Week 12 NFL Player Props: Over/under betting analysis

Pro Football Network and Against The Spread co-host Jason Sarney identifies his Week 12 NFL player props picks and over/under marks led by Julio Jones

The heater continues with statistical over/under bets in 2019, and the Week 12 NFL player props slate is ready for another profitable weekend! Thanks to a Lamar Jackson Player Prop Play of the Week hit from his Week 11 masterpiece, the yearly profit margin continues to creep north, while the actual win-loss record is a solid 42-38. 

With one final week of byes to account for, there is a gem or two lurking in backfields out there, and this piece will feature a pair of play props over/under bets that are ripe for the taking and are heavily recommended in daily fantasy plays. 

Before the risk-reward plays, let’s begin with what has worked all season long, The Player Props Play of the Week, which is hitting at 10-5 so far this season. The POTW picks account for any play warranting a double-unit boost of confidence. If you’re planning to bet on NFL odds this weekend, here’s everything you need to know.

Player Props of the Week – Jones’ing Julio 

Julio Soars on Sunday

Although you truly do not know what you will be getting week-to-week with the disappointing Atlanta Falcons, lately, they have been playing well and winning games. With a divisional battle against Tampa Bay, looking for winning ways to continue, and that victory could come with loads of help from Julio Jones

Jones is drawing the league’s second-worst secondary in terms of yardage allowed in the air, with the Bucs giving up 290.9 passing yards per game so far this season. Matt Ryan is a yardage machine, even in an overall “off-year,” so look for his go-to-target to get extra juice Sunday. 

Even though Jones’ running mate in Calvin Ridley is heating up, this can only help Jones as more attention will have to be paid to the young rising star. The reception total may be less than a usual Jones explosive performance, especially with Ridley earning more targets. However, getting this play at over/under 98.5 is too enticing not to play. 

It is as safe a play as they can get this week in the wide receiver world, asking Julio to get 100-yards against the hapless Tampa Bay secondary. 

Week 12 NFL player props over/under: Julio Jones OVER 98.5 receiving yards – NFL Odds – (112) 2 Units

Bo to Scar the Skins

Bo Scarbrough, the rookie runner from Alabama, made his NFL debut last week fresh off the practice squad. He performed well with 55 yards on 14 carries and a score, with a respectable 3.9 yards per carry. His performance should give him an equal opportunity at mid-teen level carries, and with the porous Washington Redskins rush defense, a home game won’t save them from being on the short end of the sticks Sunday. 

It seems the team is ready to pack it in for the winter in Washington, and a Matthew Stafford-less Detroit Lions team may have to rely on the rookie on the road. The odds are that Jeff Driskel will not be slaying the Skins through the air, so look for a steady ground attack against a team yielding 4.1 yards per carry against opposing rushers. 

Mathematically, it makes complete sense that a decent work-load for him will get him a very low over/under coverage of 53.5 rushing yards. He could even make it two games in a row with a touchdown to start his career. 

Week 12 NFL player props over/under: Bo Scarbrough OVER 53.5 rushing yards – NFL Odds – (-108) 1 Unit

Let Laird Loose and Bench Ballage

There is one thing you have all yet to see in this series. That being an actual “under” play. This is not the place for rooting for attrition, until now. 

Miami Dolphins running back Kalen Ballage is playing like he wants to show the XFL it is better to rule in Hell in a Cell than it is to serve in heaven on Earth; the NFL. 

Ballage has been historically bad, and rookie running back Patrick Laird is lurking, waiting to be set free in both rushing and receiving alike. The undrafted rookie from Cal has gotten an opportunity thanks to trades, turmoil, and terrible play from Ballage. 

Laird has not yet made a true rushing impression, with just three carries in two games. However, he was targeted six times out of the backfield against Buffalo last week and caught all six balls for 51 yards. He has hauled in all eight of the passes thrown his way, so he is certainly proving he can move the sticks. 

At the time of writing this article, there are no Laird props seen, yet there is a Kalen Ballage under play. Look for Laird to take over for Ballage, thus making rooting for under 13.5 carries for the incumbent starter a bit easier of a pill to swallow. 

This number is questionable, as Ballage has only hit double-digit rushing attempts once this season, and that was two weeks ago. Last week, he had those carries split in half, and despite a touchdown, he was awful. He had more carries (9) than he had rushing yards (8).

Look for Ballage to see more bench than the ball on Sunday, while Laird makes a play for fantasy playoff push immortality in PPR leagues.  

Week 12 NFL player props over/under: Kalen Ballage UNDER 13.5 rushing attempts- NFL Odds – (-136) 1 Unit


Landry Looking for The Last Laugh

The Cleveland Browns are their own circus recently, and there is another traveling road-show with issues coming to town on Sunday. There are plenty of story-lines in this one, including the most obvious. 

Former Miami Dolphin, Jarvis Landry, is a year and a half into his tenure in Cleveland after his self-imposed exodus from South Florida. So this is not a “revenge-game” per-say, as the main “beef” from Landry towards Miami probably is weighted most with the New York Jets Head Coach Adam Gase. 

Whatever the reasons or motives, it is a very safe bet that Landry is whispering in the ear of Baker Mayfield to make sure he makes his former organization miss him dearly, even if he showed limited desire to call Miami a career destination for him. 

The yardage over/under line for Landry is minuscule when considering the Dolphins are without Xavien Howard, who has been shut down for more than a month and the recent injured-reserve designations to secondary staples Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain. 

Landry should easily cover this yardage number of 60.5 yards, as he has gone over that mark in six of his ten games this year.

He could even find the end-zone early followed by a tone-setting, score-settling dance. This dance will be followed by a fifteen-yard excessive celebration penalty. 

Week 12 NFL player props over/under: Jarvis Landry OVER 60.5 receiving yards – NFL Odds (-112) 1 unit

Other Week 12 NFL Player Props Plays

Week 12 NFL player props over/under: Mike Evans OVER 93.5 receiving yards – NFL Odds (-112) 1 unit

Week 12 NFL player props over/under: Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 passing TDs – NFL Odds (-108) 1 unit

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