When it comes to making fantasy football decisions each week, your start/sit choices throughout the game week are the hardest to make.
To a large extent, those decisions dictate whether all the other judgments you made look smart or terrible.
Let’s see which players stand out as my top options to start and sit in Week 2.
Who Should I Start in Week 2?
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey was a late scratch on Monday (to us at least, as Jordan Mason implied that he knew he’d be featured entering the weekend), and Mason rewarded savvy fantasy managers with an RB5 finish.
The raw counting numbers are one thing, but if you’ve been reading my content, you know that I hardly look at the final results. I prefer to evaluate how the player got to his numbers; in Mason’s case, I’m buying. His production against the Jets was 21.7% over expectation, and he ranked third among running backs (over 15 carries) in our custom elusive rating.
Nothing Mason did last week looks out of place on the surface. He did say in the postgame that he wasn’t sure how McCaffrey handles this role for four straight months, opening the door to speculation about whether he will again assume elite usage this week.
That notion, along with the matchup (the Minnesota Vikings allowed under one foot per carry before contact to running backs last week, third-best), dragged Mason down to the average RB2 tier in my rankings — but he remains a fine bet.
When it comes to evaluating some of the Week 1 RB breakouts in Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard, I’d rather start Mason due to the stability of his offensive environment.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
This backfield isn’t a committee. The overall snap shares were similar, but break it down further and there is only one answer as to which running back in Washington you want sniffing your lineup.
Snap share between the 30s:
- Brian Robinson Jr.: 50%
- Austin Ekeler: 50%
Snap share inside the 30:
- Brian Robinson Jr.: 77.8%
- Austin Ekeler: 33.3%
Brian Robinson Jr. has made nice skill-set strides up to this point in his career and is a legitimate threat as both a between-the-tackles runner and a receiver in space. Given his area of touches, he gave fantasy managers 15.2% more production than the average back last season, and that rate was 24.2% in the Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers.
I think it’s fairly safe to assign Robinson a 15-to-20% opportunity projection with decent scoring equity weekly, and that’s going to land him in your fantasy lineups consistently.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Jones and Jordan Mason rank in the same tier for me this week. In his Vikings debut, Jones played the majority of snaps and rewarded his new team by producing 54.3% over expectation (2023: 12.7% below expectation).
We saw Jones thrive in Week 1 last season too, so let’s not get out of control. He drew a plus-matchup, and with Darnold opening his season as efficiently as anyone, the stage was set. I think his best days are behind him and am not willing to admit that we were wrong in our offseason evaluation of this offense.
As skeptical as I am, Jones’ touch count projects favorably enough to make him a low-end RB2 in this difficult spot.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
We said it all offseason and it’s always nice when things work out. Williams owns a rare skill set, and he saw his snap shares spike as last season came to a close. Ending with positive trends is never a bad thing, but it should be viewed as especially predictive when it comes to a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Detroit is nothing short of a perfect spot for a player like this, and that is why I’m not hesitating to rank him as a top-30 option this week (and moving forward). Williams isn’t the only game-breaking receiver in the league, but he might be the only one who plays on a fast track, with a pocket-locked quarterback, in an offense that has elite target earners in the short-and-intermediate areas.
His 32.1% target share from Week 1 may be his high-water mark for the season, and that’s OK. No one is going to argue with plenty of opportunities, but he doesn’t need them in order to pay off (the way Chris Godwin does, for example). He simply needs to be on the field (85.2% snap share on Sunday night, a career-best by 13 full percentage points) and threatening defenses.
Amari Cooper might be a better all-around receiver. Stefon Diggs could probably claim the same, and I think Brian Thomas Jr. has a better shot to lead his team in targets at any point during his career than Williams. Don’t care. This is a production-based business, and this perfect spot against a defense that excels at stopping the run isn’t slowing down my optimism – give me Williams over all of those options this week.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
After watching him play with Caleb Williams in live action, I lowered DJ Moore’s chances of repeating his 2023 success from little to none.
That’s not to say he can’t be viable; I just don’t think Moore can be special. Against the Tennessee Titans last week, Moore’s average depth of target was 38.9% lower than last season. If that sticks, I’m worried.
All three of Chicago’s primary receivers had an aDOT under 10 yards, a replication of skills that is prohibitive when it comes to consistent success.
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Moore can win down the field, and if he gets pushed outside with time, his fantasy ceiling will increase. I’d bet on that happening, but not until Williams is comfortable.
You can feel fine about labeling Moore as a low-end WR2 in all formats, tiering alongside other top options with risk under center like Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
I loved what I saw from the rookie in his debut. The Las Vegas Raiders showed us this preseason that Brock Bowers would be used as a weapon in a variety of ways; that proved true, as he led the team in catches and receiving yards last weekend.
Bowers was on the field for 67.8% of snaps last week and nearly doubled up Michael Mayer in the routes department. This isn’t a committee situation; this is Bowers’ show, and that has him pushing for a top-10 ranking.
He has a chance to be the most valuable tight end in this game, and, at the very least, Bowers should be started over veterans like Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth with confidence.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
My “Jared Goff for MVP” bet isn’t off to a great statistical start, but I’m fine with labeling him as a top-10 option this week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked 28th last season in defending the slot (passer rating) and deep passes (touchdown rate), giving Detroit’s signal caller a few paths to posting a big number with Jameson Williams seemingly breaking out.
The fact that the Bucs are stout against the run only helps further build Goff’s case. Jahmyr Gibbs figures to out-snap David Montgomery in this spot, and that creates even more potential for those “cheap” targets to result in splash plays.
If given the choice, I’d play Goff over Jayden Daniels, even with the rookie in a golden spot against the New York Giants.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
In a perfect world, we see Daniels attack down the field with his arm a bit more in his second start (Week 1: 5.2 aDOT), but the rushing floor seems to be there, and that’s how he works his way into my top 12 again this week.
This kid is a born competitor, and while I’m not going to use that narrative, I do think he benefits this week from what should be a competitive game, something neither of these teams will get to say very often.
It’s not perfect, but we are looking at a rare athlete with recklessness in his profile. That’s a concern for Commanders fans, but that’s the blueprint for success in any given week for fantasy managers.
Who Should I Sit in Week 2?
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Okay, so the box score (21 of 29 for 164 yards, zero TDs, zero INT) wasn’t as bad as it looked.
By no means was it good, but Joe Burrow should have had a touchdown pass on consecutive plays; Mike Gesicki couldn’t finish an end-zone target, and Tanner Hudson fumbled on what looked like a sure-fire touchdown. If that happens, this game is tied late in the first half, giving it the potential to be very different the rest of the way.
That, of course, does you no good now.
Can this passing game get on track? The Kansas City Chiefs dialed back their blitz rate in a significant way last week (17.6%, down from 28.6% last season). We will learn with time if it was a Lamar Jackson matchup thing or an absence of L’Jarius Snead thing. But there’s a chance that Burrow will have time to operate if his offensive line can hold up against Kansas City’s front.
Burrow is part of a quarterback tier that extends from QB12-17 this week. Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott will be ranked ahead of him if their weapons return to action, and the argument isn’t hard to make for Baker Mayfield after a big week.
If Burrow is your only quarterback, you’re better off playing him than gambling on the wire, but you’ll likely need the rest of your roster to pick up the slack.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Hand up if you had “Alexander Mattison 31-yard touchdown catch that includes hurdling a defender” on your Week 1 bingo card.
Yeah, me neither. We were under no illusion that White was going to be this highly efficient runner, but we did think his volume would be safe. Now, I’m not so sure.
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White opened the season with carries of zero, zero, and negative-one yard, inspiring nightmares about what we saw from a better runner in Josh Jacobs last season, the year following a 2,000-yard campaign.
I’m worried. In Week 1, Jacobs finished 53.7% below expectations in terms of fantasy point total, a number White nearly matched on Sunday (-48.7%). Factor in that he lost a fumble on his lone explosive run — and that Mattison might be more of a threat than we assumed — and the bottom is at serious risk of falling out.
White, Devin Singletary, and Jerome Ford are clumped at the back end of my Flex tier for this week; while I’m confident they’ll all get their 15+ touches, I’m not sold on any of them reaching 15 fantasy points.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Are we sure Ford is even an average NFL running back? Or is he Rachaad White with less stability under center?
In 2023, no qualified running back gained yardage at a lower rate than Ford, and his 69-yard, 18-touch performance against the Cowboys last week wasn’t exactly inspiring. In keeping with the White comparison, he’s doing enough to justify starting him – he played 72.9% of the snaps and is versatile enough to bail you out with six short-yardage receptions.
The touch count seems to be safe as long as Nick Chubb is on the shelf, and that lands him in the Flex discussion. But with rushing efficiency a long shot and limited scoring equity, I think there’s a better shot he finishes outside of the top 35 running backs this weekend than inside the top 20.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
The receivers obviously have value to gain as Williams finds his NFL legs, but D’Andre Swift’s stock might have the most room to grow as the rookie quarterback develops.
In the season opener, there was nothing in the way of competition for Swift managers to sweat (67.9% snap share, the only Chicago running back to reach even 21%).
The zero receiving yards last week sticks out, but the fact that Swift ran 20 routes provides me with long-term hope. He’ll be better in that regard, likely sooner than later, and I expect his rushing success rate to also correlate with Williams’ comfort level.
Swift’s Week 1 breakdown:
- His 20-yard carry: seven yards gained before contact
- Other 10 rush attempts: negative-one yard before contact
Hang in there. Bell cow roles don’t grow on trees in 2024, and, at the very least, we know Swift has that.
The Houston Texans had the best defense last season in terms of limiting yards per carry, so I’m not sure this is a spot for Swift to live up to the potential I think he will eventually have access to.
Be patient. Or buy low after this week. Better days are ahead of Swift — likely over the next few weeks (IND-LAR-CAR from Week 3 to Week 5).
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
The box score from his Texans debut looks good (WR9 with 21.9 PPR points), but the fact that Stefon Diggs had fewer air yards in that entire game than he averaged per target during his final three seasons with the Buffalo Bills is something I simply can’t shake.
Diggs spent 55.2% of his time on the field last week in the slot, a new role that I think is a sharp move by Houston (he never reached a 31.5% slot rate in Buffalo).
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He was the first Texan with multiple catches in the season opener and was targeted on three of Stroud’s first 10 throws. I’m confident that his value in Houston will be higher than it would have been had he stayed with the Bills.
The lack of a ceiling, however, is worrisome. Down the stretch last season, Diggs’ downfield efficiency faded, and if he truly can’t separate on those routes, what we saw on Sunday is about as good of an outcome as you can possibly hope for.
I’ll take Diggs over George Pickens and any Jacksonville Jaguars receiver this week, though that’s still not enough to land him inside my top 30 at the position.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (vs. IND)
Reed is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game over his past nine contests, a mark that would have been WR6 last season between Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. He also reached 15 PPR points in eight of those contests.
This kid is the real deal and is deserving of the WR1 label for the Packers. He’s a WR2 for fantasy purposes despite a WR3 ADP this summer.
As bullish as I am on the skill set (he looked a lot like Green Bay’s version of Rashee Rice or Zay Flowers in Week 1), the fact of the matter is that we don’t know what this offense is going to look like with Willis under center.
My gut reaction is to assume that the structure of this offense still slants in favor of Reed over his teammates in terms of target hierarchy, but I’m far less confident entering this week than I was entering the season. I’m also less confident, obviously, in the value of those looks.
The Colts allowed 25+ fantasy points to a WR1 five times last season, a sign that they struggle to stop top options. I hate to say it, but for the time being, I’m treating Reed in a similar fashion as Diontae Johnson – a player whose raw talent ranks higher than his projection. He is currently outside of my starting tier at the position.
Like Love, don’t make any rash decisions here. You want to hold onto a player like this. If you don’t roster Reed, you might be able to lowball a trade offer to improve your overall depth.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s breakout at the end of his rookie season (Weeks 13-18):
- 26.6% points over expectation, 2.07 FP/target, 65% slot
Reed down the stretch of his rookie season (Weeks 11-18):
- 33.7% points over expectation, 1.99 FP/target, 66% slot
Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks: Doubs was the first Packer with multiple catches in the Week 1 loss, and he led the receiver room in routes with 33. Watson had 27, and Wicks had 16. Watson saw three end-zone targets against the Eagles, while Wicks was consistently used in two-receiver sets.
The point is that we didn’t learn nearly enough to incorporate any of these options into the starting lineup conversation. That would have been my take if Love was under center, and, of course, with him sidelined, I only feel stronger about that label.
Keep an eye on target share and formations this weekend. Maybe this offense will be retooled in such a way that one of these talented options is in an advantageous spot with Willis taking snaps.
Maybe.
Even if you believe this occurs, you’re taking this week off to evaluate.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
There is a lot of talent bubbling beneath Pickens’ surface. The question is whether the quarterback play can elevate him to a meaningful space for our purposes.
I’m not shedding light on anything new by saying that; it just is what it is.
Over the course of an entire NFL game in 2024 against a defense that ranked below average in opponent passer rating last season, Pickens was the only Pittsburgh Steeler with a catch that gained more than 10 yards.
Think about that. The New England Patriots-Cincinnati Bengals game may have been the most boring from an offensive point of view last weekend, and six players in that game had a catch gaining more than 10 yards.
In theory, you’d think that Pickens is a better fit for a Russell Wilson-led offense. From a deep ball perspective, that makes sense, but I’d give a Justin Fields-led unit more scoring equity, so I’m not sure who is under center makes a big difference for Pickens.
The Denver Broncos didn’t give up a 20-yard completion to any of the Seattle Seahawks’ receivers last week. Both top receivers in this game project as high-upside players that will have big weeks this year, but I’m not comfortable plugging either in this week over talented young players like Jameson Williams, Xavier Worthy, or Brian Thomas Jr.