Week 11 WR Start’ Em or Sit’ Em: Start-Sit Advice for Every Fantasy-Relevant Wide Receiver in Every Game

Week 11 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.

If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 11 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.

Alec Pierce | IND (at NYJ)

Alec Pierce’s final stat line (4-81-1) against the Bills was encouraging, and if you started him, congratulations.

Don’t count on it.

Not only was Joe Flacco far from consistent, but he didn’t get Pierce fed until the game was decided (33 yards and a touchdown came on the final drive of the one-sided contest). Garbage time isn’t something I expect to be a part of Sunday’s game against the Jets, making Pierce’s 22.5 aDOT for the season an auto-fade.

Through 10 weeks, the Jets are the ninth-best defense in terms of opponent deep completion percentage and the second-best at preventing deep touchdown passes. Pierce has yet to show the ability to consistently earn targets; in this spot, the risk far outweighs the slim chance that he connects on a splash play that earns him double-digit points.

Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. KC)

Amari Cooper has been a durable player across his decade in the league, but he’s now missed consecutive games with this wrist injury (matching his most missed games in a season for his career).

The situation in Buffalo is tough to handicap. Not only is Keon Coleman also banged up, but we’ve yet to see exactly how this team intends to use Cooper (33.3% of snaps in Week 7 and 50.7% in Week 8 prior to missing time). Combine all of that with a brutal matchup and the bye looming next week, I’m tentatively not planning on having Cooper in my Week 11 lineups.

Don’t take that the wrong way. I’m still awfully bullish on his outlook as the WR1 in Buffalo’s offense; you just might have to show a little more patience before experiencing the benefits.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs. JAX)

We praise Khalil Shakir’s efficiency in Buffalo but acknowledge his upside is limited. We love the floor he provides, even if it comes with the understanding that he is unlikely to post a week-altering fantasy point total.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the superhero version of Shakir. He’s scored in a franchise-record seven straight games, hauling in 40 of 43 targets over that stretch. Scoring streaks like this often come from an A.J. Brown type of profile, where he is producing highlight after highlight and benefiting from an elite volume that puts an athlete in a position to dominate.

Not for St. Brown. He’s winning in every single situation, and no defense has figured out how to come even close to slowing him down. In all seven games during this run, St. Brown has produced at least 30% over fantasy expectations. Detroit is getting whatever it wants, whenever it wants it with its WR1.

The list of receivers who could lead the position in fantasy points the rest of the way isn’t long, but it certainly has St. Brown’s name on it.

Andrei Iosivas | CIN (at LAC)

Andrei Iosivas has seen 17.1% of his targets come in the end zone this season, and that has resulted in him hanging onto rosters in many leagues, especially with Tee Higgins missing three straight games (quad). But you can safely move on.

In those three games, with an expanded role, Iosivas has caught three of 11 targets for 39 yards as a part of an offense that has scored 92 points. You were chasing touchdowns and an uptick in snaps. That was fine process-wise, but it hasn’t worked out, and there’s no reason to continue doubling down.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at DET)

I’m ignoring last week from a production standpoint because the Jaguars didn’t have the ball for even 18 minutes, something that rarely happens (it was the lowest time of possession contest this season by more than two full minutes). That limited our ability to truly evaluate what Jacksonville’s offense looks like under Mac Jones — but what we did see was repulsive.

For the day, Jones completed 14 of 22 passes for 111 yards with zero scores and two interceptions. We’ve seen receivers like Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton thrive recently despite spotty QB play, but I’m not sure Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be able to do something similar in this offense.

Again, tiny sample, but Gabe Davis earned more targets than BTJ last week, and it’s not as if the rookie has been a consistent force anyway (three games with north of 21 PPR points, and Sunday was his fourth single-digit effort). The talent is real and can be spectacular if given league-average QB play, but that doesn’t seem likely to come in 2024.

I currently have Thomas ranked as a fringe top-40 receiver — not a must-start by any means. In this matchup against an improving Lions defense, I’d rather roll the dice on Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA) or an equally inconsistent profile like Quentin Johnston who at least has more help under center.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs. MIN)

If you extend Calvin Ridley’s three games post-DeAndre Hopkins trade for a full season: 114 catches for 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns.

I’m not expecting him to continue that level of production, the quarterback play is simply too sporadic. But it seems that Tennessee’s offense is finally running through their most talented player.

The 16.3 aDOT is going to result in peaks and valleys, but with a target share north of 38% over this three-week run, the sheer volume can overcome signal-caller inconsistencies.

The Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase tandem creates special plays based on their connection while Amon-Ra St. Brown’s surgical route running is a pleasure to watch. Ridley with these Titans isn’t the greatest watch, but at the end of 60 minutes, I expect top-30 numbers to be there consistently for the remainder of the season.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (at NO)

Cedric Tillman has been on the field for over 80% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps over their past three games after failing to reach 40% in each of the first six weeks. And guess what the 6’3” 24-year-old has done with the opportunity?

• Three straight top-12 finishes
• One end-zone target in every game
• 140.8 air yards per game

That sort of production doesn’t happen by accident, and I don’t think it just dries up barring significant changes. That first note is something that CeeDee Lamb and Drake London have not accomplished this season.

I don’t have Tillman ranked as a WR1, but I have a hard time thinking you have three pass catchers who grade out better for me this week. That makes Cleveland’s budding star a starter across most, if not all, formats.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs. HOU)

Surprise Injury Development – Saturday, November 16
Lamb was added to the injury report Saturday with a back injury and is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest against the Texans.

This is a significant development, given Lamb did not appear on the injury report at any point throughout the week. Given Lamb’s status as one of the best wide receivers in the league and his surprising injury development, fantasy managers should expect at least one more update before the games kick off on Sunday.

Head coach Mike McCarthy suggested he wasn’t worried about Lamb’s status. The All-Pro was added to the injury report Saturday with a back injury. “I’m not of high concern” about Monday’s status.

This is obviously encouraging, given Lamb’s status will bear the utmost importance being the final game of the Week 11 slate, but fantasy managers should still be looking for more information. The fifth-year wide receiver has missed just one game in his career, all the way back in the 2021-22 season.

Start/Sit Advice
In Cooper Rush’s first start of the season, CeeDee Lamb posted the fourth-worst game of his career in terms of production relative to expectation, minimum six targets (-55.9%).

Is the quarterback to blame? The lack of offensive balance? The sun?

I’m concerned about Lamb’s value moving forward, but there’s nothing actionable. You don’t have three receivers who will project better.

The Texans had allowed 10 receivers to clear 17 PPR points in a game this season, including four in the past three weeks (Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

I’ve docked Lamb in my rest-of-season rankings with this being the Rush show the rest of the way, but his raw talent is still enough to require you to start him weekly, and I still think there is a top-three upside in this profile.

Chris Olave | NO (vs. CLE)

Chris Olave (concussion) was inactive last week and might have well played his final snap of the season after being placed on IR. As of posting, we don’t know that to be 100% true, so you’ll want to hold tight in the short term, though you should be preparing for the worst.

The peaks and valleys are there within Olave’s profile, but with limited support under center, Olave’s stat lines look about as stable year over year as you could ask for.

• 2022: 0.8% over expectation (2.4 yards per route)
• 2023: 0.1% over expectation (2.1 yards per route)
• 2024: 2.2% over expectation (2.2 yards per route)

Olave was a late-second/early-third-round pick across the major platforms this summer. While I think his talent is deserving of such trust, having just 10 touchdown catches through three seasons, and the bad taste from this season, is likely to drop him 2-3 rounds (roughly where DJ Moore was drafted this year).

We are a long way away from having to make that decision, but if that estimation is accurate, I’ll be buying the dip.

Christian Watson | GB (at CHI)

The volume has been acceptable of late (15 targets over his past three games). Watson’s never been a high-opportunity earner, and with just 87 yards and zero touchdowns to show for it, I can’t get there in a less-than-ideal matchup.

The Bears are attacked downfield with one of the 10 highest opponent average depth of throws, but with a top-five mark in preventing end-zone completions, I worry that we don’t get the single big play that we need for Watson to finish as a top-30 wide receiver.

The Green Bay burner has yet to have a game with 12 expected PPR points this season. Keep Watson rostered since he offers as much upside as anyone in this range moving forward with the bye week now in the rearview. But nothing in his profile justifies a ton of Week 11 confidence.

Cooper Kupp | LAR (at NE)

We’ve yet to see the history-setting version of Cooper Kupp this season, but there’s a chance he peaks at the perfect time, as he is coming off of his best game relative to fantasy expectations (+33.6%).

In the loss to the Dolphins, Kupp’s fantasy points per target and EPA per target were both as good as they’ve been this season — trends that I’m willing to buy into.

This is a condensed passing game, which is the type of structure that can allow both Kupp and Puka Nacua to return top-15 value at the position moving forward. In Week 10, that dynamic duo accounted for 60.8% of Los Angeles’ receiving yards. The Rams have struggled to move the ball with consistency on the ground, which opens up even greater usage for both of their star receivers.

Los Angeles remains in a competitive spot and will be pushing hard for the next three weeks, understanding that they have the Bills and 49ers in a five-day stretch come December. You drafted Kupp with the potential that he could take over for weeks at a time, and we seem to be circling such a performance.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs. ATL)

Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Those are just three of the receivers this season without back-to-back top-10 performances — not included on that list is Courtland Sutton after consecutive big weeks (total: 13 catches for 192 yards and a touchdown) as he continues to show growth alongside Bo Nix.

His 32-yard score last week came on a third-down play where the Broncos showed off their willingness to be aggressive in analytically wise spots. You love to see it.

Denver leads the league in average starting field position this season, just another boost when it comes to projecting Sutton’s ability to sustain what he’s been doing lately.

I don’t have him ranked as a top-10 option, but he is a WR2 for me across all formats against the worst defense in terms of opponent completion percentage (70.3%). Also, this game could go over its projected point total if one of the explosive playmakers on either team lands a big play early to encourage offensive aggression.

Darius Slayton | NYG (at CAR)

Darius Slayton (concussion) missed his first game of the season and just his second since the start of 2022 last week, an absence that shouldn’t have impacted fantasy managers in a significant way.

Slayton has the size/speed combination it takes to land splash plays in the NFL (15.1 yards per catch across his 85 games), but he’s pretty solidly a Malik Nabers handcuff these days and nothing more.

With Nabers on the field:

• 234 routes
• 27 targets
• 46 PPR fantasy points

Without Nabers on the field:

• 89 routes
• 23 targets
• 40 PPR fantasy points

Generally speaking, I don’t find myself rostering players like this at the receiver position since there are always dart-throw types available on the wire. I’d rather turn and burn this roster spot for weekly upside, but if you’re comfortable with your team, I can’t argue that Slayton is closer to a top-35 ranking from me than anyone else in your free agent pool.

I didn’t think Darnell Mooney joining the Falcons was an impactful move this summer, and I could not have been more wrong. He’s been nothing short of great for Atlanta and fantasy managers alike, something that appears here to stay for the rest of the fantasy season.

Last week, he was targeted on five of Kirk Cousins’ first eight passes, a run that included a 33-yard grab that landed this offense on the one-yard line where he was trusted to battle through single coverage. That’s not the Mooney we knew coming into 2024, but it’s the version we’ve seen for the past 10 weeks and have come to love.

He’s cleared 105 air yards in five of his past seven games and has finished as a WR2 or better in three straight, a roll I like to continue in this spot. The Broncos are as aggressive as anyone on the defensive end (first in blitz rate and fourth in pressure rate), and that should put a smile on your face.

Drake London when Kirk Cousins is pressured:

• 23 targets
• 13 catches
• 159 yards
• Zero TDs

Mooney when Cousins is pressured:

• 21 targets
• 11 catches
• 268 yards
• Four TDs

Mooney ranks in the same tier as players who entered 2024 with far more name value than him (Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, and Amari Cooper), and he more than deserves the high praise.

Davante Adams | NYJ (vs. IND)

​​Davante Adams hasn’t quite exploded the way we had hoped since joining the Jets. OK, so that’s undershooting it — his production simply hasn’t been acceptable and could sink your season if extended.

Adams’ efficiency, 2024:

• Las Vegas Raiders: 5.6% production under expectations
• New York Jets: 32.9% production under expectations

You’re trusting the process here and hoping the numbers pan out with time. Adams had multiple chances to score last week (of three end-zone targets, one was tipped and another was a miss from Aaron Rodgers) and has commanded an on-field target share north of 34% in consecutive weeks.

Investing in this offense isn’t the most comfortable click these days, so I’m not going to blame you if you look elsewhere in DFS. However, with the Colts allowing the fourth-highest completion percentage this season (68.9%) and volume not a worry, I’m playing him in all season-long formats without much question.

DeAndre Hopkins | KC (at BUF)

DeAndre Hopkins was the star of Week 9 with the Monday night breakthrough performance against the Buccaneers (8-86-2), but his production in Week 10 left fantasy managers wanting more (4-56-0). He earned a 16.7% on-field target share against the Broncos, his lowest since joining the Chiefs, but not every team has a Pat Surtain II on the roster.

Even in a tough game, Hopkins was the target of an end-zone pass, and I’ll take my chances any time that is the case. This is a low-octane offense that will struggle to hit ceilings like it did in Week 9, but the usage generally has been fine for Hopkins, and that’s enough for me to consider him a viable WR2 most weeks.

Buffalo is a strong defense against perimeter receivers, and that could put a bit of a cap on Hopkins. However, they are allowing the eighth-highest red-zone completion percentage (62%; NFL average: 55.5%), and that gives K.C.’s WR1 the potential to bail you out if needed.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (vs. SEA)

Deebo Samuel Sr. is experiencing a bit of a role change; while I have questions about its impact on his consistency for the remainder of the season, I’m not worried about this matchup against a divisional opponent he has destroyed throughout his career.

Samuel’s aDOT is up 23.3% from last season, and that has resulted in a dip in efficiency. Can he continue to land the big plays in this role? This season, he has a gain of 25+ yards in six of seven healthy games, so the early returns are a resounding ‘Yes,’ though any time the ball is in the air longer than it is in his hands creates a natural downside, no matter what you think of Samuel.

The risk is minimal when you consider that Samuel is a uniquely talented player who has at least three carries in each of his past four healthy games, including Christian McCaffrey’s season debut last week. I love that Samuel has four red-zone touches over his past two games and I love it even more as a trend he is taking into a plus spot.

The Seahawks are allowing the ninth-most yards per catch after the reception, making them vulnerable to yet another Samuel explosion spot.

Samuel vs. Seahawks, career:

• Week 6, 2024: 20.7 PPR points
• Week 14, 2023: 34 PPR points
• Week 12, 2023: 22.4 PPR points
• Week 2, 2022: 14.7 PPR points
• Week 4, 2021: 35.7 PPR points

He’s overachieved expectations by over 14% in all of those games, averaging 2.6 fantasy points per target in the process. Samuel is in the WR1 conversation this week, and we know that he hits big when he hits. I expect McCaffrey to attract a lot of DFS attention, and that could leave his explosive teammate under-owned for what his profile suggests is possible.

Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at NE)

Demarcus Robinson was kept on rosters in most of my leagues after he scored multiple touchdowns in consecutive games following the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but I think we can stop it with that charade.

This offense is highly concentrated around three players, and Robinson isn’t one of them. He made a nice play on the sideline last week against the Dolphins, but that was his only touch of the evening as Matthew Stafford was much more efficient when targeting anyone else.

Rams WR catch rates, Week 10 vs. Dolphins:

• Robinson: 20% catch rate
• All other Rams: 79.5% catch rate

If you have the room on your roster, Robinson profiles as the rare receiver handcuff to both Nacua and Kupp, but the standalone value was always going to be a pipe dream.

DeMario Douglas is the type of player that I like when it comes to Drake Maye’s development, but I don’t have him ranked as a viable option right now. He’s seen an on-field target share north of 27% in four of his past six games and has seen 81.9% of his targets come in the slot this season.

However, the elevated floor doesn’t come with enough of a ceiling outcome to make Douglas a worthwhile play in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Diontae Johnson | BAL (at PIT)

Not all Super Bowl contenders are created equal, and the 2024 trade deadline serves as a good reminder. The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens all added a receiver with a strong NFL résumé — none of them for the same reason.

While DeAndre Hopkins was brought in to give the Chiefs upside and Amari Cooper to add a wrinkle for Josh Allen, Diontae Johnson was — a vanity move for the Ravens?

Ravens WRs route totals, Week 10:

• Zay Flowers: 33
• Rashod Bateman: 30
• Nelson Agholor: 19
• Tylan Wallace: Five
• Johnson: Three

OK, so maybe that’s a bit dramatic, but it would appear that the Ravens added talent without a clear picture as to how to use it. Johnson adds talent to a team that could win it all this season, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fantasy asset.

We were confident that the worst case for Johnson was the WR3 role in this offense, but in his second week with the team, he ranked fifth among the receivers in routes. Why would we think that changes? Forget moving ahead of Agholor or Bateman, Wallace turned his five routes into three catches, including a tightrope 84-yard score.

What’s the upside? You can’t justify playing him this week, and the skeptic in me wouldn’t rank him as a top-30 option in Week 12, even if he were to see a usage spike this weekend. That would make Week 13 (vs. Eagles) the most optimistic of optimistic cases for him to even garner lineup interest. That game profiles as a low-possession game with both teams more than willing to operate with a running clock. After that? Week 14 bye.

For me, Johnson is a luxury stash at best. If your team is loaded and you want to hold, that’s a viable approach. But if you’re begging and borrowing to win on a weekly basis, this isn’t a profile that you want to roster.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs. GB)

DJ Moore took full advantage of a favorable matchup against the Panthers in Week 5, and he doesn’t have to apologize for that. If you extend his other eight games for an entire season, we are talking about a receiver with 623 yards and two touchdowns.

That’s not a roster-worthy profile.

I understand that Moore was a star last season, but this is a completely different situation, and he doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups. His aDOT is down 21% from last season, and that change in role hasn’t at all made him more efficient.

In 2023, Moore produced 23% over fantasy expectations. Through 10 weeks this season, he’s checking in 15.1% below expectations. Even in a strong year, he only recorded six catches across two games with the Packers. Your waiver wire may be bare, so I don’t blame you for keeping Moore on the back end of your roster — but that’s as optimistic as I can get.

DK Metcalf | SEA (at SF)

It’s been a rough run of late for DK Metcalf managers (consecutive DNPs leading into the Week 10 bye), but reporting out of Seattle is optimistic for his Week 11 status in this divisional showdown.

Is the upside the same for Metcalf as it has been in the past? I’d argue no. His targets per red zone route run is down to 20.8% after posting three seasons north of 32%, and with Geno Smith playing inconsistent ball (as many games with a sub-5.5-yard aDOT as over 8.5 yards), there is more volatility in this profile than years past.

That said, we are talking about one of the premier athletes who is averaging a career-high 125.1 air yards per game. The matchup isn’t ideal (4.4 yards per target for Metcalf in the Week 6 meeting), but given the state of the receiver position these days, you’re playing him and not thinking twice about it.

The logic behind projecting a breakout season for Dontayvion Wicks this preseason was solid. It looked good early with a 59.5% snap share through the first five weeks. However, with that rate tanking to 34.5%, there isn’t enough in the way of opportunity to consider trotting him out there as a Flex play in anything but a desperation spot.

That said, Wicks should remain rostered due to the touchdown equity. We know this Packers offense frequents the red zone, and he’s as good a bet as any to see looks in scoring position (end-zone target in three of his past four games and he earned four such looks in the Week 4 loss to the Vikings alone).

It’s not exactly the same, but I’m treating Wicks like I would a touchdown-vulture running back — not enough volume to project favorably, but enough upside to be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.

Drake London | ATL (at DEN)

Drake London has developed into one of the more consistent receivers in our game (four straight top-15 finishes) after an underwhelming start (zero such games previously), and nothing in his profile suggests that the good times are going to end any time soon.

Kirk Cousins has fired an end-zone target in the direction of his unquestioned WR1 in five straight games, giving London plenty of scoring equity. The upside boost is worth very little if it doesn’t come with a reasonable floor, something that we are also getting from the 2024 version of this Falcons offense.

London is operating out of the slot on the majority of his routes, and given how productive he is from that spot on the field (2.1 fantasy points per slot target and 3.5 yards per slot route), I have no reservations about ranking him as a top-15 option.

Will the looming shadow of Pat Surtain II limit his upside? It’s possible, but I’m willing to bet on the creativity and versatility of this offense; if this matchup results in suppressed ownership in the DFS streets, I’m going to be overweight in a major way when it comes to the percentage of lineups with London driving the ship.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs. IND)

Garrett Wilson’s volume, like seemingly every other meaningful player on this Jets team, is in flux. How is this team going to function the rest of the way? Is Aaron Rodgers going to remain bought in with New York’s playoff hopes being a thing of the past?

Those are concerns long-term but not things that I’m too worried about this weekend. In a small sample, Wilson’s per-target numbers have been encouraging alongside Davante Adams (compared to snaps without Adams on the field this season, Wilson’s yards per route are up 14.4% and his aDOT is up 23.9%). However, as you’d assume, the process of earning those looks has been a bit of a struggle.

With Adams on the field:

• 22.6% on-field target share
• 19% red-zone target rate

Without Adams on the field:

• 27.8% on-field target share
• 32.4% red-zone target rate

The Colts struggle to generate duress (26th in pressure rate), and that potentially gives Wilson time to work down the field. For better or worse, I don’t think we see 8.2 yards per catch like we did last week in Arizona. That, of course, means a wider range of outcomes to be aware of, but I’m willing to buy in as a low-end WR2 in the same range as a Darnell Mooney type.

George Pickens | PIT (vs. BAL)

A receiver has cleared 21 PPR fantasy points seven times against the Ravens this season, and they check in on average just under 6’2” (all of them being at least 6′). Enter the 6’3” George Pickens and his upward-trending stock since Russell Wilson took over this offense.

Pickens’ production vs. expectations, 2024:

Weeks 1-6: +9%
Weeks 7-10: +34.3%

Pickens has seen five end-zone targets in those three games, the most recent of which was a highlight-reel 16-yard score last week. Pittsburgh is dialing back his slot usage and simply asking him to flip the field and/or change the score with his high-end athleticism.

I think the acquisition of Mike Williams is further proof of their intentions when it comes to Pickens — they are betting on Wilson to keep defenses honest with a big threat on the other side. Whatever fraction of a target that comes off of Pickens’ projection moving forward due to Williams’ presence is, in my opinion, more than paid back by an increase in the quality of the targets that result from safeties having to respect the other side of the field.

Pickens is locked into my top 10 this week and will not be a chalky piece in the DFS streets that I’m fading.

Jakobi Meyers | LV (at MIA)

As we grow older, we learn that not all calories are created equal. Some foods offer more value to your body than others, even if one specific category reads the same. Five catches in five straight games in most spots would result in that player garnering top-25 interest in my rankings. But the empty-calorie nature of Jakobi Meyers’ targets has me treating him like any health nut would Pop-Tarts.

Avoid.

I think Meyers is a good player and would love to see him given the ability to thrive elsewhere, but betting on this Raiders offense is something I’m getting less comfortable doing weekly as the importance of every fantasy matchup rises. Despite the volume, Meyers has reached triple digits in air yards just once this season and has three games this season without a red-zone target (two of which saw him not even run a route inside the opponents’ 20-yard line).

Woof.

If you’re in a bind and need a reasonable floor in a PPR setting, I could see squinting your way to getting him into your lineup. But without much of a ceiling, I’m looking elsewhere in most situations.

Trading a fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo was rumored to be a result of this organization being high on the 2023 second-round pick, but could it not also be read as a lack of confidence in Jalen Tolbert (a third-round pick the year before)?

Mingo wasn’t on the field last week, and that meant another strong snap share for Tolbert (94.6%). I don’t know about you, but my leagues don’t reward snaps. Tolbert posted his second straight game with under 20 receiving yards (45+ yards just twice this season). All signs for this offense as a whole are trending in the wrong direction and that, for me, rules out any hope of a WR2 emerging as a meaningful fantasy asset.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at LAC)

Somehow, 55.4 PPR points feel like it undershot just how dominant Ja’Marr Chase was against the Ravens on Thursday night.

• 17 targets
• 11 catches
• 264 yards (4.5 yards per route)
• Three touchdowns

Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was Chase’s third-best performance of the season when comparing his actual production to expectations (+83.3%)?

• Week 3 vs. Washington Commanders: +133.4%
• Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens: +115.4%

You’re playing Chase and doing so with the utmost confidence, but I laid out the schedule-based case for selling Joe Burrow at the peak of his powers. I actually think that’s the play here as well.

Over the past three weeks, without Tee Higgins, Chase has been targeted on at least 27.5% of his routes in every game. By no means does he have to apologize for that, but in the scope projecting forward, it’s not likely to stick. His target rate was under 21.5% in six of seven games prior to the injury.

You’re not selling him for peanuts, obviously. Heck, you’re not selling him for steak. But if you can get a Wagyu cut with a nice glass of wine? I’m entertaining the idea. Maybe Jayden Reed (bye week behind him, Seahawks-Saints-Vikings finishing kick to the fantasy season) and another player who you’re starting every single week?

Jameson Williams | DET (vs. JAX)

Jameson Williams returned from his two-game PES suspension on Sunday night and gave us … well, he gave us essentially spot-on what his season averages tell us to expect (three catches for 53 yards).

That may sound underwhelming, but that’s on you if you’re expecting more. We were all encouraged by what we saw early in the season, but on a per-game basis, Williams is giving us 2.9 catches for 59.1 yards. He hasn’t taken the leap forward that we expected, and I’d argue that he is closer to regressing than progressing.

In Year 2, his catch rate is identical to what it was in Year 1 (57.1%) with a near mirror image in terms of aDOT (15.6 yards this season, 15.8 last). The hot start to the season was nice, but that’s proven to very much be the outlier and not the norm. In his five games since, he’s earned a target on just 12.5% of routes, a rate below what he produced as a rookie (17.5%).

Now, he did make a few tough catches that proved critical in Detroit’s comeback win last week, and maybe that sparks something, but he’s firmly in the “I need to see it” tier.

He could show us something against a Jags defense that allows the second most yards per deep pass attempt through 10 weeks (16.5), and I’m fine with you considering him as a Flex option, I’m just not saying you have to (I have Ladd McConkey and Cedric Tillman ranked just ahead of him as a part of the same tier).

Jauan Jennings| SF (vs. SEA)

Jauan Jennings returned last week (hip) and made his presence known by leading the 49ers in catches (three), targets (five), and receiving yards (59) in the first half. He didn’t slow down after intermission and the scripted plays ran out, finishing with seven grabs for 93 yards on a 32.4% target share.

49ers WR snap shares, Week 10:

• Jennings: 90.2%
• Deebo Samuel Sr.: 78.7%
• Ricky Pearsall: 62.3%

Everything in his statistical profile reflects that Jennings is a good player — not just a good fill-in for Brandon Aiyuk but a sustainably productive receiver in this league who just happens to be a part of a loaded roster.

In Tampa Bay last week, Brock Purdy threw seven passes to the slot and five went to Jennings. Generally speaking, I love having that role on my roster, but this matchup gives me pause. Through 10 weeks, the Seahawks have been the best defense when it comes to limiting slot production, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt to that spot on the field, half a yard clear of any other unit in the league.

This is a highly efficient offense that doesn’t need to challenge the strengths of opposing defenses, and that works in a bit more of a floor this week than I’d normally assign Jennings. For DFS, I’ll be looking elsewhere, but for season-long play, I still think he is a viable Flex option ranking alongside the likes of his counterpart in this game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at SF)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off the best game of his young career (Week 9 vs. LAR: seven catches for 180 yards and two scores) and has seen 20 targets over a two-game stretch for the first time as a pro.

We entered the season with optimism around this 2023 first-round pick, and he’s beginning to realize that potential at a high level. Can it stick?

Production with DK Metcalf on the field, 2024:

• 11.9% under expectation
• 6.6 aDOT
• Four TDs on 131 targets

Production with Metcalf on the field, 2024:

• 27.6% over expectation
• 13.6 aDOT
• Three TDs on 37 targets

That’s not to say he can’t produce alongside Metcalf, I very much think he can, but we’ve yet to see it. My hope is that what he did in Week 9 was enough for Geno Smith and this offense to structure his usage a bit differently moving forward. But my “hope” doesn’t always translate into fantasy points, and that is why I’m hedging my ranking a little bit.

I’ve got JSN ranked as fringe WR2 as I have to bake in the risk of his aDOT regressing and this difficult matchup. For the record, I’m playing him where I have him, but we can’t just assume that what we last saw is sticky.

If you think Jayden Reed is difficult to nail down, you’re not alone. Not only am I in your camp, but it would appear that the Packers are as well.

• Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -1.8 aDOT
• Week 7 vs. Houston Texans: 9.0 aDOT
• Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.0 aDOT
• Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions: 15.2 aDOT

On one hand, I’m encouraged that this offense is willing to explore Reed’s versatility, but a fluid role like this can bring in more risk than I had penciled into this profile entering the season. That said, I think we are safe to operate with optimism this weekend.

The Bears are vulnerable more in the slot than out wide in terms of efficiency (though they don’t give up touchdowns), and Reed has accounted for 45.5% of the Packers’ slot receptions this season. He’s to be viewed as a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside if, coming out of the bye, this team elects to funnel more looks in the direction of their star pass catcher (he hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game since September).

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs. LV)

Jaylen Waddle picked up 55 yards on Monday night’s first drive, a total he hadn’t reached since Week 1 and more than his previous three games combined; I thought the breakthrough game was upon us.

No dice.

He caught one ball for two yards the rest of the evening. That means that, aside from a single scripted drive to open Week 10, Waddle’s last four games have featured 118 routes run, nine catches, and 54 yards. That’s not just bad by Waddle’s standards but about as bad as it gets by any measure. That 0.46 yards per route run rate is on par with Mason Tipton and Parris Campbell this season.

Almost every player goes through ups and downs throughout a season, but this one is difficult to figure out because nothing in his profile has changed dramatically. His average depth of target, slot usage, and snap share are all in line with what we’d expect, but Waddle just isn’t producing.

Could that change against a Raiders defense that is in the bottom 10 in passer rating and touchdown rate? It could, but at this point, I’d prefer to see it before continuing to bet on it. Waddle ranks as a middling Flex play for me, even in a good matchup this week, sharing a tier with Jameson Williams (vs. JAX), Calvin Ridley (vs. MIN), and Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA).

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at NO)

Jerry Jeudy still hasn’t found paydirt since scoring Cleveland’s first touchdown of the season. However, like the rest of the Browns, there is a more clean path to fantasy viability with Jameis Winston under center.

• Weeks 1-7: 80.1 air yards per game and 15.2% on-field target share
• Weeks 8-9: 117.0 air yards per game and 19.2% on-field target share

I’m not suggesting that banking on a Jeudy breakout game is ever going to be a great idea, but the breadcrumbs are being laid and enough trends are moving in the right direction to consider him in specific situations.

This Cleveland schedule is a friendly one for the fantasy postseason, making a player like this a good player to roster, even if you don’t plan on playing him routinely. Jeudy is a low-end Flex play, a viable option if you’re without Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr. this week.

Jonathan Mingo | DAL (vs. HOU)

On the surface, the Cowboys paying a DeAndre Hopkins price tag for Jonathan Mingo had my attention, but with Dak Prescott out and Cooper Rush needing 23 pass attempts to pick up — checks notes — 45 passing yards, my attention is gone.

Maybe Mingo is unlocked in some new fashion with him apparently atop Jerry Jones’ wish list, but even if you’re going to bet on that, it’s more of a play in 2025 than 2024. There isn’t a secondary receiver that needs to be on fantasy rosters in Dallas this week or for the remainder of the season.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at TEN)

I understand that we are in an era of football that places importance on offensive production, but that doesn’t mean that every team needs to have two viable receivers.

Jordan Addison paid off the excitement that followed him out of USC last season with 10 scores, but the league has adjusted to him; as a result, he’s not in the Flex conversation in any matchup.

In four straight games (and in five of his past six), Addison has failed to reach an on-field target share of 15%, a trend I don’t see reversing as T.J. Hockenson works toward full strength. The inability to earn consistent looks means you’re banking on a single home-run play against the top defense in terms of opponent yards per deep pass.

Good luck with that.

Josh Downs has a boring name and plays for a spotty offense. He’s unlikely to make a play that leads “SportsCenter,” and he’s not going to have the game Ja’Marr Chase had in Week 10 that decided matchups before they really began.

But he’s great and should be started with the utmost confidence. He put a nine-yard touchdown on the turf last week, and that hurt your chances of winning that matchup, but it’s not impacting what I think of Downs moving forward.

Instead, I’m buying into the game script that had Downs targeted on four of Joe Flacco’s first seven passes. Instead, I’m buying into the player who has posted a role with 14.5+ expected PPR points in three straight and in six of his past seven.

The Jets’ defense remains the strength of the team, and that might only ramp up Downs’ role. Flacco showed last week that he is more than capable of making poor decisions, something that could lead to a conservative/thoughtful approach this weekend. The Jets are one of three teams yet to intercept a slot pass this season, making balls thrown to Downs come with less risk than normal.

I have him ranked as a top-20 receiver this week and moving forward. The Colts get the Giants in Week 17 during your fantasy Super Bowl. I think Downs is going to be on more than a few championship rosters when all is said and done.

Josh Reynolds | DEN (vs. ATL)

Josh Reynolds (finger surgery) has been designated to return from injured reserve and that is a nice boost for this offense, but doesn’t move the needle for fantasy purposes.

• Do you know who the second receiver in Denver is in terms of receiving yards?
• Do you know where he ranks league-wide in receiving yards?

The answers are Lil’Jordan Humphrey and 129th (211 receiving yards). I’m as encouraged as anyone by the play of Bo Nix, but I’m not betting on him sustaining a WR2 next to Courtland Sutton.

Joshua Palmer | LAC (vs. CIN)

Joshua Palmer is exactly what you think he is, and there’s a level of comfort in that. He has yet to earn more than five targets in a game, creating a terrifyingly low floor, but at least there’s a ceiling to chase (19.5+ aDOT in three straight games).

When it comes to dart throws on your waiver wire, Palmer is a fine option against a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in both opponent pass TD rate and pressure percentage. There is no shortage of players like this (Mike Williams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling come to mind), but I like having a player like this on my bench in case of emergency while understanding that they are highly unlikely to ever rank as a strong Flex play.

JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (at BUF)

JuJu Smith-Schuster was unable to practice at all last week and has now been sidelined since Week 7 with, you guessed it, a hamstring injury. We saw one good game from the slot receiver (7-130-0 against the Saints over a month ago) and got excited about what he could be in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but those days are behind us.

Not only has DeAndre Hopkins shown comfort, but Isiah Pacheco is due back sooner than later, leaving a low-volume role at best for a banged-up receiver who hasn’t produced viable fantasy numbers in 1.5 years. If you’re holding onto Smith-Schuster as a way to be tied to this Kansas City offense, you can pretty safely stop doing so across all formats.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at TEN)

I don’t want to hear it. In a year where receiver injuries are as prevalent as ever and some bad quarterback situations (be it due to a lack of health or talent) have limited WR production, I don’t want to hear it from the sad Justin Jefferson manager who lost in Week 10 because their first-round pick only gave them 9.8 PPR points on nine targets against the Jaguars.

Sure, it was his worst finish of the season, and yes, I had him projected for close to double that … but relax. Jefferson is without question one of the top receivers in the sport. Even with Sam Darnold’s profile starting to show some cracks, I have no issue with labeling his WR1 as an elite option.

In fact, I’d go as far as to say that the usage last week was just fine — you just ran cold with the production. Three of the four targets that hit the ground were looks in the end zone for Jefferson. If one of them connects, this is a different story.

It was his first game this season with multiple end-zone looks, and if you gave me his exact profile (nine targets, three end-zone looks, and a one-possession game against a bottom-tier defense), I’d rank him as the WR1 for the week.

You worrying about Jefferson is Taylor Swift spending an afternoon sweating out penny stocks.

Keenan Allen | CHI (vs. GB)

If not for his résumé, would Keenan Allen be as rostered as he is?

That’s a rhetorical question, in part because this is a written medium and I can’t hear your answer, and in part because the answer is clear. No. The man has turned 23 targets into just 11 catches and 119 yards during Chicago’s three-game skid. Heck, he’s yet to reach 45 receiving yards as a member of this organization — at the age of 32, we have to start asking the Father Time questions.

On the plus side, he is involved when this team gets in scoring positions, as he leads the team with seven end-zone targets this season. I could also tell you that my wife has the best handwriting in a family full of doctors … does it really matter? The Bears have reached the red zone on just 21% of their drives, a rate that ranks 31st in the league (shoutout to the Browns) and something that renders that skill close to useless.

I have Allen ranked as a fringe top-50 receiver this week, with the only saving grace being that I expect a positive game script, but you’re reaching if you’re this low in the ranks.

Keon Coleman, like fellow WR1 candidate Amari Cooper, was inactive for Week 10 with a wrist injury, halting some of the momentum he had gained in the three weeks prior.

• Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans: 36.7% over expectation
• Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks: 25.9% over expectation
• Week 9 vs. Miami Dolphins: 42.5% over expectation

We still don’t have much context when it comes to how Coleman will be used next to Cooper (most of his big plays since the trade have come with the former Brown off the field), and the target earning has been spotty at best (more games with a single-digit target share than one at 20% or higher).

Generally speaking, I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen in terms of development from Coleman, but I’m going to need proof of concept before considering him for my lineup. He was ruled out on Monday for this week, a bad omen for his stock moving forward — I’m keeping him rostered due to his proximity to targets in a top-10 offense, though I’ll admit that my expectations are low.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. KC)

In terms of advanced metrics, Khalil Shakir didn’t have a solid Week 10. He recorded his first negative EPA per target rate of the season, but PPR managers can’t complain with a fourth straight game with 6+ receptions, a role that feels about as safe as any in the league.

Keon Coleman (already ruled out for Week 11) and Amari Cooper were both sidelined last week with wrist injuries, though I’m not sure that significantly impacts what Shakir does for this offense. Should Cooper return to the field this week, my PPR WR2 ranking of Shakir won’t meaningfully change; I view him as an extension of the running game and value his connection with Josh Allen.

The vaunted Chiefs defense is every bit as good as you think it is, but it has allowed the second-highest passer rating to the slot through 10 weeks (122.8, only the Commanders have been worse). That has me labeling Shakir’s Week 10 stat line (6-58-0) as something of a floor, and that’s startable.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs. CIN)

This Chargers offense opening up is enough to keep Ladd McConkey on Flex radars for the remainder of the season, but I don’t like him as much as the rest of the industry does this week.

First of all, what was last week? I like McConkey as the WR1 in this offense, but players in that role rarely go through an entire game seeing a target on just 9.5% of their routes. I’m not calling it predictive yet, but that floor is scary for a rookie receiver who is naturally at risk of NFL defenses adjusting to how they cover him.

The slightly less obvious pivot point is the matchup. No, I’m not going to sell you the Bengals as anything besides a vulnerable unit, but they allow the sixth-fewest yards per completion to the slot this season. Cincinnati can be had elsewhere (and by “elsewhere,” I mean “everywhere else”), but I don’t think he’s positioned as well as you’d assume as 69.3% of McConkey’s routes since Week 4 have come in the slot.

For me, he’s in the Jaylen Waddle/Flex-if-forced tier. For reference, I’m starting Cedric Tillman over him this week and would play Tank Dell over him as well, regardless of Nico Collins’ status for Monday night.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO (vs. CLE)

It’s easy to connect the dots and say that Marquez Valdes-Scantling can be 85% of what Rashid Shaheed was for this offense after he turned three targets into 25.9 PPR points.

Be careful.

It should go without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: I’m listening more to six seasons of data than I am to the most recent 60 minutes. Up to 2024, MVS’ career has been spent with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, elite-level quarterback play that has seen him produce 5.5% under expectations. You’re either dismissing him as a fantasy starter due to a 92-game sample of struggles or buying into Derek Carr as the key to unlock consistency.

The matchup with Cleveland doesn’t bother me. In fact, I’m OK with labeling it as a reasonable spot (third-highest opponent average depth of throw through 10 weeks), and that is why I have Valdes-Scantling atop my Saints WR rankings, but that doesn’t land him in my top 40.

If you’re hoping for a single big play, I’ll take Mike Williams over MVS without a second thought.

Mason Tipton | NO (vs. CLE)

Update: In a surprise move, Tipton was announced as inactive ahead of the Saints game against the Cleveland Browns.

The thought process when targeting a receiver room that is in flux is sound, but I’d recommend doing it for either a player with more pedigree (Tipton: undrafted after four years at Yale) or in an offense with more upside (15 PPG over its past four games).

Saints WR snap shares, Week 10:

• Tipton: 55.8%
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 53.8%
• Kevin Austin Jr.: 48.1%

Without much separation, there’s not enough projectable volume to assign to any receiver in this offense. Tipton has run 54 routes over the past two weeks, which is 54 more than me — and yet, we are tied in receptions.

Way down the rankings, I’d rather hope for the best on a Devaughn Vele (DEN) or Ja’Lynn Polk type this week.

With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 with relative ease when at full strength, something that he is clearly not at after sitting Week 10 (back/finger).

I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might. But we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.

I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months. We managers have trust issues, and it’s going to be difficult to recover from what we have (more accurately, haven’t) gotten through 10 weeks.

Mike Williams | PIT (vs. BAL)

Mike Williams’ addition to this team made all the sense in the world. Of course, that’s easy to say after he posts a game where his PPR fantasy point total (10.2) nearly matches his snap rate (12%), but the logic tracks for a deep threat in a Russell Wilson-led offense void of a WR2.

Williams needs to be rostered, and if you’re stuck this week in a position where you are swinging for the fences, why not go in this direction? The Ravens are the fourth-worst defense against deep passes by EPA, and the fantasy numbers reflect as much. Here are the players to score 10+ points against Baltimore in a game this season solely on passes thrown at least 15 yards down the field:

• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 10): 34 deep points
• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 5): 13.9
• KaVontae Turpin (Week 3): 11.9
• Davante Adams (Week 2): 11.5
• Courtland Sutton (Week 9): 11.5
• Jalen Tolbert (Week 3): 11.4
• Cedric Tillman (Week 8): 10.8
• Elijah Moore (Week 8): 10.7
• Xavier Worthy (Week 1): 10.5

I’m not ranking Williams as a top-30 receiver until we see his role crystalize, but he’s on the shortlist of my favorites to go on a run like what we saw from Alec Pierce in September.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (vs. MIN)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine entered Week 10 having scored in four straight games in one of the more improbable streaks of the first half of this season and earning him a spot in this article.

His stay, however, may be short-lived. He was on the field for every Tennessee offensive snap last week against the Chargers, but without an end-zone target, he was predictably underwhelming (three catches for 31 yards). Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging under a yard per route and has earned a target on just 13.7% of his career routes.

The back end of your roster should remain fluid so that you can ride waves like what Westbrook-Ikhine did for a month. Of course, the other side of that coin is being content to move on from players like that once the production dries up. That is where we currently stand in this instance.

Nico Collins | HOU (at DAL)

It’s not crazy to call Nico Collins a top-10 receiver in the NFL, right? He has 154 targets since the beginning of last season as he continues to develop, a level of volume that could easily be achieved within a single healthy season if you consider him among the game’s best (nine receivers cleared that number in 2023 alone). On those 154 targets …

• 112 catches
• 1,864 yards
• 11 touchdowns

Those are similar raw numbers and superior rate numbers to what CeeDee Lamb did last season. You’ll want to monitor the status of Collins’ hamstring (I’ll update this piece daily, so just bookmark this and check back as part of your nightly routine), but barring setbacks, he’ll be locked into the many lineups in which I have access to this star.

Parker Washington | JAX (at DET)

The Parker Washington experiment made sense immediately following the Christian Kirk injury, as it opened up a slot role in an offense that has a pair of receivers who prefer to run vertical routes in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. The easy projection was to shift Kirk’s usage onto Washington, and while that still didn’t land him as a top-35 option, it was enough of a role to roster in a Trevor Lawrence-led offense that plays from behind on a consistent basis.

Lawrence hasn’t been good this season. Jacksonville couldn’t hold onto the ball under Mac Jones last week against the Vikings, and even if they could have extended a few drives, what motivation would they have had to trust a passing game behind a quarterback who had a higher completion count than QBR?

You’re free to cut ties with Washington and chase the next role change that presents itself in this year of receiver injuries.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at NE)

Per our NFL Week 11 Trends and Insights piece (up every Tuesday morning, check it out!), Puka Nacua has seen at least seven targets in 18 of his 21 career games, matching the most by any player in the 2000s for such games through 21 career contests (tied with Anquan Boldin and Allen Robinson).

That’s a cute stat to tell you what you know — this man is on the short list of best target earners in our game and plays with the WR elevator that is Matthew Stafford. Nacua doubled up Cooper Kupp in the target department in Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins and should be viewed as a WR1 in this offense in terms of usage.

Of course, Kupp still gets plenty of looks and soaks up red-zone usage in bulk. But with a struggling defense, there’s no reason that both can’t be viewed as locked-in assets on a weekly basis.

For the season, the Patriots own the fifth-lowest interception rate and rank 25th in pressure rate. Stafford will have time and the green light to be aggressive. I prefer Nacua to Kupp in this spot, but both are to be viewed as top-15 options and very live in a DFS setting at cost.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs. CIN)

A few times per season, we see a player perform so far above expectation that it is difficult to digest, usually coming by way of a crazy touchdown rate. In recent years, Christian Watson and Jordan Addison come to mind as young receivers who rode unsustainable scoring efficiency to strong seasons.

Those two were able to remain productive for their breakout season but have been bitten by the regression bug to a degree since. That’s the thing about regression — we can all feel it looming, but it’s an inexact science when it comes to projecting the impact in a single-game sample size.

Enter Quentin Johnston, a player who has scored on 17.2% of his targets this season. For reference, Calvin Johnson scored on 10.1% of his targets during the best scoring season of his Hall of Fame career. He’s 12.8 PPR fantasy points away from matching his rookie season total despite having seen 38 fewer targets.

Nothing about this feels real to me (two touchdowns have come in games with a single-digit on-field target share, he doesn’t have an end-zone target in five of seven games, etc.) and yet, because of the matchup, he’s deserving of Flex consideration.

Bengals defensive rankings, 2024:

• 23rd in yards per game
• 28th in points per drive
• 29th in touchdown rate
• 31st in red-zone efficiency

For me, betting on Johnston is more of a bet on his quarterback than anything else. During this three-game winning streak, Justin Herbert owns the fourth-highest passer rating in the NFL (119.2 trailing only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins). I have him ranked as a WR3, just ahead of options whom I view as equally volatile as Johnston but with less support under center (Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr., and Rome Odunze).

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at PIT)

Rashod Bateman scored his fourth touchdown of the season on Thursday night, but he was again held under 60 receiving yards (eight times in 10 games) and none of the underlying numbers suggest that this is a fantasy asset moving forward.

Bateman’s usage trends by season:

• 2021: 16.6% target rate, 14.4% routes in slot
• 2022: 23.3% target rate, 10.0% routes in slot
• 2023: 16.5% target rate, 9.7% routes in slot
• 2024: 16.3% target rate, 7.2% routes in slot

He’s been great when given the opportunity this season (32.7% over expectation), but we have a track record of that not being who he is (first three seasons: 7.8% under expectation), and his involvement has more room to decline than improve (Isaiah Likely’s health and Diontae Johnson’s role).

I don’t think I’ll ever have Bateman ranked as a top-35 receiver, and if he’s never going to threaten your starting lineup, why roster him?

This Atlanta Falcons offense has proven productive, but asking it to sustain four pass catchers alongside Bijan Robinson is a bit much. Ray-Ray McCloud is on the field as often as anyone (98.6% snap share last week, a fourth straight game of growth), but what motivation does Kirk Cousins have to look his way?

The early-season volume has dried up as this Darnell Mooney season has been legitimized, resulting in McCloud seeing a target on no more than 12% of his routes in four straight games. That level of involvement simply isn’t enough to justify being rostered in anything but the deepest of deep leagues.

If you’re this far down in the rankings, Mack Hollins or Devaughn Vele are options I prefer, but again, we are talking sheer desperation mode.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs. SEA)

Ricky Pearsall’s story is as good as it gets, and I loved what I saw in his first-quarter, 46-yard touchdown last week.

 

The Brandon Aiyuk injury opens up a door for a third option to retain some value in theory, but I tend to be of the belief that the Big Three (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle) assume most of the vacated usage.

Even if that thought proves wrong, Jauan Jennings was playing ahead of Pearsall last week, making this at best a two-man race for a role that might be valuable. I have no problem in holding onto the rookie due to the raw talent and the efficiency of this offense, but asking him to repeat what he did last week (4-73-1) simply isn’t reasonable.

I have him ranked in the same range as the secondary Packers receivers this week, but a step behind all of them because they have upward mobility when it comes to role. Pearsall’s best case is the fourth option, and that carries with it a capped ceiling.

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs. GB)

With at least six targets in three straight games, the breadcrumbs for a Rome Odunze breakout could be on the ground, though I need to see some level of consistency from Caleb Williams before elevating the rookie receiver from nice stash to impactful Flex.

Chicago had three players reach 75 receiving yards in Week 3 — they’ve only had two players reach that mark in a game otherwise. I remain bullish on this offense for the future and believe that Odunze is their best option in both the short and long term, but don’t mistake “their best” with “your best.”

In the scope of talented receivers with uneven quarterback play, I’d rather ride the form of Calvin Ridley/Courtland Sutton or bank on a post-bye bump from Jerry Jeudy.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at CHI)

I mentioned the scoring situation savvy of Dontayvion Wicks, and that is draining value from a player in Romeo Doubs who showcased plenty of scoring potential last season with eight scores.

Except for Jayden Reed, there aren’t consistent target earners in this Green Bay offense, and that amplifies the impact of those targets in close. Last season, Doubs was targeted on 22% of his red-zone routes, a rate that has fallen to 14.6% through 10 weeks this season.

We know he has the propensity to disappear altogether (targeted on under 16% of his routes in three of his past five games), something that terrifies me whenever an above-average defense is on the other sideline.

Like all of the other ancillary Packers playmakers, Doubs is a valuable name to have on your roster, but not in your starting lineup at the moment.

Tank Dell | HOU (at DAL)

We have zero sample size of what Tank Dell’s role looks like in a world that has the breakout version of Nico Collins active and the injured Stefon Diggs inactive, so there’s certainly a level of guesswork that goes into this evaluation.

My concern revolves around a healthy game-wrecker in Micah Parsons. Dell has been targeted on 21% of his career routes when C.J. Stroud gets rid of the ball faster than the league average (otherwise: 24%).

That may not seem like a massive difference, but if we are talking about the spread at face value, which implies Houston is controlling this game, we could be looking at an underwhelming night in terms of passing volume. That makes a trend like that more impactful.

Dell is a good player with enough upside to justify Flexing, but presuming a healthy-ish Collins, I’m projecting more like 4-6 targets than 6-8; that creates a scary floor. I have him ranked alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, another receiver who has seen his volume tick up with the absence of his team’s WR1. Dell is a middling WR3/Flex option for me with a wide range of outcomes.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at LAC)

A quad injury cost Tee Higgins his third straight game in Week 10, not a surprising development given the quick turnaround and his lack of practice participation. I’m cautiously optimistic that, courtesy of this mini-bye, fantasy managers will have him back in the mix. Given the form of this offense (75 points over the past two weeks and five games this season with 33+ points), there’s no decision to be made.

You play Higgins.

In his last three games (Weeks 5-7), Ja’Marr Chase was fantasy’s top receiver and Higgins was WR5, ranking ahead of Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown over that stretch. The Chargers’ defense has proven to be among the best in the league, but in their only game against a team with two fantasy regular pass catchers, that duo (Davante Adams and Brock Bowers) accounted for 44% of their team’s receptions.

This is an ultra-condensed, ultra-pass-centric offense and Higgins is featured. As long as a clean bill of health is in our pockets by the time this week kicks off, you can lock him in with confidence.

Tyler Lockett | SEA (at SF)

We’ve now cleared a full 365-day stretch since the last time Tyler Lockett reached 90 receiving yards in a game. With no more than 10 expected PPR points in four of his past five games, there isn’t a reasonable way to feel good about playing the veteran receiver at this moment in time.

And why would we expect that to change moving forward?

Lockett’s slot rate (27.3% of his routes) is at a career low, a trend that has eliminated the once sturdy floor. That’s a crippling blow for a 32-year-old receiver that has lost a step when it comes to stretching the field.

You can chase the fact that Lockett scored in the first meeting with the 49ers if you want — can you do it in a head-to-head DFS matchup with me? I don’t see myself ranking Lockett as a redraft starter for the remainder of the season barring injuries ahead of him, and that means he is on the roster chopping block if push comes to shove.

Tyreek Hill | MIA (vs. LV)

Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision last week (wrist), and while he was active, he wasn’t as “active” by his lofty standards. The one-yard touchdown saved his stat line from a complete disaster, but he posted just a 14.8% on-field target share, a career low for a game started by Tua Tagovailoa.

It sounds as if this injury will have to be managed throughout, but given that the Dolphins have essentially no room for error the rest of the way, I fully expect their star receiver to play through it.

I’ve dropped him a touch in my rankings as a result of the ailment, but that just means he now ranks closer to WR12 on the week than WR5 — there’s nothing actionable to do on your end. No defense in the NFL allows touchdowns at a higher rate on short passes than the Raiders, so if the plan is to get Hill the ball in space and allow him to dictate how many hits he takes, that could still pay off in a significant way on Sunday.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at BUF)

I understand that we seemingly see one splash play opportunity for Xavier Worthy weekly, but can we be done now?

Patrick Mahomes’ average depth of throw continues to move closer to the line of scrimmage, and it’s become clear that making the most of limited opportunities isn’t Worthy’s path to viability (11 yards on six targets over the past two weeks). He was targeted on two of Kansas City’s first four passes last week against the Broncos, a sign that they want to get him involved.

But we already knew that. We knew that when they drafted him 28th overall. The fact that he could only earn two targets the rest of the way is the most recent set of proof that we have been handed that he’s simply not ready to earn consistent looks at this level.

I’m going to keep ranking him outside of my top 50 at the position and feel good about it. Am I going to be wrong eventually? Yep. Does anyone know when that will be? Nope, and that is why I’m not comfortable playing him.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at PIT)

The idea of banking on Zay Flowers is sound — he’s the clear WR1 in one of the best offenses in the league whose defense struggles to get consecutive stops. The process makes all the sense in the world, and that is why I am going to continue to rank him as a viable starter, but it’s been a wild ride.

The production is all over the place. That’s because his role is all over the place. This season, he’s posted an aDOT of under 5.5 yards in five games this season, but he’s also cleared 10.5 yards in four instances. We know that Flowers is a great YAC threat (up 38% from last season), but with the sporadic usage due to the dynamic that Derrick Henry brings to this offense, his fantasy value is anything but stable.

I don’t think there’s much you can do here. I’ve dropped him down in my rankings, but that doesn’t remove him from the third tier and a starter across the board. If I’m going down in my league, this is the type of player I’ll do it for, one where we see glimpses of the potential and are confident in his offensive environment.