Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has been on the hot seat for quite some time, but it’s been particularly toasty lately. Entering Week 13, the Cowboys are 4-7 and currently in third place in the NFC East, so many fans are frustrated with the head coach.
Would Dallas fire McCarthy if he loses on Thanksgiving Day against the 2-9 New York Giants? Let’s examine McCarthy’s tenure in Dallas and why he’s on the hot seat.
Looking at Mike McCarthy’s Time in Dallas
Many wondered whether McCarthy would be fired after the team’s early playoff exit last season, but Cowboys owner Jerry Jones gave him another chance.
Despite an underwhelming offseason, Dallas entered the 2024 campaign with one of the NFL‘s most talented rosters on both sides of the ball. Also, the front office gave lucrative new contracts to quarterback Dak Prescott (four years, $240 million) and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (four years, $136 million).
The Cowboys started the season with a convincing win over the Cleveland Browns but lost their next two games. After consecutive wins against the Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas suffered a thoroughly embarrassing 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 6.
Jones stood by his head coach after the humiliating defeat, but McCarthy’s seat was warming. Many, including some franchise legends, were calling for McCarthy’s job.
“Fire everybody Jerry,” Dez Bryant, in a message to Jones, wrote on the X platform last month.
The Cowboys hoped they could reset during their bye week following the loss to Detroit. But they suffered a road loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7 and lost Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury during a loss to the Atlanta Falcons the following week.
With Cooper Rush under center, Dallas got blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles at home in Week 10.
In Week 11, the Cowboys were blown out by the Houston Texans, 34-10. Then, Dallas stopped the bleeding with a 34-26 win over the Washington Commanders in Week 12, ending their five-game losing streak.OVR: 27
OFF: 23
DEF: 24
The Cowboys currently grade out as 27th-best team in the league in Pro Football Network’s Power Ranking+ metric, ranking 24th in PFN’s Defense+ and 23rd in PFN’s Offense+.
Prescott’s hamstring injury — and Micah Parsons’ high-ankle sprain, for that matter — might give Jones a baked-in excuse not to execute an in-season firing, something he doesn’t like to do. In fact, just last week, Jones referenced firing Wade Phillips in 2010 after a 1-7 start.
“I changed coaches in the season with Wade and have always regretted it,” Jones said.
Unless his players start to quit on him or the season completely goes off the rails, McCarthy might be safe for the rest of the season. Regardless, an offseason firing seems increasingly likely for McCarthy, who went 12-5 in each of the last three seasons but is 1-3 in the playoffs during his Cowboys tenure. McCarthy is a good coach who actually has the 14th most wins of any coach in NFL history, but he hasn’t been able to get Dallas over the hump.
Can the Cowboys Make the Playoffs?
Dallas hasn’t officially been eliminated from the playoffs, but making the postseason is a long shot given the hole they have dug for themselves.
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Cowboys have a 3.5% chance of making the playoffs heading into Week 13.
Thanks to the 9-2 Philadelphia Eagles and 7-5 Commanders, Dallas has a <0.1% chance to win the NFC East.
If this is a lost season, can Dallas at least land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft? Unfortunately for fans who are interested in tanking, the Cowboys’ odds of selecting first overall are just 0.5% — even lower than their playoff chances.
Has McCarthy Been Fired Before?
If McCarthy is fired before the end of the campaign, that would be the second in-season firing of his career.
The Green Bay Packers fired him late in the 2018 season after a 4-7-1 start. McCarthy went 125-77-2 in his 12+ seasons in Green Bay, including a win over the Steelers in Super Bowl 45.
McCarthy had zero NFL head coaching experience before joining the Packers in 2006. If he were to be fired by the Cowboys, it would be fair to wonder whether he’d ever land another head coaching opportunity in the NFL.