAX (vs. IND)
Are Christian Kirk’s managers allowed to complain about a 7-61-1 stat line against the Texans last week?
Probably not. Getting a WR14 finish from a member of this underwhelming Jaguars offense is a net win, but after seeing the first four targets of the game and being missed on a long touchdown, there were points left on the field.
I worry a little bit about the Colts allowing the fifth-fewest yards after the catch per reception this season (3.4 yards), but Kirk’s role has been extending with time (9.7 average depth of target in 2022, 10.7 last season, and 13.2 so far in 2024), making a defensive strength like that less impactful.
Nifty move from Christian Kirk in Week 4. Wide open for a 56-yard TD. pic.twitter.com/NrBbfO8VXB
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 30, 2024
The increase in depth of target hasn’t come at the expense of slot usage. In fact, Kirk’s 78.7% slot rate is tracking for the highest rate of his career and is very much a spot where Indianapolis’ secondary is vulnerable.
Slot WRs’ success vs. Colts, 2024
- Week 1: Stefon Diggs (21.9 fantasy points, 55.2% slot usage)
- Week 3: Rome Odunze (23.4 fantasy points, 41% slot usage)
They got the Malik Willis-led Packers in Week 2, a run-oriented script that had little to do with the Colts. Last week, the Steelers didn’t feature any one player in the slot, but their two top pass catchers (George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth) combined to catch five of six slot targets for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Kirk sits as a WR2 for me this week, ranking ahead of the streaking Diontae Johnson and the upside of Brian Thomas Jr.
Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (vs. ARI)
Samuel hauled in a 53-yard bomb in the third quarter last week (second career catch of 40+ air yards), proving that he was able to work himself into game shape rather quickly.
He only had five receiving yards outside of the big play, but seeing a handful of targets and being handed the ball twice is all I wanted to see in his return to action. There’s some risk involved in Samuel’s profile, but with Kittle (23.7% reception share) dinged up, you can feel great about playing this offensive weapon.
Diontae Johnson | CAR (at CHI)
Is it possible that Johnson’s value is higher now than it ever was in Pittsburgh?
I’m not going that far yet, but he had 10 targets by halftime last week and has posted top-10 fantasy finishes in both of Dalton’s starts. His role is a little different than in years past (he ranks eighth in the league in air yards through four weeks), and that introduces a range of outcomes that we haven’t seen from him in the past, but as long as Dalton is playing at an above-average level, he owns a safe profile that you can feel good about.
I’d love to be more bullish on Johnson this week, but players like Zay Flowers (at CIN), Amari Cooper (at WAS), and Christian Kirk (vs. IND) are all in good spots; I couldn’t get him inside of my top 20.
DJ Moore | CHI (vs. CAR)
Williams missed him on an early end-zone target but eventually paid it off with a bullet in the back of the end zone, the duo’s first connection for a score this season. The ceiling hasn’t been there due to the slow start to his quarterback’s career, but with four weekly finishes between WR23-WR41, he’s been viable enough to Flex in most situations.
If you have Moore, you’re playing him for a reasonable floor. It’s not exciting, but most rosters can benefit from a player like Moore — and if you’re bullish on Williams’ development, the stock of his clear WR1 should come along for the ride.
DK Metcalf | SEA (vs. NYG)
Metcalf has finished two weeks this season as a top-12 option at the position and two outside of the top 25, a level of volatility that keeps him out of my rest-of-season top tier.
That said, we are in the business of winning Week 5, and in that world, he is a Tier 1 receiver for me as he faces a secondary that has had all sorts of problems defending WR1s.
In four weeks, the opposing alpha facing the G-Men has averaged six catches and 8.5 targets. Terry McLaurin struggled to be efficient, though that could have been more the result of Jayden Daniels’ second career start. The other three WR1s have all averaged at least 2.3 PPR points per target, highlighted by deep touchdown receptions by both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.
We saw Smith fire four of his first eight passes on Monday night toward Metcalf, solidifying my thought that this offense, much like the Giants, wants to establish its best receiver and go from there. This season, he ranks fifth in total air yards, a role that carries tremendous upside given his physical tools, and the quality of those downfield opportunities is helped by Walker threatening defense on the ground.
He might be chalky in the DFS streets this week, but that’s why you have an entire roster – you can differentiate elsewhere. Metcalf is my WR7 this week, and I think there is a real path for him to lead the position in scoring on this slate.
Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at LAR)
In Love’s return, Wicks racked up 215 air yards, the second most by a receiver this season and the most by a Packer not named Davante Adams over the past six years. He may have only hauled in five of 13 targets, but with Watson sidelined, he has clearly been identified as the field stretching option in this offense and that could result in another usable week from the 2023 fifth-rounder.
Big-play WRs vs. Rams in 2024:
- Week 1: Jameson Williams — 24.4 fantasy points (nine targets, 14.6 aDOT)
- Week 2: Marvin Harrison Jr. — 29 fantasy points (eight targets, 19.5 aDOT)
- Week 3: Jauan Jennings — 46.5 fantasy points (12 targets, 13.4 aDOT)
- Week 4: DJ Moore — 11.2 fantasy points (six targets, 14.7 aDOT)
Those stat lines are illuminating, and while Moore’s numbers drag down the averages, he did account for half of Chicago’s receiver targets — it just wasn’t a high-volume game. Wicks has the athletic skill set that could thrive in this matchup, and that is why I’m comfortable putting him on the Flex radar, even in an offense with no shortage of viable pieces.
I currently have him ranked over Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, and Jordan Addison, all of whom your first instinct would likely slot above him.
Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs. MIN)
A learning curve was to be expected from Wilson, as the role of Rodgers’ WR1 requires plenty of timing and trust; yet, September was still underwhelming. He’s seen 8.5 targets per game, and that is a strong number, though he has yet to reach his expected PPR point total in a single game — he’s seen just one end-zone target and has seen his yards-per-route rate decline each week.
The looks should continue to be there (seven times in four weeks has a receiver seen at least eight targets against Minnesota) and you really have no choice but to trust the process, but my ceiling projection in any given week for Wilson is lower now than it was a month ago.
George Pickens | PIT (vs. DAL)
Even with Justin Fields playing above the level we projected, it’s become clear that George Pickens will have to sustain elite target-earning traits in order to be a viable fantasy starter. His metrics have been trending in the right direction over the past three weeks, and yet, during that run, he’s produced 20.8% below expectation.
The problem?
Pickens caught just 2 of 6 targets inside the opponents’ 30-yard line (78.3% catch rate elsewhere). We know that yardage is unlikely to be a calling card for anyone in Pittsburgh’s offense (even with 312 yards last week, Fields is still averaging just 207.5 yards through the air per game this season), making a lack of efficiency in scoring situations an issue that Pickens is going to have a tough time overcoming.
Across four weeks, the Cowboys have allowed at least 11.5 PPR points to a receiver six times, which came with a unit that was closer to full strength than the one they will trot out there this weekend. That’s encouraging and so is the fact that they allowed 17.8% of pass attempts inside the 30-yard line result in scores last season (22nd).
I’m cautiously optimistic about Pickens this week and have him ranked as a strong Flex play. Dallas has the type of offense that can require Pittsburgh’s offense to open up a bit. If that’s the case, there is top-20 upside in this profile. If not, a third finish this season outside of the top 40 wide receivers is well within the range of outcomes.
I’d be tempted to move on from Pickens if he has a nice week and you can sell him as a top-20 receiver. Given this team’s makeup, consistency will be an issue.
Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs. BAL)
The struggles of this defense (26+ points allowed in three straight games) aren’t great for the city of Cincinnati, but it has resulted in Burrow ranking behind only Geno Smith in completions this season (77); if that continues, Chase is poised for a strong season.
Chase scored from 63 yards out last week on his first catch of the game, and it was a thing of beauty that saw him break three tackles after streaking across the middle of the field. Was it more of a bad Panthers thing than a positive Chase one? Maybe, but he and Burrow connected on a deep timing route, and that is what we like to see.
I mentioned Burrow’s struggles in recent meetings with the Ravens and him being 4-of-17 when throwing deep (23.5%), two factors that limit the upside case of his WR1, but if you fall in line with me and believe this is going to be a passing script for the home team, Chase is set to produce top-10 numbers at the position.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs. NYG)
There are few receivers that will post a four-game run like what JSN has done to start this season.
- Week 1 vs. Broncos: two targets
- Week 2 at Patriots: 16 targets
- Week 3 vs. Dolphins: three targets
- Week 4 at Lions: 12 targets
So … which is it? Is he one of the game’s finest target earners or is he an afterthought?
The fact that the question needs to be asked skews in favor of the latter more than the former, but I think it’s safe to say that the truth is somewhere in the middle. Smith-Njigba has just one top-30 performance this season, but I do think he has a chance to double that total in a matchup against the Giants, the owners of the third-lowest opponent aDOT when targeting receivers (8.4 yards).
We are 21 games into JSN’s career, and while we have been teased on occasion with vertical routes, his ability to win quickly is currently his greatest asset (7.0 career aDOT with a 76.3% catch rate on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield).
He’s a fine Flex play in this matchup, ranking in the same tier as the chain mover on the other sideline in Wan’Dale Robinson – their mean projections are eerily close to one another, though there is no denying that the wider range of plausible outcomes certainly sits with Smith-Njigba.
Jayden Reed | GB (at LAR)
The Packers have a receiver room loaded with talent, but, at this point, it’s safe to say that everyone is fighting for the WR2 role next to Reed as opposed to a full WR committee situation. Through four weeks, he leads the position in production over expectation (+82.9%) and has too versatile a skill set to be taken away by any one defensive scheme.
Need proof? How about a 24-yard catch and a rush attempt in Love’s first drive back from a two-week absence? Managers were fortunate to get the touchdown last week against the Vikings (Green Bay likely punch in a six-inch touchdown with Josh Jacobs if not for a Matt LaFleur personal foul that moved the ball back to the 15-yard line and resulted in Reed’s score), but the connection with Love is nothing short of special.
From a nerdy standpoint, Green Bay’s willingness to pound Jacobs should thrill managers with Reed rostered. When Love is under center, Reed’s production in play-action situations looks like a typo:
- 20 targets
- 17 catches
- 231 yards
- three touchdowns
The Rams have the fifth-lowest defensive success rate against the run – don’t be surprised if we get an NFL RedZone cutaway on Sunday to see Reed (my WR12 this week) streaking down the field.
Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. NYJ)
It feels like ages ago that we were concerned about Jefferson’s value due to the QB play in Minnesota. Jefferson is again averaging over 2.60 yards per route run and producing well above expectations on a per-target basis.
Plenty of things change across the NFL on an annual (and weekly, for that matter) basis, but Jefferson remains inevitable. His 14-yard touchdown against the Packers was defended to perfection, and it simply didn’t matter. This offense currently ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation, something that should calm any minor fears you may have about a fully healthy Jordan Addison now or down the road when T.J. Hockenson returns.
Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (at HOU)
Was last week an appetizer? Keon Coleman made a few nice plays (3-51-0) and left points on the field by dropping another chunk play. Now, the second-round pick gets the ideal spot for a breakout performance.
Coleman’s profile
- aDOT: 15.1 yards
- Houston’s defense: 13.3 aDOT to opposing WRs, highest in the league
- Houston’s defense: 7.8% WR touchdown rate, fifth highest in the league
Coleman hasn’t been weighed down with opportunities this season, but in his limited looks, he has produced 37.4% over expectation.
This is the first week in which I have the rookie ranked as my top Buffalo receiver. Coleman is a viable Flex play and a strong bring-back option for DFS players looking to stack up the Texans’ pass game.
Keon Coleman was a basketball player and 48 foot triple jumper at Opelousas Catholic HS. Translating those attributes to the football field on this play.pic.twitter.com/SWTV6vf9sd
— Brian Spilbeler (@CoachSpil) September 30, 2024
Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at SF)
The rookie is a pretty clear start given the early flashes we see every week. It’s been mental warfare up to this point — Harrison is scripted high-value looks early, makes good on them, and then disappears.
- Quarter 1: 50.7 points, 133.4% over expectation
- Rest of the game: 12.6 points, 54.6% below expectation
The previous high, since 2000, for a rookie in first quarters through four weeks was Hollywood Brown (38.7 PPR points). If you strictly gave him his first-quarter production over the course of 17 full games, he’d finish the season with 153 catches for 3,009 yards and 68 touchdowns.
That would be nice, wouldn’t it?
Despite the flashes, Harrison has just one finish better than WR19 on his NFL report card up to this point. I like that to change sooner than later – he’s a top-10 play for me this week, a ranking that came without much hesitation at all.
Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at JAX)
On the Colts’ first play from scrimmage last week, Richardson found Pittman for a 32-yard gain, a sight for sore eyes (Weeks 1-3: 29.3 receiving yards per game).
The duo hooked up for a 28-yard gain on the next series, and those of us who were hyping up Pittman this preseason were grinning from ear to ear. The two plays were nice to see, but with Richardson leaving shortly thereafter, we still don’t really have much evidence that his style can mesh with Pittman’s consistently.
With Flacco inserted into the lineup, Pittman was winning short-range targets on his way to his ninth career 100-yard effort. I do not doubt that Indy’s WR1 can succeed with a veteran under center (in Flacco’s last six appearances: 60% of his TD passes have come less than 10 yards downfield and one-third come less than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage), but this team clearly wants to get a grasp for what Richardson brings to the table.
Regardless of who starts at QB this week, I’m willing to bite on what we saw last week and plug in Pittman as my WR2. The Jags are allowing a league-high 6.3 yards per catch after receptions to receivers this season (no other defense is north of 5.5), a matchup I’ll gamble on as opposed to praying on backup quarterbacks figuring out how to get the ball to Tyreek Hill.
Nico Collins | HOU (vs. BUF)
Is Collins poised to be the best receiver in fantasy?
He was one of the five most efficient WRs across numerous metrics last season, and the league leader in receiving yardage hasn’t taken even a half step backward this season. In Week 4, Stroud completed all three of his passes on the first drive, and Collins caught all of them for 49 yards.
This offense has been geared toward getting its star involved in scoring situations (Stroud missed him on an end-zone look last week, that coming after he landed out of bounds on an end-zone fade earlier in the game and another instance in which he was held in the painted area), giving him an elite ceiling/floor profile.
The Bills are as stingy as any team in the league on perimeter passes (45% completion rate, 18.6 points below league average, with four interceptions against just one touchdown), and maybe that caps Collins’ upside this week, but he is a lineup lock that is capable of beating average defensive scheme due to his physical tools and Stroud’s willingness to put him in a position to make plays.
Rashid Shaheed | NO (at KC)
Not all growth is linear. Rashid Shaheed has been a downfield threat since entering the league, and those highlights produce the ceiling games that we love from him. However, after four weeks, I’m more encouraged by the “how” his three top-25 performances have occurred.
This season, Shaheed’s target rate is higher when Derek Carr is pressured (29%) than when not (25%), which wasn’t even close to being true through two seasons (11.2% compared to 20.6%).
In Week 4, Shaheed earned a pair of end-zone targets inside the 10-yard line. For the season, his first-quarter on-field target share is 36.4%, which is leaps and bounds ahead of his 22.4% number from a year ago.
CARR TO SHAHEED 70 YARDS 🔥
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GV0MW5cduw— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Most teams have a burner who can threaten defenses vertically, but few have a player like Shaheed who owns that trait while developing in this fashion. I have him ranked inside of my top 30 at the position this week (I think he’s a version of George Pickens with more stability under center).
It’s early, but the deep passer rating allowed by the Chiefs is 41.7 points higher than it was a season ago.
Stefon Diggs | HOU (vs. BUF)
For the second time in three weeks, Stefon Diggs gets a revenge spot. And if this one goes anything like the first (10-94-0 during the Week 3 blowout loss to the Vikings), fantasy managers will be thrilled.
Diggs had a productive Week 4 against the Jaguars (69 receiving yards and a rushing touchdown on what looked like a play designed for Diggs to throw the ball) and is off to a great start in Houston with more top-15 finishes this season than CeeDee Lamb.
I do think Diggs is a sell-high candidate; I’d just hold off on pulling off such a deal until after this week. He’s a fine WR2 in all formats this week, ranking ahead of top targets in Miami, Cleveland, and Carolina.
Tee Higgins | CIN (vs. BAL)
Higgins earned 10 targets last week in the win over the Panthers but was only able to muster 12 PPR fantasy points, an underwhelming performance given the volume (WR37 for the week).
The involvement was strong from the jump (he was responsible for five of Burrow’s first seven completions), and that’s enough to qualify for my top 30. However, the fact that he tailed off in such a good matchup is certainly concerning. We are only two games into his season, but checking in 37.1% below point expectation while this passing game is clicking is something I’m certainly keeping an eye on.
If you want to see a player who has been hit or miss in recent matchups, this is your guy. In his last three healthy games against the Ravens:
- Week 2, 2023: 36 routes, eight catches, 89 yards, two TDs
- Week 18, 2022: 43 routes, one catch, seven yards
- Week 16, 2021: 44 routes, 12 catches, 149 yards, two TDs
If you’re going to plug in Higgins ahead of players with similar upside cases like Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. IND) or Xavier Worthy (vs. NO), you have to do so with eyes wide open when it comes to the full profile. I’m playing him where I have him and feel that my starting lineup offers a high floor.
Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs. CLE)
For the first time since Weeks 14-15 in 2019, McLaurin has scored in consecutive weeks. He’s been a top-20 receiver in both of those games, nice growth for a player that wasn’t a top-35 option in either of the first two weeks and something I like to sustain moving forward.
Through four weeks, McLaurin is already halfway to matching his end-zone target count from last season and is producing 19.7% over expectation (2023: 4% below expectation).
Maybe the league will adjust to Daniels with time and slow down what is a historic pace, but until then, you’ll be able to find McLaurin inside of my top 20 consistently.
Tyreek Hill | MIA (at NE)
Hill spoke about a “crazy game plan” ahead of Huntley’s first start. At some level, he was right — he had more targets (four) than receiving yards (three) in the first half, something most fantasy managers would label as “crazy.”
He led the team in targets during Monday night’s disaster, so that’s a plus. He also had a pair of deep targets that didn’t miss by much (one underthrown and another overthrown by Huntley).
In theory, those deep shots have a potential to hit, and that keeps Hill inside of my top 30 at the position, but the risk outweighs the reward if you have nice depth at the position (Hill hasn’t been a top-45 receiver in a game since posting a WR3 finish in Week 1).
This week, Hill checks in as WR24 for me, just behind Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson, two receivers trending in a much more positive direction.
Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at SEA)
Initially, a player who averages fewer than 50 receiving yards per game, hasn’t made a catch for more than 20 yards, and has recently scored the third-fewest points in a game with 11+ receptions doesn’t seem very appealing.
But with PPR being the standard scoring format across most websites, Robinson’s pacing for 110.5 receptions this season lands him squarely in the Flex discussion every week. That will only be more true as we enter the portion of the schedule that involves navigating bye weeks.
Robinson was targeted on five of Jones’ first eight throws in last week’s loss and caught all of them — for a whopping 34 yards.
The season heat map is exactly what you’d expect from a player with a 4.8-yard aDOT (average depth of target) on the season. While it’s rarely exciting, it’s also rarely a letdown in an offense that is playing from behind with regularity (trailing for 64.4% of their offensive snaps through the first month).
Say what you will about Jones, but his completion percentage on short passes sits at 75.8% since the beginning of last season, a nice tick up from 70% in his career prior and a stabilizing force behind Robinson’s weekly value. He’s again a viable Flex play, even if you don’t want to admit it.
Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. NO)
I understand the desire to vault Xavier Worthy up your rest of season rankings, but with limited defensive attention, he’s managed to earn just 15 targets on 104 routes (14.4%, a rate that ranks behind Jonathan Mingo and Chris Conley this season).
That’s not to say Worthy can’t succeed. He very obviously can make the most of low usage (his first target last week resulted in a 54-yard touchdown, all of which were yards gained in the air). However, the ability to win targets is only going to get more difficult without Rashee Rice attracting attention.
Worthy has seen an end-zone target in three of four games this season. Yet, in a tough matchup, I have him sitting just outside of my top 30 wide receivers. Worthy isn’t the deep-ball-oriented receiver in this game I have ranked highest, and he falls below the boredom line (Wan’Dale Robinson and Khalil Shakir own elevated floors that I prefer in Week 5).
Zay Flowers | BAL (at CIN)
This passing game as a whole hasn’t seen much volume lately with the Ravens cruising, and that has left Flowers’ manager wanting more.
Way more.
The only receiver in this offense that I believe is worthy of a roster spot has turned in consecutive weekly finishes outside of the top 60, a lack of production that has all but doomed your matchups (trust me, I’m well aware). Flowers has run a total of 33 routes across those two games, well down from the 42.5 he averaged per game through the first two weeks.
Sadly, this is part of the math with Henry. With a bell-cow back like that who is capable of dominating the game, struggles in the volume department are a part of doing business. Hang in there – we are still talking about the unquestioned top target in an elite offense in a prime spot.
I have no real concerns about going back to Flowers as a WR2 and would consider him a strong buy for those looking to get aggressive in the trade market.
Which Wide Receivers Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 5?
Alec Pierce | IND (at JAX)
Pierce is a complicated player with an ultra-simple outlook this week. If Richardson is active, you consider Flexing him. If not, you don’t.
Opponents have completed 15 of 25 attempts for 437 yards and three touchdowns (zero interceptions) when throwing deep against the Jaguars this season. If there was ever a matchup made for Pierce, this is it, but the math changes if the man responsible for getting him the ball does.
Quick-throw rates, 2024:
- Flacco: 61.5% (19th of 36 qualifiers)
- Richardson: 42.9% (36th of 36 qualifiers)
Those numbers shouldn’t be the least bit surprising. Richardson is an athlete who can throw the ball to the moon while Flacco is a veteran who survives on savvy and timing.
If Richardson clears all hurdles, Pierce will push just ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and into my top 30 at the position. If that’s not the case, he’ll be fighting to stay inside of my top 50. Stay tuned – Pierce already has two top-20 finishes and two of WR60 or worse on his 2024 résumé.
Allen Lazard | NYJ (at MIN)
Allen Lazard continues to be a comfort blanket for Aaron Rodgers, and while that makes him valuable to the Jets, I’m not sure it means much in our game.
As Mike Williams works his way close to full strength (New York told us this preseason that they were going to treat his recovery like they did Breece Hall’s last season, ramping him up throughout September before getting him close to a full-time role as the middle of the season approached), Lazard’s role has changed, and it’s hurting his fantasy upside.
- Weeks 1-2: 11.2 aDOT
- Weeks 3-4: 5.5 aDOT
Lazard was interfered with in the end zone last week, and if he can’t score, he can’t help you (47.4% of his points this season have come on touchdowns). I’d keep him rostered if, for no other reason than a connection with Rodgers gives him TD-vulture potential.
However, counting on anything close to weekly value is dangerous. Lazard sits comfortably outside of my top 40 this week.
Andrei Iosivas | CIN (vs. BAL)
The artist known as “Yoshi” was able to hold value early in the season due to a role left vacant by Higgins and the ability to earn looks in scoring positions. With Burrow playing well, a third receiver could hold value in this offense, but I’m not sold on this offense being designed to support an option playing alongside Chase and Higgins.
In Week 4, Iosivas was on the field for a season-low 74.2% of snaps and earned just a single target on 25 routes (Weeks 1-3: one target for every six routes). With bye weeks now upon us, you can safely move on from the pride of Princeton, earmarking him as a potential add should an injury occur ahead of him on this depth chart.
Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs. IND)
Malik Nabers’ excellence and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s splash plays have masked what BTJ is doing – he’s been a top-25 producer at the position in three of four weeks this season. While I love the player, he does boast some limitations on the route-running front, and I fear that this is a tough matchup for a player like that.
The Colts are one of five defenses that have yet to allow a deep touchdown pass, and if we remove that upside from Thomas’ profile, he’s a risky Flex at best. I do expect this passing game to have some success, I’m just not sure it comes courtesy of their future WR1…
Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs. LV)
Courtland Sutton was the focal point of a low-octane offense from the jump last week (targeted on the first two passes) and finished with 100% of Denver’s receiving yards — on his way to a WR3 finish in Week 4.
Not WR3 overall — WR3, as in outside of the top 24 pass catchers.
Of course, the weather and a brutal matchup played into that, but if that rate of involvement is going to bear that little fruit, ranking Sutton inside the top 30 at the position feels a bit aggressive.
This week, and until further notice, he’s going to hover in that WR35-40 range with names like Darnell Mooney and Michael Wilson, two players with a lower target share but more upside by way of their respective signal-callers.
Demarcus Robinson | LAR (vs. GB)
Robinson saw seven targets in the season opener but hasn’t earned more than four looks in a game since. His routes have been slowly ticking down, which makes him a tough bet in any format, with the Packers ranking in the top quarter of the NFL in time of possession and the Rams ranking in the bottom quarter.
In theory, the 18.2 aDOT comes with preloaded upside, but with Green Bay owning a low blitz rate, I’m not comfortable in Robinson exposing single coverage for the type of spike play that it requires to make him a viable option.
Greg Dortch | ARI (at SF)
For a player that has yet to reach 50 receiving yards or find the end zone, Dortch continually grades out higher for me than most, something that is again the case this week.
For me, Dortch is the way to bet cheap on this Cardinals offense, and with bye weeks upon us, sometimes that’s what you’re looking for. Through four weeks, 71.1% of Dortch’s routes have come from the slot, and the 49ers happen to own the fourth-highest opponent passer rating when throwing to that spot on the field (24-of-30 for 391 yards).
Given the efficiency of the targets Dortch earns, I give him a good chance to reach double figures in PPR points this week in a matchup where the game script figures to lean in his favor.
Ja’Lynn Polk | NE (vs. MIA)
The rookie saw seven targets last week after totaling just six through his first three games and had a 21-yard reception, his first play gaining more than seven yards. He has NFL ability, and I think we will see more of that once Drake Maye takes over, but in redraft leagues, there’s no reason to bet on this Patriots offense.
Against the 49ers last Sunday, 29.8% of their passing yards came on a single play. This offense has as little week-to-week upside as any in the league and is an avoid at all costs.
Jakobi Meyers | LV (at DEN)
Meyers saw 41.7% of the targets last week against the Browns with Adams watching, and while that exact role is going to be difficult to repeat, he certainly could see the 30-35% that Adams routinely did when healthy for this team.
Of course, a high volume of looks like that in an offense with average-to-below-average QB play will come with missed opportunities (Minshew missed him down the left sideline on Sunday in what could have been a chunk of play with a reasonable pass). That will be irritating as you watch the games, but I’m happy to deal with that if it means a high volume of looks.
For his career, Meyers averages 15.6 PPR points per game when seeing at least 26.5% of the targets, which feels safe to assume in the short term. Most weeks, Meyers will be pushing for Flex value in my rankings, but with Patrick Surtain II possibly shadowing this week (the Broncos surrender the third-fewest yards per pass, 5.6), I’d rather roll the dice on a receiver like Dontayvion Wicks with Jordan Love back.
Jalen Nailor | MIN (vs. NYJ)
After scoring in three straight games to open the season, Nailor saw his snap share plummet to just 21.9% against the Packers. He was able to make a big play (31 yards) on 3rd-and-long, the type of play that will keep him on the field when this team goes to three-receiver sets, but outside of that, there just isn’t room in this offense for a third pass catcher.
Read that last sentence again — that’s why I worry about Addison when Hockenson returns. It was a nice run for Nailor, and congratulations to you if you capitalized, but with Addison proving his health on Sunday, you can safely move on.
Jauan Jennings | (SF (vs. ARI)
Jauan Jennings is a better player than most give him credit for. I’m not suggesting that he will lead a healthy version of San Francisco’s passing game in targets (six) and receiving yards (88) like he did last week, but his standing as the game’s best receiver handcuff is legitimate.
I suspect that Brandon Aiyuk will round into form with time, and Deebo Samuel Sr. is featured in the short passing game, making Jennings a tough weekly sell when both are active, even in this uber-efficient offense.
That said, Jenning has done more than enough to remain on rosters.
Week 4 routes run
- Brandon Aiyuk: 27
- Deebo Samuel: 25
- George Kittle: 24
- Jauan Jennings: 20
- Kyle Juszczyk: 18
- Jordan Mason: 16
This talented team simply features the best matchup. Sometimes, that’ll be Jennings, but usually, it won’t.
Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at WAS)
My guess is that you’re unaware of Jeudy’s involvement this season.
Players 25 or younger with 6+ targets in all four weeks:
- CeeDee Lamb
- Justin Jefferson
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Nico Collins
- Garrett Wilson
- Malik Nabers
- Jeudy
That’s not a bad list to be a part of. I understand that the production hasn’t been close to the elites on this list, but he’s been worse than WR31 just once this season, and that means he’s been a viable option consistently.
In September, 12.2% of receiver targets against the Commanders resulted in touchdowns (NFL average: 4.8%), making this a matchup to target. The Browns rank fourth in pass rate over expectation thus far.
Watson’s inconsistencies under center are a concern, which is why I have receivers like Khalil Shakir and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranked a touch higher than Jeudy this week. However, there is some Flex appeal in this profile, and I will regularly click Jeudy’s name in DFS this weekend.
Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at NE)
Jaylen Waddle has one top-30 finish this season, and with Miami looking for answers under center, why would we expect that to change until we see tangible proof?
If the quality of targets is going to be an issue, we need single-play potential to even be remotely interested in this offense.
Week 4 target depth
- Tyreek Hill: 18.1 yards
- Jaylen Waddle: 5.7 yards
On the bright side, the Patriots have allowed the third-most short completions in the league this season (77), and Tyler Huntley completed 12 of 15 of those passes last week. On the less bright side, it’s going to take consistency from the backup QB to justify playing Waddle — that is not something we saw on Monday night.
Waddle is my WR40 this week, ranking behind options like Dontayvion Wicks and Jerry Jeudy.
Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. NYJ)
How you view Jordan Addison’s profile tells you a lot about who you are as a fantasy manager. Are you an optimist or a realist?
My guess is that you read that and assumed that there was a “right” or “preferred” option to that question. That, because I’m the number-crunching type, I’d encourage you to take the realist approach.
Wrong.
Fantasy leagues can be won in a variety of ways. The most certain way to lose is to be unaware of who you are as a manager.
If you skew on the optimistic side of things, a player like Addison is one you should target. In his return from the ankle injury, he caught a 29-yard touchdown against the Packers (average career TD reception length: 29.5 yards) and was handed the ball on a jet sweep resulting in another score.
Players rarely sustain the type of scoring rate that Addison currently has (12 scores on 78 career touches). Yet, maybe we’re looking at a high-pedigree receiver destined to do special things. If that’s what you believe, you can probably acquire his services cheaper than you’d assume.
If you’re like me and believe that regression to the mean is close to inevitable, you’re using Addison’s Week 4 stat line as an excuse to move on. No Jaire Alexander for Green Bay last week resulted in some odd coverage responsibilities, which allowed Addison to thrive. But I do think his value is more likely to decline moving forward than grow.
The target ceiling is only so high. What if Sam Darnold regresses? What if Jalen Nailor has earned himself more run? What if T.J. Hockenson returns in a month and walks into a 6-8 target role?
This is a tough matchup against a slow-moving team. Addison isn’t a top-40 receiver for me this weekend, and that could lower his value in the trade market if you elect to wait to test the waters.
Josh Downs | IND (at JAX)
Downs caught a touchdown pass from Flacco last week while leading the team in both catches (eight) and targets (nine) in the upset win over the Steelers. He was in the slot for 82.5% of his naps and had no trouble winning on those timing routes against one of the best defenses in the sport.
It was good to see Downs flex this muscle, but does it matter? If Richardson is under center, sustaining a single short-yardage target was a struggle, making Downs a roster afterthought. That said, we now have proof of concept for a Flacco-led unit.
I’m stashing Downs if I have the roster space in PPR leagues and treating him as a handcuff where an injury is needed for him to truly be of any interest.
Justin Watson | KC (vs. NO)
The route counts from Week 4 might not prove to be exactly how Kansas City goes about replacing Rice, but they are data points that should be acknowledged, as it was how the team elected to adapt on the fly.
Routes run in Week 4:
- Travis Kelce: 32
- Xavier Worthy: 29
- Justin Watson: 25
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 18
- Noah Gray: 11
- Mecole Hardman: 7
- Skyy Moore: 4
When the Chiefs wanted a slot option next to Kelce, Smith-Schuster was the play (10 slot routes), while Watson got the nod when a perimeter threat was wanted (16 routes out wide). I like Watson to be on the field, which makes him roster worthy. That said, you can’t consider starting him until we get some proof of concept.
Watson has reached double digits in terms of PPR points just once in 10 career games in which he has played at least 65% of snaps (Week 4: 69% snap share). Forecasting him to do so against a Saints defense that has allowed just one touchdown toss on 165 opponent dropbacks this season isn’t wise.
Cheap exposure to a piece tied to Mahomes is a logical desire; I’d just caution against putting the cart before the horse.
Keenan Allen | CHI (vs. CAR)
Allen returned from a two-game absence after missing two games with a heel injury and managed just 4.9 PPR points in the win over the Rams. He wasn’t far from a much more successful day at the offense, as he drew a passer interference penalty in the end zone, but alas, Allen has yet to return a usable week this season.
I have both he and Odunze ranked just outside of my top 35 at the position — I have hopes that one will separate from the other with time, but I’m not overly confident in Flexing either just yet, even in a plus-matchup.
Luke McCaffrey | WAS (vs. CLE)
I want to believe in McCaffrey, especially given how efficient this offense currently is, but I completely forgot he was playing for three quarters in a game where Washington was marching up and down the field.
Olamide Zaccheaus led the Commanders in receiving yards last week, while Noah Brown set a season-high in targets. After trading away Jahan Dotson, my theory on elevating McCaffrey in my ranks was that a rookie QB would be consuming the comfort targets that a player like him projected for.
I’m not sure I was wrong on McCaffrey’s evaluation — Daniels is simply too good to be limited in the ways that I assumed. McCaffrey doesn’t need to be held onto.
Michael Wilson | ARI (at SF)
Trust the process. Young receivers can take time to develop and you owe it to yourself to flag growth when you see it, and that is where we currently stand with Wilson.
- Weeks 1-2: four targets on 54 routes (7.4%)
- Weeks 3-4: 16 targets on 59 routes (27.1%)
The 49ers allow the fourth-most yards per completion (12.1), a defensive flaw that could allow Wilson to break out in this spot, much like he did in Week 4 last season (7-76-2) against San Francisco.
In that big performance, Wilson caught every one of his targets while his teammates hauled in just 61.8% of their looks from Josh Dobbs. He only has one top-40 performance this season, and that makes Flexing him with confidence a bit difficult. But if you’re missing a few options due to injuries or bye weeks, I could see calling his number.
Wilson is my WR37, ranking him in the Darnell Mooney and Dontayvion Wicks neighborhood.
Mike Williams | NYJ (vs. MIN)
Patience gets rewarded with time, and I think this applies to those who stick with Williams through this ramp-up phase. His target count and yards-per-route-run rate have improved each week this season, and a gorgeous sideline catch on Sunday that helped extend a drive at the end of the first half is exactly the type of play that can help a physically gifted receiver like Williams earn the trust of his signal-caller.
We aren’t there yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if I ranked Williams as a player in the Flex conversation for the second half of this season.
Rashod Bateman | BAL (at CIN)
The Bateman hype this preseason always felt like a trap, and with his yardage total declining each week this season (53-40-28-23), his time as a flier at the end of your bench has come to an end. This offense is struggling to provide any pass catchers with weekly value, and Bateman is pretty clearly the fourth option at best.
His 14.9 aDOT would seemingly point to some upside. I’m not buying it. Jackson’s average depth of throw sits at a career-low 6.6 yards, something that appears destined to be sustained as Todd Monken works in his quick-hitting offense for a second season. Bateman holds a role for the Ravens – it just doesn’t translate in the least for us.
Rome Odunze | CHI (vs. CAR)
The role simply isn’t there for Odunze right now. The rookie has failed to produce 10 expected PPR points in three of four games this season, and with a 21.5-yard aDOT over the past two weeks, he’s settling into a one-trick pony role in an offense that is having trouble supporting anyone with consistency.
Dynasty managers can use the growth shown by Williams to fuel their long-term outlook for Odunze, but redraft managers need to be real with themselves and admit that this talented rookie isn’t close to lineup consideration right now.
Romeo Doubs | GB (at LAR)
The third-year receiver has 15 targets across Love’s two starts this season and impressed with eight scores last year. Doubs was heavily involved in the first half of Week 4’s loss to the Vikings (29.2% target share with a near touchdown) but was a pretty clear fourth option in the second half as Green Bay attempted to storm all the way back.
With Watson dinged up, there’s one fewer mouth to feed and, thus, a clearer path to Doubs receiving opportunities in scoring position that we know he is capable of paying off. That said, reports have surfaced this week about Doubs being unhappy with his role on the team and skipping practices.
He will be inactive for Week 5. In light of the Packers’ decision to suspend Doubs for conduct detrimental to the team, this is a situation that demands monitoring. Bo Melton is the stash to make ahead of Week 5 — not only will he be in for extended reps, but he could have a lasting role on this offense if Watson and Doubs aren’t active for the coming weeks.
Tank Dell | HOU (vs. BUF)
After a rookie season filled with splash plays, Dell has found the sledding far more difficult in 2024, and that was before a chest injury that, while not suggested to be a long-term issue, did cost him Week 4.
Dell’s next top-40 finish at the position this season will be his first, fueling my concern that what we saw from him last season may have been aberrational. His size profile was always going to be something to overcome, and it’s proving to be a problem.
Dell’s usage patterns aren’t drastically different than a season ago (a minor uptick in slot snaps has resulted in a manageable decline in average depth of target), but he’s simply struggling to win.
As a rookie, Dell was targeted on 23.4% of the snaps in which he was on the field and racked up 2.22 yards per route run, strong numbers that don’t happen by accident over a 319-route sample size. Thus far in 2024, however, his target rate has slipped to 16.2%, and his yards-per-route-run number has tanked to 0.94.
See what I did there? Dell’s numbers “tanked.” Who says math guys can’t be artists with a pen?
In theory, more slot snaps are a good thing for this specific matchup, but he’s still pretty clearly Houston’s preferred perimeter option next to Collins (13-7 target edge over Diggs when lined up wide in Weeks 1-3). That subjects Dell, assuming health, to the same concerns I brought up in Collins’ profile.
For me, the case for Dell is pretty straightforward — wait and see. This injury, along with limited success, means you have to be patient and hope that the upside from 2023 reappears down the stretch when the Texans are going to be pushed to score in bunches (Weeks 15-17: Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens).
Houston doesn’t go on bye until Week 14, meaning that Dell will have to work through this injury without the benefit of an off week. He’s a clear hold in all formats (trading him for pennies on the dollar right now is poor practice). Your goal is to win the war, even if it means losing some early battles.
Tre Tucker | LV (at DEN)
Tucker was on the field for 85.5% of Vegas’ offensive snaps last week and filled the short route role, earning six targets that totaled just 35 air yards. He threw a nice block on DJ Turner’s touchdown, and little things like that earned him an increased role this season, even before Adams’ injury.
However, Tucker is of more value to the Raiders than fantasy managers.
We’ve seen the third option struggle to get fed in explosive offenses (Jameson Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season, players like Xavier Worthy and Tank Dell this season), and I think it’s safe to call this Raiders offense “less than explosive.”
Add Tucker if you’d like to take a short-term flier, but it’s a long shot that he’ll ever flirt with your starting lineup.
Tutu Atwell | LAR (vs. GB)
He may only stand 5’9”, but Atwell has been able to make a few splash plays given his extended role, and that’s been enough to justify him being added in most leagues.
I don’t hate it.
Atwell has cleared 80 receiving yards in consecutive games and now faces the second-worst defense in terms of yards per completion allowed (12.3, NFL average: 10.6). That stat is tied to Green Bay consistently being attacked downfield (third-highest opponent aDOT when targeting the WR position), a spot where we’ve seen Atwell win on occasion.
The looks have been limited, but Atwell has produced 32.4% over expectation this season, ranking him 10th of 72 qualifiers. I don’t have him ranked as a top-40 option because I fear that the Packers control this game. However, if the Rams are playing from behind for the majority of the afternoon, there is a path where Atwell makes the most of a deep look or two.
Tyler Lockett | SEA (vs. NYG)
The veteran receiver remains heavily involved (at least seven targets in three of four games this season), but without a touchdown or a 30-yard gain on his ledger, Lockett is firmly off of my Flex radar. Supporting three receivers and a running back is a tall task for any offense, especially if they control the game at the level that the spread would suggest.
Lockett still has some juice, and I don’t doubt that he’ll make chunk plays now and again this season, but I’m going to struggle to ever get him inside of my top 40 (he’s finished outside of the top 40 on three occasions this season) given the depth at the position (he’s currently ranked in the same tier as Jerry Jeudy and Jordan Addison).
Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at CHI)
With Adam Thielen sidelined, Xavier Legette was targeted on Carolina’s fifth play from scrimmage (12-yard reception), and he led Panthers receivers last week with an 85.7% snap share.
The role Legette filled on Sunday was that of an underneath option (9.4 average depth of target compared to Diontae Johnson’s 15.0) against the Bengals, which is good for his long-term outlook.
That said, I’m not tempting fate and plugging Legette in this week. There are plenty of other options at the position who offer a higher-ceiling case than Legette against a Bears defense that has allowed a score on just 1.5% of receiver targets, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Carolina’s rookie is a DFS-only play for the time being. However, he should be universally rostered because of his role and the upside that Andy Dalton has infused this offense with.