Since the Minnesota Vikings selected him in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Alexander Mattison has often been known by those outside the Vikings organization and Vikings fandom as one of the premier handcuffs in fantasy football.
Why? Because he’s primarily played one role since he joined the NFL: Dalvin Cook’s backup. With Cook cemented as the full-time starter and full-fledged bell cow, snaps have been scarce for the former Boise State standout. So, with Mattison potentially hitting the open market this offseason, what value does he bring to a team, and will he be back in Minnesota?
Will the Minnesota Vikings Consider Bringing Back Alexander Mattison?
Though his box score production hasn’t lived up to his third-round billing, Mattison has been a valuable piece of the Vikings’ offense since being drafted by the team. He performed admirably in spot starts during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, racking up 90 or more yards on the ground in four of six starting appearances in place of an injured Cook.
Mattison is also a capable producer through the air. He hauled in 19 receptions for 162 yards across four starts in 2021. Over four total seasons, Mattison caught 70 receptions for 562 receiving yards despite his limited playing time.
Unfortunately for the 24-year-old RB, he’s heading to the open market coming off a down year. With Cook staying healthy enough to start all 17 regular season games, Mattison rushed a career-low 74 times for a career-low 283 yards. Mattison was, however, rotated in for more goal-line situations this season, allowing him to reach a career-high five rushing touchdowns.
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Over the past two seasons, Mattison struggled with efficiency, falling short of four yards per carry in each of the past two years (3.7 in 2021, 3.8 in 2022). After reaching marks of 4.6 (2019) and 4.5 (2020) in each of his first two seasons, the downward trend in efficiency isn’t likely to help his case in looking for a substantial contract on the open market.
The interest will certainly be there, though. Prior to the 2022 season, Mattison garnered interest from several teams who inquired about trading for the backup ball carrier. Still under 25 years old and with barely over 400 career carries worth of tread off the tires, Mattison’s fresh legs and moderate production will be enough to entice some teams.
Will one of those teams be Minnesota? The team’s financial commitment to Cook and other options on the depth chart could get in the way of a reunion.
Alexander Mattison Contract Considerations
Most know by now that the running back market is among the toughest from the players’ perspective, especially given the shorter shelf life at the position. What does that mean for Mattison as he comes off his rookie contract with the open market awaiting?
Mattison’s Market Value
As a backup running back without a marquee breakout season to his name, Mattison is fighting an uphill battle if he’s hoping for a multi-year deal worth a substantial amount per season. Spotrac has Mattison’s market value projected at a one-year deal worth just over $2.2 million.
Frankly, that number feels a little low, especially given the impending rise of the NFL’s salary cap. But Mattison may find little wiggle room during negotiations for one key reason — the ridiculous number of talented running backs set to reach free agency this offseason.
Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, D’Onta Foreman, Jeff Wilson Jr., Devin Singletary, and Damien Harris are just some of the top names competing for those deals.
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Yes, that list has plenty of higher-end options. And though some of them may re-sign with their current teams, making the pool somewhat more shallow, the flood of talent on the market will hurt the negotiating leverage of a career backup like Mattison.
I’d be surprised if he earns much more than a player like Gus Edwards, a veteran who’s played the 1B to J.K. Dobbins’ 1A in the Baltimore RB rotation and earned a two-year, $9 million ($4.5 million per year) contract with the Ravens.
The Vikings, for their part, don’t have much room to work with. The team is currently set to be about $5 million over the salary cap in 2023. Though there’s space to improve that situation, re-signing a backup running back looking to cash in while he’s still in his prime may be a luxury Minnesota can’t afford. This is especially true when Cook is still producing at a high level and levying a $15 million cap hit of his own on the 2023 books.
Vikings Depth Chart, Options at RB
The Vikings may not even need to try to afford Mattison, given the current options on the team. Minnesota drafted Kene Nwangwu in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and he’s one of the most athletic ball carriers on the team. Nwangwu made the PFWA All-Rookie team due to his electric ability as a kick returner, and he could be someone the team is excited to finally let loose on the ground.
The Iowa State product has yet to see much run on offense, with just 22 attempts and seven targets over two seasons. However, that’s largely been due to the established duo of Cook and Mattison leading the depth chart. With Mattison heading to free agency, the team could look to Nwangwu to help fill the void.
The Vikings also have Ty Chandler, a 2022 fifth-round draft pick out of UNC who flashed playmaking ability during the preseason. Over three preseason contests, the rookie totaled 113 rushing yards on just 15 carries (7.53 ypc) and could compete with Nwangwu for the opportunity to back up Cook going forward.
With Minnesota’s stalwart running back reaching his age-29 campaign come September 2023, the young duo could become valuable contributors as soon as next season, especially if Mattison departs for another team in March.
