As we move deeper into the second half of the 2024 NFL season, the postseason starts to come into view. The Washington Commanders were projected to finish last in the NFC East but find themselves in the mix for the NFC East. Let’s examine the Commanders’ playoff odds and various scenarios.
Can the Commanders Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Washington Commanders are 7-4 and now have a 75.0% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 1.6% chance for the 1 seed, a 14.8% chance for the second seed, an 8.1% chance for the third seed, a 0.4% chance for the fourth seed, a 7.0% chance for the fifth seed, a 19.2% chance for the sixth seed, and a 23.9% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Commanders Win the NFC East?
Here’s what the NFC East race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Philadelphia Eagles have a 75.1% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Washington Commanders have a 24.9% chance to win the NFC East.
- The Dallas Cowboys have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
- The New York Giants have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC East.
Current NFC East Standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
- Washington Commanders (7-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
- New York Giants (2-8)
Commanders’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Commanders win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Washington has a 2.3% chance to win it all.
Commanders’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Week 13: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 18: at Dallas Cowboys
Commanders-Eagles Week 11 Recap
The Eagles played one of their worst offensive halves of the season in the first half, scoring only three points. A pair of missed field goals from Jake Elliott (who later missed an extra point) didn’t help. However, Philly totally turned around its performance in the fourth quarter, scoring three straight touchdowns to close it out.
Eagles’ offense vs. Commanders, Week 11:
- First three quarters: Six points, 5.0 yards per play, and -0.04 EPA per play
- Fourth quarter: 20 points, 11.1 yards per play, and 1.12 EPA per play
Per usual, the Eagles’ offensive resurgence largely came on the back of Saquon Barkley. The superstar running back accounted for 198 scrimmage yards and touchdowns from 23 and 39 yards out.
As terrific as Derrick Henry has been for the Baltimore Ravens, Barkley has a very compelling argument as the most valuable non-quarterback this season. He’s accounted for 33.5% of the Eagles’ scrimmage yards this season, the highest of any player for any team this season.
Overall, Barkley is up to 1,347 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Since the 1970 merger, he’s the fifth player to record at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns in his first 10 games with a franchise, joining:
- 2016 Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)
- 2007 Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
- 1983 Eric Dickerson (Los Angeles Rams)
- 1980 Billy Sims (Detroit Lions)
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense continued its ascension into one of the game’s top units. Jayden Daniels was held to -0.12 EPA per play, a season-low. In addition, his 73.4 grade in PFN’s QB+ metric was his second-worst of the season. Top receiver Terry McLaurin couldn’t even garner a target in the first half and finished with a season-low 10 yards on a single catch.
It’s an astounding turnaround for an Eagles squad that began the season 2-2, leading to calls for Nick Sirianni’s job. Six straight wins later, Philly looks like the strongest challenger to the Lions for home-field advantage in the NFC.
Washington remains in a strong position for a playoff berth, which is still a remarkable achievement considering where this franchise has been in recent seasons. It’s still a slight disappointment at the moment though, as two straight losses have dropped their odds to win the division from 78.6% two weeks ago to 26.5% after Thursday.