Week 11 was another week where we were close to making a big chunk of profit. As it turned out, we went 3-2 on the week, making a minor profit, but a profit nonetheless. Week 12 brings us four of the better teams offensively this season on a bye, which hampers some of our more favorable options. However, we still have 14 games this week to pick from, so let’s see what we learned last week before diving into the Week 12 NFL game totals picks.
Week 11 lessons
Let’s start with the positive. The Atlanta Falcons defense has arrived. For the second week in a row, they shut down an opposing offense and simply suffocated the life out of them with turnovers. One thing I will say is that the Carolina Panthers did move the ball, but the Falcons just turned the ball over at crucial times. Those two elements scare me this week when we are looking at the matchup between the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I can see the Buccaneers moving the ball with ease, but Jameis Winston is a turnover machine, so who knows how often he will find the end zone.
The other half of that was the Carolina Panthers, whose offense has fallen apart the last couple of weeks. Kyle Allen has gone from not turning the ball over to be a turnover machine. This week they face a New Orleans Saints defense that can stifle teams, and another low scoring performance from the Panthers would not be a surprise to me.
The other victory came thanks to the pathetic showing between the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears in LA on Sunday Night Football. Right now, those two offenses are a joke, while both defenses are more than formidable. Both teams are a consideration for picking the under every single time out.
Last week’s two losses came thanks to the pathetic offensive showing from the Houston Texans. They were not close to covering their team total of 22.5, but frustratingly we were just 1.5 points short on the overall total. Things might have been very different if the DPI call on DeAndre Hopkins had gone another way, but we cannot dwell on such things. Right now, all we can take is that the Ravens defense might legitimately be a top-10 unit for the rest of the year. As for the Texans, I expect an immediate bounce-back.Through 14 weeks of the NFL season (minus MNF on 12/9), the PFN betting group has over 25 units of profit (~625$). With your All-Access Pass, you have an exclusive look at our running record of best bets, not to mention 24/7 availability of the betting group should you have an individualized question. Sign up for the All-Access Pass that'll pay for itself and more.
Week 12 totals and picks
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
We saw the Texans offense get pulled to shreds last week. Now, I do not see the Colts attacking the Texans in the same way. Starting with the fact they do not have Lamar Jackson. However, the Texans secondary is reeling, and if Brissett has time in the pocket, he should be able to pick them apart. The good news for the Colts is they have a great offensive line, and Brissett should get that time he needs.
My YPP metric has the Colts for 22/23 points, but that number is somewhat influenced by the Jaguars’ pathetic offensive showing against the Texans in London. With Brissett under center, the Colts have scored 23 or more points in five of his eight games. Two of the three they did not were against good defenses in the Titans and Broncos, and the third was due to game script against the Chiefs.
1u – Indianapolis Colts Over 20.5 Total Points | +100
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
I cannot tell you how low this game would have to be for me to consider not taking it. 35? I’ll still have the under. 30? Yeah, I might still take the under. I do not see how either of these teams move the ball effectively. The Giants offense has been fine but against bad defenses. The best defenses they have faced have been the Bills, Patriots, and Vikings. They scored a total of 38 points in those three games, and two of them were at home.
As for the Bears, they should have more chances to move the ball this week, but can they? They managed just 20 points against the mediocre Detroit defense. Even when they scored 31 in Week 3 against Washington, it was in large part because of their defense was giving them unbelievably good field positions. My only caveat here might come if Chase Daniel is under center. He at least looked capable of moving the ball in a couple of his games this season. Even then, they only scored 37 points in his two games, and even if the Bears get to 21, do we think the Giants score 20? I do not, and my YPP agrees, rounding this game out with a prediction of 35 points.
1u – Under 40.5 Total Points | +100
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
This game had the makings of a classic if the Panthers had not dropped three of their last four games. Now with the Saints sitting three games clear, this game can only offer at the hope of potential excitement to come down the line. The Panthers offense has crumbled since their bye week, totaling just 62 points in the last four weeks. Now they face a Saints defense that has held opponents to under 20 points in four of their last seven games.
The Saints offense should have more chance to move the ball, but the Panthers defense is at least a solid unit. This game has the makings of one which limps along while leading to the third game in a row in this matchup with less than 40 points scored.
1u – Over 46.5 Total Points | -110
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
What can you say about this game? The Steelers defense should dominate the woeful Bengals offense. However, the Steelers offense is down to bare bones and wants to just get through this game healthy. Expect to see a lot of runs from the Steelers in this one, who simply want to get out of Cincinnati still in the playoff race. Unless the Steelers score multiple defensive touchdowns, this game is a relatively easy under pick, even with a line below 40.
1u – Under 39 Total Points | -110
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
I think the Packers are hugely underestimated in this one. This line is acting as though the 49ers have not allowed an average of 26 points in the last three weeks. The Packers should be able to move the ball against the 49ers defense, especially with an extra week for Rodgers and the offense to get things clicking. The last time we saw the Packers in California, they crumbled in Los Angeles, but that was just the second time this season we have seen the Packers fail to get over 20 points.
1u – Green Bay Packers Over 20.5 Total Points | -120
Ben Rolfe is an NFL picks writer and editor at PFN. You can follow him @benrolfe15 on twitter. For more gambling information and all of our writers NFL Week 11 picks, make sure to get our All-Access Pass! Follow us on Twitter for more great content @PFN365.