In need of a fantasy football win? You’ve done the hard part and put a talented roster together — allow me to help you make the final decisions as you look to lock in your Week 3 lineup!
Who Should I Start in Week 3?
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (at IND)
Indy is where the very stoppable force meets the very movable object when one of the least efficient backs in the sport faces an offensive defense.
Let’s start with Swift – his 24 carries have gained 48 yards this season. As if that stat line isn’t depressing enough, how about the fact that 20 of those yards came on a single carry?
The Bears are tied with the Panthers for the fewest red-zone trips this season, something that essentially rules out Swift finding pay dirt and saving your bacon that way. Under normal circumstances, Chicago’s lead back would be a sure-fire bench, but facing the Colts’ run defense doesn’t qualify as “normal circumstances.”
This porous run unit has allowed opposing running backs to pile up 350 rushing yards. Not only does that lead the league, but it’s more than the Ravens, Texans, Patriots, and Saints have allowed. Combined.
Swift has accounted for 77.4% of running back carries in Chicago, positioning him to be the primary beneficiary of this perfect matchup. With nothing in his 2024 statistical makeup suggesting optimism, I have Swift penciled in as a fringe RB2 based on the advantageous matchup.
Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. WAS)
For a player on a 0-2 team without 110 scrimmage yards this season, I’m oddly optimistic about Moss’ outlook moving forward. He has tripled the carry count of Chase Brown in both games this season and earned four targets in the season-opening loss to the Patriots.
Moss’ snap share:
- Week 1: 64.6%
- Week 2: 82%
With the Commanders on the slate to round out this week and a date with the Panthers next Sunday, your opportunity to invest in Moss is likely running short. He’s an average RB2 for me who I’m playing over a featured back in a similarly positive matchup like Jerome Ford.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks (vs. MIA)
Charbonnet posted a 95.5% snap share in Week 2, the highest mark by a running back this season as he assumed Walker’s role in its entirety.
Zach Charbonnet puts Seattle ahead #Seahawks
📺: #SEAvsNE on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/TRGCyBQ6zC— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
In the spot start, Charbonnet posted his second NFL game with 30+ rushing yards, 30+ receiving yards, and a rushing score. All other Seattle RBs since 2020 have two such games (Walker and Alex Collins), an ode to the skill set that is in his profile.
In a game in which Seattle is expected to win, I have Charbonnet labeled as a starting option in all formats. He’s a nice matchup play, ranking in the same range as D’Andre Swift (at IND) and Jerome Ford (vs. NYG).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (vs. MIA)
Usually a season breakout requires a few breadcrumbs. We are teased with potential and whiff a few times before, eventually, seeing our loyalty be rewarded.
Not here. The pride of Ohio State put himself on the weekly starter radar with on single game and did it against a strong defense that shut down the Bengals in Week 1.
- Week 2: 172 air yards
- First four career games in September: 38 air yards
Smith-Njigba was clearly worked into the script in a significant way (three of the first four targets and seven of the first 12) and his versatility was on full display, something the Seahawks had been hesitant to showcase before.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba. All 16 Targets from Week 2 at Patriots. Does he overtake Lockett now as the Seahawks WR2? pic.twitter.com/v3G5RupWPn
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 16, 2024
JSN was drafted as the WR2 in this offense and not only is that clearly the case, I have him considerably closer to WR1 than WR3. Miami ranks below the league average on short passes in terms of completion and touchdown percentage – these are the types of matchups where Smith-Njigba owns a nice floor. If the vertical routes we saw last week are here to stay, a top-15 upside is in his profile.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (vs. NYG)
The Giants are the only defense in the league that has allowed at least four deep completions in both games this season. While the Watson/Cooper tandem has yet to bear much fruit (five catches on 17 targets), this lines up as a get-right spot.
Opponents have completed 87% of passes (20 of 23) when throwing to the perimeter against the G-men, a rate that is borderline hard to comprehend, That is where Cooper lives as he has seen 70.8% of his targets when split out wide this season (72.2% since joining Cleveland).
It’s been a mess up to this point, but Watson did look a little better last week; that, along with this matchup, is enough for Cooper to hold onto my trust for one more week. With a month of strong matchups ahead, one big game on Sunday could lead to him assuming lineup-lock status for an extended stretch – he’s on my list for the five players with the most to prove in Week 3.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (at ATL)
Adam Schefter reported last Saturday that Hollywood Brown is expected to miss the entire regular season, a development that opens the door for fantasy managers to profit in a major way with their Worthy investment.
Now, it’s important to remember that not all “profits” look the same. Worthy has earned just seven targets on 48 routes this season. I don’t care. In fact, I’m encouraged.
The reps are all I want in the first half of the season, and with Brown out, Worthy is assured the ability to learn on the fly. The Falcons’ defense has been stout this season and looked good on Monday night, but if A.J. Terrell Jr. is on Rice duty, we could get single coverage situations on a fast track for the fastest player ever to lace ’em up.
In the worst-case scenario, your Worthy stock takes time to mature and gives you elite upside during your playoffs. That’s not a bad outcome at all, and I’m expecting a handful of spike weeks between now and then. He’s flirting with my top 25 this week, grading ahead of more established assets like Jaylen Waddle and Amari Cooper.
I’ll take it one step further: Worthy is my WR2 in this game.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions (at ARI)
Fantasy’s WR7 through two weeks projects favorably moving forward. That might not sound like a ground-breaking analysis, and it’s not. That said, any time we see an explosive receiver like this produce in consecutive weeks, the “sell high” narrative is inevitable.
Don’t fall into that temptation. I beg of you, don’t do it.
The splash plays are the highlight of Williams’ profile, and that’s no secret. The Goff bombs in weatherproof games are going to continue to be there, and when they hit, we’re looking at a game-breaker. When they don’t? I’m still not worried.
Williams has as many end-zone targets this season as last, and he’s been handed the ball in both games this season. He got tangled up in coverage early in Week 2 and Goff threw a pick, but instead of looking elsewhere on the coming drives, Detroit’s veteran QB showed confidence in his emerging burner.
I’d be more likely to buy high than try to move on from Williams — this is just the beginning.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (at CIN)
You’re welcome to nitpick Daniels’ game based on NFL expectations all you want, but I’m happy to take him to the bank for fantasy purposes. The rushing is something we knew would translate, but I’m encouraged by Washington’s scheming around him.
By no means is this a loaded offense and that often puts rookie QBs in a tough spot. Heck, Caleb Williams is struggling, and we talked all summer about him walking into the greatest supporting cast ever for a rookie. The Commanders have implemented a conservative game plan when it comes to airing the ball out, and Daniels is executing.
He’s completed over 70% of his passes with 10+ runs in both games, making him one of four quarterbacks to post a streak like that since 2000 (minimum 20 pass attempts). The others included fantasy royalty like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Cam Newton.
Daniels is a ways from being considered in the same stratosphere as that trio, but there is no denying that how he plays and how our game is scored is a perfect fit. He, again, sits inside my top 10 at the position, and I’d play him over a proven option in his opposing number.
Who Should I Sit in Week 3?
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at TB)
Williams is the lead back in Denver (62.5% snap share last week), I’m just not sure it really matters. He is averaging just 2.1 yards per carry (19 attempts for 40 yards), saving your Week 2 loyalty on the back of five receptions.
After two weeks, it has become clear that this is a flawed Broncos offense, which means that all of their roster-able pieces need to show me that they belong in the Flex conversation before I blindly put them there.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay (at TEN)
We got the dreaded triple-single from the Packers’ receiver room last week under Willis.
- Reed led the WRs in touches
- Dontayvion Wicks led the WRs in targets and scores
- Romeo Doubs led the WRs in yards
The Titans are allowing just 19.4 yards per drive through two weeks (third fewest), and while I’m not sold on this defense as anything other than ordinary, I’m happy to use that stat as an excuse to bench all Packer pass catchers again this weekend.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. CHI)
Of all my preseason takes, Pittman thriving in this offense is the one I am most worried about. With just 52 yards to show for himself, it’s become very clear that we are looking at a mismatch of skill sets.
Pittman wants to win quickly and earn lots of volume in the short pass game without much touchdown equity to show for his time in the NFL.
Richardson wants to extend plays and shorten drives via the chunk play.
See what I mean? I like peanut butter, and I like chicken, but together they are no good. It’s beginning to feel like that could be the situation for Pittman – he’s fine by himself, but in this specific situation, his one-time high-floor skill set isn’t of much value to us.
I’m stubborn and not yet tossing in the towel from a season-long perspective, hoping that Richardson’s game develops with time, but I have no choice but to tank Pittman in my rankings until we see signs of that.
Instead of pushing for a WR1 ranking as I had hoped less than a month ago, Pittman (with a return of Josh Downs only further complicating this projection) is hanging on for dear life to WR2 status, ranking behind Xavier Worthy’s upside and in the same range as receivers like Jaylen Waddle and Amari Cooper who also need their talent to overcome their situations.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans (at MIN)
The former Minnesota Viking has seen six targets in both of his games as a member of the Texans, though it is worth noting that he satisfied a different role in each of those contests.
- Week 1: nine air yards
- Week 2: 59 air yards
Diggs saw three deep targets last week, and while that raises the potential value of his opportunities, I think it’s a net negative for his projection moving forward. We know that Collins can win on all three levels and that Dell is viewed more as a field stretcher – if Diggs’ aDOT rises, he runs into more target competition.
His former employer owns the seventh-lowest opponent aDOT since the beginning of last season, making this a “show me” game of sorts. If Diggs is earning targets less than 10 yards down the field, I’ll move him back into my low-end WR2 tier. For the time being, I’m labeling him as the WR3 in this offense, and that has me sitting him if I have reasonable depth on my roster.
Right now, he occupies the same spot in my rankings as former teammate Khalil Shakir and just about every receiver in the Packers/Titans game. The name inspires more confidence than I have in Diggs (70 receiving yards this season) right now.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans (vs. GB)
With DeAndre Hopkins opening this season limited, Ridley has assumed the clear WR1 role, and it paid off in a big way against the Jets (87 yards and a pair of touchdowns). He rolled into the end zone after making an acrobatic catch on a bomb and found paydirt with a 10-yard run, two individual plays that speak to the upside that comes with Ridley’s athletic profile.
Ridley leads all players in air yards this season, a role that is going to come with crazy swings in production. He’s very much a matchup play, and while the Packers can be had vertically (though you wouldn’t know it if you bet on Anthony Richardson last weekend), this projects as a low-possession game, thus putting more value on every single play.
Efficiency isn’t exactly a strength of Levis’, and that has me out on all Titans pass catchers in this spot. Ridley is sitting as my WR38, in the exact same spot as Reed and in a no-fly zone if you have any depth at the position.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (vs. BAL)
Prescott has yet to post top-15 numbers at the position in a game this season, and this generally isn’t the type of spot where I call his number if I have a better option.
Splits last season, by opponent:
- Against playoff teams: 17.7 FP PPG, 0.48 FP per pass, 8.6 aDOT
- Against non-playoff teams: 21.9 FP PPG, 0.54 FP per pass, 7.7 aDOT
The Ravens have the potential to bleed clock given their running game and the ability to win with short passes, increasing the importance of efficiency for Prescott. Is he up for the challenge?
I’m not so sure. He completed just 59.4% of his passes against a stingy Browns defense in Week 1, and if that is the version of him we get on Sunday, he’s going to have a hard time keeping up with the streaking Derek Carr or Baker Mayfield, the two QBs who round out my starting tier at the position.