The WR start/sit debates can rage for hours and, often, the longer you think about it, the more difficult they become. Fantasy football managers who attempt to take the emotion out of it and evaluate the data are the ones who tend to have the most success. At the very least, you have a consistent process to fall back on — or you can choose to rely on me.
Many like that option. I’ll take the blame if it goes sideways, and you can victory lap otherwise!
What should you make of the fringe options at the position this week? I’m glad you asked.
Data from TruMedia, unless stated
Which Wide Receivers Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 2?
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (at NE)
Seattle’s WR1 fell short of expectations, and the red flags are certainly there. I don’t doubt that the physical ability is still very much there, but is he in a position to turn those gifts into fantasy points?
Their game with the Broncos was a one-score game for roughly 80% of the minutes, and the Seahawks told us what they thought of their passing game – they finished with eight more rushes than passes. Plain and simple, that doesn’t happen in 2024 if you’re confident in your quarterback.
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Metcalf saw only four passes thrown his way and recorded the fourth-lowest expected PPR point total of his career. We’ve seen his targets per route trend down since Smith took over this offense, and they get less comfortable with him in the slot every season, something that leads to fewer layup targets and a greater reliance on splash plays.
That’s a dangerous game to play. I have him in the Amari Cooper range of my rankings this week (low-end WR2), and I think that is where he is likely to live as the WR1 in a passing offense I don’t trust.
Against a stingy Patriots defense, I don’t think this is an explosive bounce-back spot. Due to his size and athleticism, a big game, at some point, is borderline inevitable, and when we get that, I’m selling Metcalf to the highest bidder.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (vs. LAR)
Ja’Marr Chase is the only top-10 pick WR over the past 20 years to reach 75 yards in his debut, so if you’re asking me if I’m worried about this uber-prospect finishing his first NFL game with four yards on three targets, the answer is a resounding no.
I don’t know about you, but I didn’t leave Los Angeles’ season opener with confidence that their defense was anything but ordinary. Their pressure rate dropped from 32.1% last season to 26.9% in their first game of this post-Aaron Donald world – I’ll take my chances on this Murray/Harrison connection looking better with a full game of live reps under their belt and a clean pocket from which to work.
I’m not pivoting. Harris was a top-15 receiver for me last week and occupies the same title this week. You drafted him as a pure talent bet, and I’m willing to double down, especially in a game that I think sees plenty of points put on the board.
#TrustTheProcess.
Which Wide Receivers Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 2?
George Pickens, Chicago Bears (at HOU)
There is a lot of talent bubbling beneath the surface for Pickens. The question is if the QB play can elevate him to a meaningful space for our purposes.
I’m not shedding light on anything new by saying that – it just is what it is.
Over the course of an entire NFL game in 2024 — against a defense that ranked below average in opponent passer rating last season — Pickens was the only Steelers target with a catch that gained more than 10 yards.
Think about that. The Patriots-Bengals game may have been the most boring from an offensive point of view last weekend, and six players in that game had a catch gaining more than 10 yards.
In theory, you’d think that Pickens is a better fit for a Wilson-led offense. From a deep ball perspective, that makes sense, but I’d give a Fields-led unit more scoring equity, so I’m not sure who is under center makes a big difference for Pickens.
The Broncos didn’t give up a 20-yard completion to any of the Seahawks’ receivers last week. Both WR1s in this game project as high-upside players that will have big weeks this year, but I’m not comfortable plugging either in this week over talented young players like Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, or Brian Thomas Jr.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (vs. LAC)
Johnson is the East Coast version of Ladd McConkey. That’s not meant to be disrespectful to the veteran — I view his skill set as superior, but he’s facing an uphill battle when it comes to the quarterback situation.
Johnson ran two fewer routes but earned two more targets than Adam Thielen in his Carolina debut. That has me firm in my belief that he’s the WR1 in the Panthers’ offense. Of course, the value of that title is very much a question.
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Six times. A Panthers receiver reached 10 PPR fantasy points in just six games last season. There isn’t nearly enough juice to squeeze from this offense in any capacity at the moment. I’m open to the idea of this unit improving with time and maybe, maybe, landing Johnson on PPR Flex radars with time.
But not right now. There are 31 other offenses you can invest in, and I’d recommend you take that approach. Just one-third of Johnson’s snaps came in the slot last season, a further complicating factor in his floor case (Thielen: 69% slot) as those are where even the bad offenses can be efficient.
Canales’ résumé requires us to keep Johnson rostered from a process standpoint, but I’d be lying if I said that I’m doing so with much confidence.