The Cincinnati Bengals are notoriously bad starters in the Joe Burrow era. Per TruMedia, the Bengals are 1-9 since 2020 in Weeks 1 and 2 of the season. In those games, they have the second-worst offensive expected points added (EPA) and tied for the sixth-worst turnover margin (-7). In those 10 games, they have covered in only three of them showing it isn’t necessarily due to opponent quality either.
The saving grace is that in Week 3s since 2020, they are 4-0 against the spread, 3-0-1 straight up, and have the third-best turnover margin (+7).
Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bengals -7 - Moneyline
Bengals (-325); Commanders (+260) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
Commanders vs. Bengals Preview and Prediction
Surprisingly, the Washington Commanders rank second in the league in offensive EPA and sixth in success rate. Some of this can be attributed to facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants defenses that are ranked 23rd and 14th, respectively, in defensive EPA. The other driving factor has been Kliff Kingsbury’s ability to call plays that feature the strengths of Jayden Daniels.
Daniels ranks fifth among quarterbacks in rushing EPA and second in scramble EPA. TruMedia has Daniels charted at 11 designed runs throughout his first two games, which ranks tied for fourth behind guys who have already played their third game. His biggest weakness is typically holding the ball for too long and taking sacks. While he ranks 22nd of 35 quarterbacks in sack EPA, he hasn’t been nearly as bad as he was in college.
Unfortunately for the Bengals, their defense ranks 30th in defensive EPA on plays where the quarterback scrambles. Even worse, this isn’t because they faced Patrick Mahomes. They ranked similarly against both the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots this year. The Bengals defense will have to focus on keeping Daniels in the pocket and getting pressure.
This is also the perfect “get right” game for the Bengals offense. The Commanders rank 20th in generating pressure and have corners that have been abysmal this season. The Commanders’ defense ranks second-worst in defensive EPA and dead last in passing defensive EPA.
Of 230 players with over 20 routes run, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans ranked 14th and 20th in yards per route run against the Commanders’ defense, respectively. Malik Nabers in Week 2 ranked fourth.
This could be because all three of these players are just really good. To account for that, I looked at their success in non-Commanders games. Nabers ranked 51st in his game against the Minnesota Vikings and Evans ranked 35th against the Detroit Lions.
This seems like a tough game to bet on. Coming into it I expected to find evidence in support of a Bengals blowout that should help them gain confidence after a terrible start to the season. Now, I leave with the opinion that the Commanders will at least cover and their should be a lot of points scored.
My picks: Commanders +7, Over 46.5, Ja’Marr Chase 80+ Receiving Yards (-145),
Potential pick: Tee Higgins 50+ Receiving Yards (+110)